BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/

MIXED Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-BAC-morganst-20250407
17 firms acted on BAC: Jefferies, CICC, Wolfe Research, HSBC, Baird, Morgan Stanley, Baird, UBS, Truist Securities, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Phillip Securities, Deutsche Bank, CFRA, Piper Sandler, Seaport Global, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
BAC ▲ +37.60% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +37.60% · α vs SPY +13.49% · entry $35.56 → $48.93
Currently $53.83 · +51.39% from $35.56 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 7, 11:59 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.44%
call -1.44% · α -0.02%
$35.05
settled 14mo ago
T+5d
+3.09%
call +3.09% · α -3.78%
$36.66
settled 14mo ago
T+20d
+14.74%
call +14.74% · α +3.89%
$40.80
settled 13mo ago
T+60d
+37.60%
call +37.60% · α +13.49%
$48.93
settled 11mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley upgraded Bank of America (BAC) to Overweight from Equal-Weight while cutting its price target to $47 from $56 — now the lowest among 23 analysts. The call is part of a 17-firm analyst cluster on BAC on April 7, 2025. Despite the positive rating shift, the new PT implies 12% downside from the current $53.46, versus the consensus mean of $62.93 (+17.7% upside). Morgan Stanley has a 67% accuracy rate on 15 prior BAC calls (top tier among covering firms). The broader consensus is heavily bullish: 84% Buy (26 of 31 analysts), 0% Sell. Insider selling has been heavy — over $20M in sales by five top executives in March. Institutional signals are mixed: Norges Bank opened a $4.77B position, but Dodge & Cox, Renaissance Technologies, and Duquesne Family Office exited or nearly exited. Short interest sits at 56.1% of float, signaling elevated bearish bets. This rare upgrade-with-PT-cut from a high-accuracy firm creates a sharp divergence vs consensus. EPS estimates are trending higher (14 upward revisions for FY2025), but the stock faces headwinds from insider selling and high short interest. Bottom line: the upgrade carries weight due to Morgan Stanley's track record, but the aggressive PT cut demands caution.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
26 (84%)
Hold
5
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
23
Mean PT
$62.93
Median PT
$62.00
High PT
$71.00
Low PT
$57.50
Current Price
$53.46
Implied Upside
+17.7%

Of 31 analysts covering BAC, 6 rate it Strong Buy, 20 Buy, and 5 Hold. That is 84% Buy (26 of 31) and 16% Hold. No Sell ratings. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, and Morgan Stanley's upgrade aligns with that direction, though its price target is a stark outlier.

Consensus price targets: mean $62.93, median $62.00, high $71.00, low $57.50. BAC trades at $53.46, implying 17.7% upside to the mean. Morgan Stanley's PT of $47.00 sits 25% below the mean and 18% below the next-lowest target of $57.50, implying 12.1% downside. This is the most bearish target among all analysts.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-16 Piper Sandler maintain Neutral $59.00
2026-04-16 Oppenheimer maintain Outperform $61.00
2026-04-16 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $61.00
2026-04-16 Truist Securities maintain Buy $61.00
2026-04-16 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $59.00
2026-04-16 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintain Outperform $64.00
2026-04-07 JP Morgan maintain Overweight $57.50
2026-04-06 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $55.00
2026-03-27 Oppenheimer maintain Outperform $58.00
2026-03-26 Jefferies initiate Buy $60.00

No analyst upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. However, EPS estimate revisions are positive: current quarter (Q2 2025) estimates up 0.7% over 30 days, full-year 2025 up 2.6%, and next fiscal year up 1.3%. 14 upward revisions for the current fiscal year vs 0 down. Estimates are trending higher, supporting the bullish consensus.

Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Citigroup 100% 5/5 7.4% top tier
Oppenheimer 79% 11/14 6.2% top tier
Wells Fargo 75% 3/4 3.5% top tier
RBC Capital 75% 3/4 11.7% top tier
Morgan Stanley 67% 10/15 2.4% top tier
JP Morgan 67% 2/3 9.7% top tier
Barclays 60% 3/5 2.6% above average
Truist Securities 57% 4/7 4.1% above average
Evercore ISI Group 56% 5/9 2.3% above average
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 50% 4/8 3.8% below average

On BAC specifically, Morgan Stanley has a 67% accuracy rate (10 correct of 15 calls), ranking as top tier among covering firms. The best BAC analysts by accuracy are Citigroup (100% on 5 calls) and Oppenheimer (79% on 14 calls). The weakest is Piper Sandler (29% on 7 calls, average return -0.3%). Morgan Stanley's overall firm-wide accuracy is 55% on 4,993 calls with an average return of 4.3%.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $1.09 $1.06 — $1.12 $30.0B ↑1 ↓0
+1q $1.13 $1.06 — $1.17 $30.3B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $5.03 $4.79 — $5.25 $126.8B ↑2 ↓0
0y $4.47 $4.38 — $4.65 $121.0B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
DODGE & COX — near_exit (-86.9%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Short Interest
Short: 12,264,969 | Exempt: 59,513 | TRF Vol: 21,879,151 | Short Ratio: 56.1% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trading is a red flag: five top executives sold over $20M worth of BAC stock in March, including Dean Athanasia ($6.9M) and James DeMare ($4.2M). Institutional activity is split: Norges Bank opened a massive $4.77B new position, but several prominent funds (Dodge & Cox -86.9%, Two Sigma -91.8%, Renaissance, Duquesne) exited or nearly exited. Short interest is elevated at 56.1% of float — this is a unusually high bearish bet. The analyst upgrade from a high-accuracy firm diverges from insider selling and short interest, creating a mixed setup.

Actionable Insight

The upgrade from a top-tier firm signals potential value, but the aggressive PT cut, insider selling, and high short interest counsel caution. Wait for earnings on July 14 for confirmation; a short squeeze is possible if fundamentals deliver, but the risk of further downside remains elevated given the PT disparity.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

11 reports for BAC
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +5.16%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for BAC — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 31, 2026
5d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$35.56 $36.66▲ +3.09%▼ −3.78%$53.83 (+51.39%)
May 15, 2026
21d ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$49.76 $51.80▲ +4.10%▲ +3.14%$53.83 (+8.19%)
May 14, 2026
22d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$49.90 $51.46▲ +3.12%▲ +3.84%$53.83 (+7.88%)
May 1, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 4/10
$35.56 $36.66▲ +3.09%▼ −3.78%$53.83 (+51.39%)
Apr 13, 2026
7w ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$53.33 $53.94▲ +1.14%▼ −2.15%$53.83 (+0.94%)
Mar 30, 2026
9w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$47.22 $50.29▲ +6.50%▲ +2.20%$53.83 (+14.01%)
Mar 30, 2026
9w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$47.22 $50.29▲ +6.50%▲ +2.20%$53.83 (+14.01%)
Mar 23, 2026
10w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$47.51 $47.22▼ −0.61%▲ +2.95%$53.83 (+13.31%)
Mar 5, 2026
13w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$49.78 $47.11▼ −5.37%▼ −3.13%$53.83 (+8.14%)
Mar 3, 2026
13w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$49.97 $48.56▼ −2.82%▼ −2.35%$53.83 (+7.73%)
Showing 10 of 11

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (38h 7m)

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