ADBE ADOBE INC.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Mizuho double-downgraded ADBE from Outperform to Neutral on April 27, slashing its price target by 14% to $270, well below the consensus mean of $327.28. The call comes from a below-average accuracy firm (43% on 7 scored calls with -1.1% avg return) and aligns with a broader bearish tilt from William Blair and Argus in recent weeks, though the consensus remains mixed with 45.7% Buy, 45.7% Hold, and 8.7% Sell across 46 analysts. ADBE's current price of $240.49 offers 12.3% upside to Mizuho's target but 36.1% to the consensus mean — a wide gap. EPS estimates have edged up over the last 30 days (3 upward revisions vs 0 down for the current quarter), diverging from the analyst downgrade cycle. Insider selling is pronounced, with CEO Shantanu Narayen selling $12.5 million on April 28, while institutional flows show a massive new $2.27 billion position by Norges Bank and accumulation by Dodge & Cox. Short interest sits at an elevated 62.2% by ratio, reinforcing bearish positioning. The downgrade is directionally correct in the near term given weak momentum, but upward earnings revisions and large institutional buying create a contrarian tension for active traders.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Out of 46 analysts covering ADBE, 10 rate it Strong Buy, 11 Buy (21 total bullish = 45.7%), 21 Hold (45.7%), and 4 Sell (8.7%). The consensus leans neutral-to-bullish, making Mizuho's downgrade to Neutral a shift toward the middle of the pack. The sell-side is still broadly positive, but the skew toward Hold has been rising.

Mean price target is $327.28, median $314.76, with a high of $487 and a low of $220. At $240.49, ADBE trades 26.5% below the mean, implying 36.1% upside. Mizuho's $270 target ranks in the bottom quartile, 17.5% below the median and 21% below the mean, placing it among the more bearish outliers alongside Goldman Sachs' $220 Sell target.

Recent Analyst Activity

No upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days besides Mizuho's April 27 action. However, prior downgrades from William Blair (Outperform to Market Perform, March 26) and Argus (Buy to Hold, March 16) show a negative trend. Despite this, EPS revisions are positive: current-quarter estimates saw 2 upward revisions in the last 7 days and 3 in 30 days (0 down), and next quarter similarly shows 2 up/0 down in 7 days. Full-year 2026 estimates have 3 upward revisions over 30 days, 0 down. Analyst sentiment is diverging from estimates — downgrades but rising EPS forecasts.

Firm Track Record — Mizuho

Mizuho accuracy: 52% on 2227 calls | avg return: 4.7%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Mizuho scores 43% accuracy on 7 ADBE calls with an average return of -1.1%, ranking it below average among covering firms. Top performers include JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls, avg return +2.9%), Evercore ISI (83% on 6, +4.5%), and TD Cowen (67% on 3, +1.7%). Weakest firms include RBC Capital (35% on 17, -5.2%) and Oppenheimer (36% on 11, -4.1%). Mizuho's downgrade carries less conviction given its below-average record.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 10, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades are heavily bearish: CEO Shantanu Narayen sold $12.5 million on April 28, and two other insiders sold smaller amounts. This aligns with the Mizuho downgrade. Congressional activity is mildly bullish (two small buys by Democrat members on April 13-14). Institutional flows show a major new $2.27 billion position by Norges Bank, plus adds by Dodge & Cox (+35.8%) and Cullen Capital (+45.6%), partially offset by a Wells Fargo trim (-42.9%) followed by an add (+33.1%). Short interest is elevated at 62.2% by ratio, indicating heavy bearish positioning that converges with the downgrade. The combination of insider selling, high short interest, and analyst downgrades is bearish, but massive institutional buying by Norges creates a notable divergence.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status