AVO Mission Produce, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Mission Produce reported a severe Q2 fiscal 2026 miss: GAAP EPS of -$0.10 (vs consensus of +$0.05) and revenue of $290.9M (vs consensus of $256.3M). Revenue declined 24% YoY due to a 36% drop in avocado pricing. Adjusted EBITDA collapsed 63% to $7.1M. The company completed the acquisition of Calavo on May 28 and authorized a $100M share repurchase program. The core business is under severe margin pressure, and the guidance for Q3 consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $28-$32M provides only a partial recovery narrative, tempered by continued margin compression into early Q3.
Key Financial Metrics
Actionable Insight
The combination of a severe earnings miss, a dilutive all-stock acquisition just closed, and heavy debt load ($350M term loans) creates a bearish setup. Traders should brace for downside pressure at the open. Key catalysts to watch: the Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance ($28-$32M) implies a sharp sequential recovery from Q2 — if management fails to deliver on this, the stock will break down further. Monitor integration execution and synergy realization, as the $25M+ synergy target is crucial to offsetting debt service. The $100M buyback provides a floor but is discretionary.
Key Facts
- GAAP EPS: -$0.10 vs consensus +$0.05 (massive miss, swing from +$0.04 YoY)
- Revenue: $290.9M, down 24% YoY from $380.3M, driven by a 36% decline in per-unit avocado pricing.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $7.1M, down 63% from $19.1M YoY due to margin compression from historically low prices and a mismatch in fruit-size supply.
- Calavo acquisition completed on May 28 for ~$266M cash + 17.5M shares, adding $350M in term-loan debt and a combined 88.3M shares outstanding.
- Q3 guidance: consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $28-$32M, implying a H2 total of $84-$88M, with synergies not expected until Q4.
- $100M share repurchase authorized (replaces $11.2M remaining from prior program) — no shares repurchased through June 8.
Financial Impact
Revenue miss of ~$34.6M vs consensus, GAAP EPS miss of -$0.15 vs consensus, adjusted EBITDA down 63% YoY.
Risk Factors
- Prolonged avocado price weakness below Q3 guidance assumptions.
- Integration disruption or failure to achieve $25M+ Calavo synergies.
- Dilution from 17.5M new shares and $350M debt servicing burden.
- Further margin compression if supply/demand mismatch persists.
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001802974-26-000031 |
| Document: avo-20260608.htm | 0001802974-26-000031 |
| Document: 0001802974-26-000031-index-headers.html | 0001802974-26-000031 |
| Document: 0001802974-26-000031-index.html | 0001802974-26-000031 |
| Document: 0001802974-26-000031.txt | 0001802974-26-000031 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001802974-26-000031 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
|
8-K
| $10.00 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $10.11 (−1.10%) |
|
May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
3
| $10.89 $10.22 | ▼ −6.15% | ▼ −3.40% | $10.11 (−7.16%) |
|
May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
8-K
| $11.14 $10.22 | ▼ −8.26% | ▼ −5.73% | $10.11 (−9.25%) |
|
May 28, 2026
12d ago
|
Press Release
| $11.14 $11.08 | ▼ −0.54% | ▼ −0.25% | $10.11 (−9.25%) |
|
May 22, 2026
18d ago
|
8-K
| $11.65 $10.78 | ▼ −7.47% | ▼ −8.68% | $10.11 (−13.22%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
5w ago
|
425
| $13.75 $13.61 | ▼ −1.02% | ▼ −4.13% | $10.11 (−26.47%) |
|
Apr 20, 2026
7w ago
|
425
| $13.42 $14.26 | ▲ +6.26% | ▲ +5.35% | $10.11 (−24.66%) |
|
Apr 20, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $13.42 $14.26 | ▲ +6.26% | ▲ +5.35% | $10.11 (−24.66%) |
|
Mar 23, 2026
11w ago
|
EFFECT
| $12.66 $13.70 | ▲ +8.21% | ▲ +11.78% | $10.11 (−20.14%) |
|
Feb 24, 2026
15w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $14.44 $14.30 | ▼ −0.97% | ▲ +0.13% | $10.11 (−29.99%) |
US Market Status
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