BLD TopBuild Corp
Price Chart
Executive Summary
DA Davidson double downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral on May 6, 2026, cutting its price target from $465 to $437, implying just 1.5% upside from the current $430.56. The firm has a below-average 40% accuracy rate on 5 calls, with an average return of 7.7%. Consensus remains mixed: 10 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell among 17 analysts, with a mean target of $478.91 (11.2% upside). The downgrade follows a string of recent downgrades — JP Morgan (Apr 21) and Seaport Global (Apr 7) also moved to Neutral. EPS revisions are trending lower: 6 downward revisions vs 1 upward in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year. Institutional buying is strong — Morgan Stanley added 55.5% and UBS added 51.9% — diverging from the analyst downgrade signal. Bottom line: a low-accuracy firm's contrarian downgrade carries less weight, but the broader trend of downgrades and falling estimates warrants caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is mixed: 3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell among 17 analysts. The majority (10 of 17) are still bullish, but the 7 Hold votes reflect growing caution. The consensus is leaning bullish but with a notable neutral contingent.
Current price: $430.56. Mean target: $478.91 (11.2% upside). Median target: $496 (15.2% upside). High target: $520 (20.8% upside). Low target: $410 (4.8% downside). DA Davidson's $437 target is below the mean and median, near the low end of the range, signaling a bearish outlier view.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | DA Davidson | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Benchmark | maintain | Buy | $500.00 |
In the last 30 days: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (DA Davidson, JP Morgan, Seaport Global). EPS revisions are negative: 6 downward revisions vs 1 upward for the current fiscal year, and 7 downward vs 0 upward for next year. Estimates are being revised lower across all periods.
Firm Track Record — DA Davidson
DA Davidson accuracy: 53% on 1587 calls | avg return: 3.2%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
DA Davidson has a 40% accuracy rate on 5 calls, below the average of firms covering this stock. The best performing firms are Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls), Loop Capital (67% on 3 calls), and Stephens & Co. (67% on 3 calls). The worst is Jefferies (0% on 3 calls, avg return -13.5%). DA Davidson's track record is below average, so this downgrade carries less conviction.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $4.76 | $4.35 — $5.03 | $1.5B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $3.64 | $3.50 — $3.88 | $1.4B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.20 | $17.39 — $18.94 | $6.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $20.95 | $18.69 — $22.98 | $6.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: none reported. Congressional trades: none. Institutional changes show strong buying: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% ($193M), UBS added 51.9% ($96.5M), and Norges Bank initiated a new $105M position. However, Norges Bank also exited a prior position. This institutional buying diverges from the analyst downgrade signal, suggesting smart money is accumulating while analysts turn cautious.
Actionable Insight
The downgrade trend and falling EPS estimates are bearish, but the low accuracy of DA Davidson and strong institutional buying create a mixed signal. Traders should watch for further downgrades or a break below $410 (low target) to confirm downside.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 5, 2026
today
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
today
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
1d ago
|
425
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
Jun 4, 2026
1d ago
|
8-K
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 29, 2026
7d ago
|
DEFM14A
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 21, 2026
15d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $469.92 $435.15 | ▼ −7.40% | ▼ −8.48% | $401.82 (−14.49%) |
|
May 16, 2026
20d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $404.33 $443.31 | ▲ +9.64% | ▲ +7.72% | $401.82 (−0.62%) |
|
May 11, 2026
25d ago
|
425
| $424.63 $406.29 | ▼ −4.32% | ▼ −4.23% | $401.82 (−5.37%) |
|
May 6, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $416.79 | ▲ +5.04% | ▲ +6.17% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
May 6, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $416.79 | ▲ +5.04% | ▲ +6.17% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
US Market Status
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