ADBE ADOBE INC.

NEUTRAL Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 5d 8h ago SEC analyst-ADBE-keybanc-20250321
14 firms acted on ADBE: William Blair, Argus Research, Barclays, Piper Sandler, Oppenheimer, BMO Capital, Jefferies, Keybanc, Morgan Stanley, Redburn Atlantic, Keybanc, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Melius Research
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d ⚠ clustered
ADBE ▼ -1.17% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -1.17% · α vs SPY -7.06% · entry $387.02 → $382.51
Currently $251.44 · -35.03% from $387.02 entry
Entry anchored
Mar 21, 10:38 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.72%
call +1.72% · α -0.01%
$393.66
settled 15mo ago
T+5d
-0.44%
call -0.44% · α +1.08%
$385.33
settled 15mo ago
T+20d
-11.31%
call -11.31% · α -2.40%
$343.25
settled 14mo ago
T+60d
-1.17%
call -1.17% · α -7.06%
$382.51
settled 12mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Keybanc upgraded ADBE to Sector Weight from Underweight on March 21, 2025, as part of a 14-firm cluster action. Keybanc has a 52% accuracy rate on 1,560 calls with an average return of 3.3%, placing it near the median among covering firms. Consensus on ADBE is mixed: 21 of 46 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 Hold, and 4 Sell. The mean price target of $327.28 implies 26.3% upside from the current $259.21, with a wide range from $220 to $487. The upgrade is a modest directional shift from a bearish stance, but the lack of a price target and the firm's average accuracy limit its impact. Insider selling has been notable, with CEO Shantanu Narayen selling $12.5M on April 28, 2026, and other executives selling smaller amounts, which diverges from the bullish analyst signal. Earnings are due June 10, 2026, adding a near-term catalyst. The bottom line: this is a routine, consensus-aligned upgrade from a mid-tier firm, offering limited actionable edge.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+0
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
21 (46%)
Hold
21
Sell / Strong Sell
4
Total Analysts
34
Mean PT
$327.28
Median PT
$314.76
High PT
$487.00
Low PT
$220.00
Current Price
$259.21
Implied Upside
+26.3%

Consensus is mixed: 10 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 21 Hold, 4 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 46 analysts. The majority (54%) are neutral or bearish, with 46% bullish. This is a relatively balanced consensus, indicating no strong directional conviction on ADBE.

Current price: $259.21. Mean target: $327.28 (26.3% upside). Median: $314.76. High: $487. Low: $220. Keybanc did not provide a price target, so its view sits below the consensus mean and median, aligning with the lower end of the range.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-27 Mizuho downgrade Neutral $270.00
2026-04-22 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $350.00
2026-04-17 UBS maintain Neutral $260.00
2026-04-17 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $350.00
2026-04-13 BTIG initiate Neutral
2026-03-26 William Blair downgrade Market Perform
2026-03-16 Citigroup maintain Neutral $278.00
2026-03-16 Goldman Sachs maintain Sell $220.00
2026-03-16 Argus Research downgrade Hold
2026-03-13 UBS maintain Neutral $290.00

30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades, indicating a quiet period. EPS revisions are slightly positive: 3 upward revisions vs 0 downward in the last 30 days for the current quarter, and 1 up vs 2 down for next year. Estimates are generally stable, with no strong revision trend.

Firm Track Record — Keybanc

Keybanc accuracy: 52% on 1560 calls | avg return: 3.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
JP Morgan 100% 2/2 2.9% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 83% 5/6 4.5% top tier
TD Cowen 67% 2/3 1.7% top tier
Morgan Stanley 60% 3/5 -5.3% above average
BMO Capital 55% 6/11 -2.8% above average
JMP Securities 50% 3/6 -1.9% below average
Piper Sandler 50% 4/8 -3.7% below average
Citizens Capital Markets 50% 1/2 0.2% below average
Baird 50% 2/4 -2.2% below average
Deutsche Bank 50% 1/2 -13.3% below average

Keybanc has a 52% accuracy on 1,560 scored calls with an average return of 3.3%, placing it near the median among covering firms. Top performers include JP Morgan (100% on 2 calls) and Evercore ISI Group (83% on 6 calls). Worst performers include RBC Capital (35% on 17 calls) and Oppenheimer (36% on 11 calls). Keybanc's track record is average, reducing the significance of this call.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 10, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $5.83 $5.62 — $5.99 $6.5B ↑2 ↓0
+1q $5.77 $5.61 — $6.25 $6.5B ↑2 ↓0
0y $23.55 $23.27 — $24.78 $26.1B ↑1 ↓0
+1y $26.39 $24.07 — $28.52 $28.4B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 3 sells
Congressional
Gilbert Cisneros (democrat) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Ro Khanna (democrat) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN — trim (-42.9%)
Institutional
DODGE & COX — add (35.8%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,558,456 | Exempt: 1,603 | TRF Vol: 2,808,657 | Short Ratio: 55.5% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trades show significant selling: CEO Shantanu Narayen sold $12.5M on April 28, 2026, and other executives sold smaller amounts. This diverges from the bullish upgrade signal, as insiders are reducing exposure. Congressional activity is neutral: two small buys ($1k-$15k each) by Democrats in April 2026. Institutional changes are mixed: Norges Bank initiated a $2.3B position, while Wells Fargo trimmed 42.9% in one period but added 33.1% in another. Short interest is 55.5% of volume, indicating elevated bearish positioning. The insider selling and high short interest converge against the analyst upgrade, creating a contrarian signal.

Actionable Insight

**The upgrade from Keybanc is a modest positive but lacks conviction without a price target. Given insider selling and high short interest, traders should treat this as a neutral signal and wait for stronger catalysts, such as the June 10 earnings report, before taking a directional position.**

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

9 reports for ADBE
Performance horizon
25% Hit rate 1 of 4 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +8.26%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ADBE — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 31, 2026
5d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$387.02 $343.25▼ −11.31%▼ −2.40%$251.44 (−35.03%)
May 27, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$239.29 $240.37▼ −0.45%▲ +4.48%$251.44 (−5.08%)
May 1, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$387.02 $343.25▼ −11.31%▼ −2.40%$251.44 (−35.03%)
Apr 28, 2026
5w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$242.97 $240.49▼ −1.02%▼ −6.49%$251.44 (+3.49%)
Apr 27, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 2/10
$239.29 $240.49▼ −0.50%▲ +4.45%$251.44 (−5.08%)
Apr 21, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$255.80 $254.99▼ −0.32%▼ −3.48%$251.44 (−1.70%)
Mar 25, 2026
10w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$240.66 $245.33▲ +1.94%▼ −8.72%$251.44 (+4.48%)
Feb 28, 2026
13w ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$260.79 $241.07▼ −7.56%▲ +0.38%$251.44 (−3.58%)
Feb 27, 2026
14w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$260.79 $241.07▼ −7.56%▲ +0.38%$251.44 (−3.58%)
Showing 9 of 9

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (35h 18m)

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