AIR 8-K SEC Filing Analysis

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AIR ▼ -6.92% at T+5d

NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -6.92% · α vs SPY -7.00% · entry $111.51 → $103.79

Next anchor: T+20d in 6h

Last close $114.72 (close Jun 8) · +2.88% from $111.51 entry

Entry anchored
May 11, 03:59 PM ET
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$107.47

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call -6.92% · α -7.00%

$103.79

settled 22d ago

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Executive Summary

AAR hosted an Investor Day on May 12, 2026, presenting a strategic update and new 3-year financial targets. The company reported strong historical performance with LTM Q3 FY26 adjusted sales of $3.1B and adjusted EBITDA of $376M, and set targets of 8-12% adjusted sales CAGR, 13-14%+ adjusted EBITDA margin, and ~15%+ adjusted EPS CAGR for total AAR excluding Legacy Commercial Programs. The filing also detailed a segment realignment effective Q4 FY26, combining Government Programs and Mobility into a new Government Solutions segment, and repositioning software into Repair & Engineering.

Actionable Insight

The updated FY2026 organic sales growth guidance was lowered to ~8% from prior ~16%, while total sales growth guidance was raised to ~12% from ~12% (flat). The organic slowdown is notable and may weigh on sentiment. Monitor the Q4 FY26 earnings release for actual results vs. the 'approaching 11%' organic growth target. The segment realignment and new 3-year targets provide a clearer long-term framework but are not near-term catalysts.

Key Facts

LTM Q3 FY26 adjusted sales of $3.1B and adjusted EBITDA of $376M (12.1% margin).
New 3-year targets: 8-12% adj. sales CAGR, 13-14%+ adj. EBITDA margin, ~15%+ adj. EPS CAGR (ex-Legacy Commercial Programs).
Q4 FY26 outlook: total adj. sales growth approaching 19% (prior ~17%), organic adj. sales growth approaching 11%.
FY2026 outlook: total adj. sales growth ~12% (prior ~12%), organic adj. sales growth ~8% (prior ~16%).
Segment realignment effective Q4 FY26: new Government Solutions segment, software moved to Repair, Engineering & Software, Legacy Commercial Programs becomes separate segment.
Parts Supply segment LTM Q3 FY26: $1.4B sales (+30% YoY), $201M adj. EBITDA (+42% YoY), 14.7% margin (+123 bps YoY).
Repair, Engineering & Software segment LTM Q3 FY26: $1.0B sales (+8% YoY), $127M adj. EBITDA (+1% YoY), 12.7% margin (-85 bps YoY).
Government Solutions segment LTM Q3 FY26: $514M adj. sales (+12% YoY), $56M adj. EBITDA (+56% YoY), 10.9% margin (+320 bps YoY).
Pro forma adjusted net leverage at 2.17x as of Feb 28, 2026; total available liquidity of $840M.
Awarded 10-year, $365M IDIQ contract for F-16 maintenance.

Financial Impact

Investor Day presentation with updated 3-year financial targets; no hard guidance revision that would materially change near-term consensus.

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Risk Factors

FY2026 organic sales growth guidance lowered to ~8% from ~16% (prior as of Jan 6, 2026), signaling potential headwinds.
Repair, Engineering & Software segment margin contracted 85 bps YoY to 12.7%.
Legacy Commercial Programs segment remains a drag with negative operating income.
Elevated net leverage at 2.17x (pro forma) limits balance sheet flexibility for further M&A.
Potential impact of higher jet fuel prices on commercial air travel demand noted as a headwind.

Market Snapshot

Exchange

NYSE

Sector

Aircraft & Parts

Analyst Consensus

83% bullish (12 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

Document	Accession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)	0001104659-26-058989
Document: tm2613847d1_8k.htm	0001104659-26-058989
Document: 0001104659-26-058989-index-headers.html	0001104659-26-058989
Document: 0001104659-26-058989-index.html	0001104659-26-058989
Document: 0001104659-26-058989.txt	0001104659-26-058989

5 reports for AIR

T+1T+5T+20T+60

Filters

Reports for AIR — sortable, filterable
	Type				Now
May 12, 2026 28d ago	8-K NEUTRAL ★ 5/10	$111.51 $103.79	▼ −6.92%	▼ −7.00%	$114.72 (+2.88%)
May 6, 2026 4w ago	8-K MIXED ★ 5/10	$117.82 $107.47	▼ −8.78%	▼ −10.29%	$114.72 (−2.63%)
Apr 24, 2026 6w ago	8-K NEUTRAL ★ 4/10	$110.54 $110.37	▼ −0.15%	▼ −1.06%	$114.72 (+3.78%)
Mar 26, 2026 10w ago	Insider Cluster MIXED ★ 5/10	$110.82 $109.78	▼ −0.94%	▼ −2.57%	$114.72 (+3.52%)
Mar 26, 2026 10w ago	Insider Cluster MIXED ★ 6/10	$110.82 $109.78	▼ −0.94%	▼ −2.57%	$114.72 (+3.52%)

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