AMPL Amplitude, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley upgraded AMPL from Equal-Weight to Overweight on January 15, 2026, raising its price target to $16 from $14. The stock currently trades at $6.18, well below the consensus mean target of $10.65 (72% implied upside). The firm carries a 55% accuracy rate overall (2,744 correct of 4,993 calls) but has hit 67% (4 of 6) on AMPL, placing it among the top-tier covering shops. Consensus is heavily bullish: of 17 analysts, 14 rate it Buy (5 Strong Buy, 9 Buy) and 3 Hold. However, EPS estimates have been slashed across all periods — next quarter saw 8 downward revisions in the past 30 days with zero upward revisions. Insider selling by CFO Liu Curtis totaled ~$650K over March–May 2026, a bearish divergence. Short interest is 55.3% of float, reflecting extreme bearish positioning. Institutional activity is mixed: Two Sigma added 49.6% while FMR trimmed large stakes. The upgrade is a bold bullish call from a relatively accurate firm, but it runs counter to deteriorating fundamentals and rising insider sales. The bottom line: a contrarian buy signal from a top firm on AMPL, but earnings risk and insider selling warrant caution.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Analyst consensus on AMPL is heavily bullish: 14 of 17 analysts (82%) rate the stock a Buy (5 Strong Buy, 9 Buy), while 3 rate it a Hold. There are zero Sell ratings. This is a very lopsided consensus that leans sharply positive, making any contrarian upgrade less surprising in direction.

The mean price target is $10.65, median $10.00, high $18.00, and low $7.00. At $6.18, AMPL trades at a 42% discount to the mean target (72% upside). Morgan Stanley’s new $16 target sits well above the mean — at the 88th percentile of the analyst range — and implies 159% upside. The prior target was $14, so the increment is moderate (~14%).

Recent Analyst Activity

In the past 30 days, there has been 1 downgrade (BofA to Neutral on May 7) and 0 upgrades aside from this call. EPS revision momentum is sharply negative: the next quarter saw 8 downward revisions and 0 upward in the past 30 days, with the average EPS estimate falling from $0.036 to $0.028. Full-year 2026 estimates dropped from $0.110 to $0.050 over the same period. All periods show net downward revisions.

Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 8 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Morgan Stanley has a 55% overall accuracy rate on 4,993 calls, with an average return of 4.3%. On AMPL specifically, Morgan Stanley is 4 for 6 (67% accuracy) with an average return of 0.4% — placing it as a top-tier performer among covering firms. The best firm on AMPL is Scotiabank (100% on 2 calls, +33.4% avg return); the worst is BofA Securities (0% on 2 calls, -12.3% avg return). Morgan Stanley’s 67% is well above the average accuracy of this group.

Earnings Estimates

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades show CFO Liu Curtis sold shares worth ~$650K in three transactions between March and May 2026 — all after the upgrade date. These are routine-sized sells but cluster in a short window, adding a bearish element. No congressional trades. Institutional activity is mixed: Two Sigma added 49.6% ($12.1M) while FMR (Fidelity) trimmed two positions totaling 48-74%. Renaissance Technologies also trimmed over 53%. Short interest is extremely high at 55.3% of float, suggesting heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze on positive catalysts. The upgrade from a top-tier firm contrasts with the insider selling and estimate cuts, creating a divergence.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status