AA Alcoa Corp
Price Chart
Executive Summary
UBS upgraded Alcoa Corp (AA) from Neutral to Buy on May 22, 2026, raising its price target from $75 to $80. The call is part of a cluster of 17 firms recently acting on AA, with multiple upgrades from Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan over the past six weeks. Consensus is strongly bullish: 74% of 23 analysts rate AA Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target of $82.25 implying 19.6% upside from the current $68.77. UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,084 calls and a 67% accuracy on its 9 AA calls, placing it above average among covering firms. EPS estimates have been revised upward across all periods, with current-year EPS rising from $7.17 to $7.66 over 30 days. Institutional activity confirms the bullish tilt: FMR LLC doubled its position to $852M, and Invesco added 50.2% to $240M, while short interest sits at a high 59.2% ratio. The combination of analyst upgrades, rising estimates, and institutional accumulation creates a favorable setup for AA, though the elevated short interest adds a potential squeeze catalyst.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 23 analysts covering AA, 6 rate it Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. That gives a 74% bullish rating (Buy/Strong Buy), a 22% neutral rating, and a 4% bearish rating. The consensus is decisively bullish.
The mean price target is $82.25, median $79.3, high $152, and low $52. At the current price of $68.77, the mean target implies 19.6% upside. UBS's $80 target is slightly above the median but below the mean, placing it in the middle of the consensus range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | UBS | upgrade | Buy | — |
| 2026-05-07 | Wells Fargo | upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 2026-04-09 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | — |
| 2026-04-09 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | — |
| 2026-04-09 | Morgan Stanley | upgrade | Overweight | — |
| 2026-04-07 | B. Riley Securities | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-03-16 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-03-13 | JP Morgan | upgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-12 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | — |
| 2026-01-30 | Freedom Broker | maintain | Buy | — |
In the last 30 days, AA has seen 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: current-year EPS estimates rose from $7.17 to $7.66 (30-day change), next-year from $6.70 to $7.32, and next-quarter from $1.99 to $2.19. Revisions up outnumber revisions down across all periods.
Firm Track Record — UBS
UBS accuracy: 55% on 5084 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freedom Broker | 100% | 2/2 | 62.2% | top tier |
| Wolfe Research | 100% | 2/2 | 44.7% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 100% | 2/2 | 35% | top tier |
| B. Riley Securities | 83% | 10/12 | 22% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 78% | 7/9 | 25.2% | top tier |
| UBS | 67% | 6/9 | 16% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 18.1% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 58% | 7/12 | 11.2% | above average |
| Jefferies | 50% | 2/4 | -6.1% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | -4.8% | below average |
UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,084 scored calls with an average return of 4.6%, categorized as top tier vs. average. On AA specifically, UBS is 6-for-9 (67% accuracy). Among covering firms, top performers include Freedom Broker (100% on 2 calls), Wolfe Research (100% on 2), Wells Fargo (100% on 2), B. Riley Securities (83% on 12), and JP Morgan (78% on 9). Lower accuracy firms include BofA Securities (25% on 4) and Jefferies (50% on 4).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $7.66 | $5.48 — $9.22 | $15.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $7.32 | $3.35 — $10.19 | $15.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.19 | $1.68 — $2.52 | $3.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.34 | $1.97 — $2.62 | $4.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional trades were reported. Institutional activity shows strong buying: FMR LLC doubled its position (+160.6%, $852M), Invesco added 50.2% ($240M), and Horizon Investments added 28.5% ($11.8M). Bank of America trimmed 50.8% ($59M). Short interest is 59.2% of float, a high level that could amplify upside moves. The institutional buying aligns with the bullish analyst signal, while the elevated short interest introduces a potential squeeze dynamic.
Actionable Insight
The UBS upgrade joins a wave of positive analyst actions and institutional accumulation, with EPS estimates rising across the board. Traders should view this as a bullish signal, but the high short interest suggests a potential squeeze catalyst if upcoming earnings confirm the trend.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 15, 2026
5d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $71.38 $74.57 | ▲ +4.47% | ▲ +3.81% | $59.37 (−16.83%) |
|
Jun 11, 2026
9d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $68.77 $64.16 | ▼ −6.70% | ▼ −8.47% | $59.37 (−13.67%) |
|
May 11, 2026
5w ago
|
8-K
| $67.64 $67.62 | ▼ −0.03% | ▼ −0.56% | $59.37 (−12.22%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
9w ago
|
8-K
| $65.61 $66.54 | ▲ +1.42% | ▲ +1.61% | $59.37 (−9.51%) |
|
Mar 24, 2026
12w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $58.69 $57.45 | ▼ −2.11% | ▼ −0.34% | $59.37 (+1.17%) |
|
Mar 19, 2026
13w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $56.15 $55.89 | ▼ −0.46% | ▼ −1.57% | $59.37 (+5.74%) |
|
Mar 19, 2026
13w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $56.15 $55.89 | ▼ −0.46% | ▼ −1.57% | $59.37 (+5.74%) |
|
Mar 19, 2026
13w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $56.15 $55.89 | ▼ −0.46% | ▼ −1.57% | $59.37 (+5.74%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
16w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $64.07 $63.82 | ▼ −0.39% | ▲ +0.52% | $59.37 (−7.33%) |
US Market Status
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