AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Redburn Atlantic upgraded AAP to Neutral from Sell on June 3, 2025, raising its price target to $45 from $28 — a 61% increase. The move is part of a 4-firm cluster action including Goldman Sachs, BMO Capital, and Wedbush. Redburn's accuracy is 50% on 115 calls, average return 5.8%, placing it in the middle of the pack. Consensus is heavily tilted to Hold: 25 Hold, 7 Sell, 2 Strong Buy, 1 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $57.16, median $59, with a high of $70 and low of $31. Current price $51.83 implies 10.3% upside to the mean. No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are modestly positive — 4 up, 0 down for the current fiscal year. No insider or congressional trades reported. Institutional activity is mixed: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+1018.8%), while Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo trimmed significantly. Short interest is elevated at 69.9% of off-exchange volume. The next earnings date is May 21, 2026 — not imminent. The upgrade from a Sell to Neutral is a modest positive but not a strong contrarian signal from a mid-tier firm. Impact adjustment: +1.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily skewed to Hold: 25 Hold, 7 Sell, 2 Strong Buy, 1 Strong Sell (35 analysts total). The consensus is cautious but not bearish — the majority see limited upside. Redburn's upgrade to Neutral aligns with the consensus rather than diverging from it.
Mean price target $57.16, median $59, high $70, low $31. Current price $51.83 implies 10.3% upside to the mean. Redburn's $45 target is well below the mean and median, ranking as the second-lowest among 19 analysts. This is a below-consensus target even after the 61% hike.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $59.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $55.00 |
| 2026-05-12 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $57.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $63.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $47.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $57.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $60.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $50.00 |
| 2026-02-11 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $60.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $47.00 |
No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are modestly positive: 4 upward revisions vs 0 downward for the current fiscal year, and 2 up vs 0 down for the next quarter. Estimates are trending slightly higher, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias.
Firm Track Record — Redburn Atlantic
Redburn Atlantic accuracy: 50% on 115 calls | avg return: 5.8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | 75% | 3/4 | 11.9% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 67% | 2/3 | 24.7% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 14% | top tier |
| UBS | 63% | 5/8 | 15% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 60% | 3/5 | 6.3% | above average |
| TD Cowen | 50% | 1/2 | 1.4% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 2/4 | 1% | below average |
| Wedbush | 50% | 3/6 | -0.5% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 2/4 | 4.8% | below average |
| Roth Capital | 50% | 1/2 | 1.7% | below average |
Redburn Atlantic has a 50% accuracy rate on 115 calls with an average return of 5.8%. This is average among firms covering AAP. Top-tier firms include RBC Capital (75% on 4 calls, avg return 11.9%), Goldman Sachs (67% on 3 calls, avg return 24.7%), and BMO Capital (67% on 3 calls, avg return 14%). Bottom-tier firms include JP Morgan (33% on 3 calls, avg return -17.7%) and Mizuho (40% on 5 calls, avg return -6.4%). Redburn's upgrade is not from a top-tier firm.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: May 21, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $3.93 | $3.41 — $4.46 | $8.8B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.83 | $0.68 — $1.16 | $2.0B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.44 | $0.08 — $0.77 | $2.6B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.77 | $2.44 — $3.24 | $8.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional activity reported. Institutional changes are mixed: Renaissance Technologies doubled its position (+1018.8%, $5.6M), while Morgan Stanley (-40.8%), Wells Fargo (-65.8%), and UBS (-31.8%) trimmed. Short interest is elevated at 69.9% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish sentiment among short sellers. The analyst upgrade diverges from the short interest signal but aligns with the positive EPS revision trend.
Actionable Insight
Redburn's upgrade from Sell to Neutral removes a bearish outlier but does not signal strong conviction — the $45 target remains well below consensus. Traders should view this as a modest positive but wait for a stronger catalyst (e.g., earnings beat or insider buying) before adding long exposure.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 21, 2026
24d ago
|
8-K
| $58.10 $60.18 | ▲ +3.58% | ▲ +1.73% | $60.80 (+4.65%) |
|
May 18, 2026
27d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $51.68 $52.80 | ▲ +2.17% | ▲ +1.00% | $60.80 (+17.65%) |
|
Apr 1, 2026
10w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $51.70 $54.59 | ▲ +5.59% | ▲ +1.97% | $60.80 (+17.60%) |
US Market Status
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