ADBE ADOBE INC.

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Executive Summary

Keybanc upgraded Adobe (ADBE) from Underweight to Sector Weight on March 21, 2025, as part of a cluster of 14 analyst firms revising ratings on the stock. Keybanc did not set a price target, limiting the signal's strength but removing a bearish outlier—it was one of only four Sell-equivalent ratings. Consensus remains mixed: 22 Buy/Strong Buy (49%), 19 Hold (42%), 4 Sell (9%) from 45 analysts. The mean price target of $327.96 implies 33.3% upside from the current $246.10, though the range is wide ($220–$487). Keybanc's accuracy is 52% on 1,560 calls with a +3.3% average return, placing it mid-tier among ADBE analysts. EPS estimates are being revised upward across all near-term periods (0q, +1q), with no downward revisions in the last 7 days. However, insider selling is heavy—CFO Shantanu Narayen sold $12.5M in late April—and short interest is elevated at 59.3% of float. The upgrade aligns with positive estimate momentum but diverges from insider and short signals. Bottom line: the upgrade is a modest positive for sentiment but lacks conviction without a PT.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus: 22 Buy/Strong Buy (49%), 19 Hold (42%), 4 Sell (9%) from 45 analysts. The consensus leans slightly bullish but with a large hold contingent, indicating uncertainty. The upgrade brings the bearish count down but the stock remains in a neutral-to-bullish range.

Mean PT $327.96, median $314.76, high $487, low $220 (34 analysts). Current price $246.10 implies 33.3% upside to mean. Keybanc did not set a PT, so its view is not included in the consensus range. The mean PT is significantly above current price, suggesting analysts see value, but the wide range (high $487 vs low $220) reflects disagreement.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Keybanc) and 1 downgrade (Mizuho). However, the broader cluster saw 14 firms act on ADBE, with multiple downgrades from William Blair, Argus, and Mizuho. EPS revisions are trending positive: 2 upward revisions in the last 7 days for next quarter and current quarter, with no downward revisions. Estimates for FY0 and FY1 have also been slightly revised up.

Firm Track Record — Keybanc

Keybanc accuracy: 52% on 1560 calls | avg return: 3.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Keybanc has a 52% accuracy rate on 1,560 rated calls with an average return of +3.3%. This places them in the mid-tier compared to other firms covering ADBE; top-tier firms like JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls) and Evercore ISI (83% on 6 calls) have smaller sample sizes. Higher-accuracy firms such as TD Cowen (67%) and Morgan Stanley (60%) have not recently updated ADBE. Keybanc's average return is positive, but its accuracy is not standout.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 10, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades show significant selling: CFO Shantanu Narayen sold $12.5M in late April, and another insider sold $331K. Congressional trades are mixed with two buys and one sell. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank opened a $2.27B position, Dodge & Cox added 35.8%, while Wells Fargo trimmed 42.9% then added 33.1%. Short interest is high at 59.3% of float, indicating bearish sentiment. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and high short interest, but aligns with positive EPS revisions and some institutional buying.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status