AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Baird upgraded American Express (AXP) to Neutral from Underperform on March 14, 2025, maintaining a $265 price target that implies 18% downside from the current $321.90. This is a contrarian call: Baird's PT is the second-lowest on the Street (only BTIG's $285 is lower), while the consensus mean is $362 (+12% upside). Baird's accuracy on AXP is 54% (1,388 correct out of 2,555 calls), slightly below the top-tier firms like TD Cowen and Goldman Sachs (both 100% on 2 calls). The broader consensus is mixed: 16 Buy, 18 Hold, 1 Sell. EPS revisions for the current quarter (0q) have been negative — 12 downgrades vs 5 upgrades in the last 30 days — and the next earnings report is due July 16, 2026. Insider selling is heavy, with five executives selling over $8.3M in recent months, including a $4.6M sale by Seeger Laureen. Short interest is elevated at 63.8% of off-exchange volume. The upgrade is a modest positive signal from a mid-accuracy firm, but the bearish PT and insider selling suggest caution.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is mixed: 5 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 18 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell (35 analysts total). The majority (51%) are Hold-rated, with only 46% Buy-rated. Baird's Neutral aligns with the consensus center, but its $265 PT is far below the $362 mean, making it one of the most bearish on the Street.

Mean PT $362.02, median $352.50, high $450, low $285. Current price $321.90 implies +12.5% upside to the mean. Baird's $265 PT is 27% below the mean and 7% below the low of $285. Only BTIG's $285 is lower. Baird's view is significantly below consensus.

Recent Analyst Activity

No upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days from the 9 firms that acted on March 14. EPS revisions for the current quarter (0q) show 12 downgrades vs 5 upgrades in the last 30 days, a net negative trend. For the full year (0y), revisions are more balanced: 12 upgrades vs 6 downgrades. Near-term estimates are being cut, but longer-term outlook is stable.

Firm Track Record — Baird

Baird accuracy: 54% on 2555 calls | avg return: 4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Baird has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,555 calls with an average return of 4%. This is below top-tier firms like TD Cowen (100% on 2 calls, avg return 11.5%) and Goldman Sachs (100% on 2 calls, avg return 11.9%). Among firms covering AXP, the best performers are TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank (all 100% accuracy). The worst are UBS (50% on 2 calls) and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (50% on 6 calls). Baird's accuracy is middling.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 16, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is heavy: five executives sold over $8.3M in the last 60 days, including a $4.6M sale by Seeger Laureen and a $2.8M sale by Grosfield Howard. No insider buys. Congressional activity is mixed: one Democrat buy (Moskowitz, $1k-$15k) and one Republican buy (Capito, $1k-$15k), but also one Democrat sell (Larsen, $1k-$15k). Institutional changes show Norges Bank exiting a $2.46B position (new then exit), while Wells Fargo added 31.4% and doubled another position. Short interest is elevated at 63.8% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish sentiment. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and short interest, creating a mixed signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status