BLD TopBuild Corp

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Loop Capital double downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold on May 6, 2026, with a $485 price target (12.6% upside from $430.56). This follows DA Davidson's downgrade to Neutral with a $437 target on the same day, and a total of 4 downgrades in the past 30 days. Loop Capital has a 54% accuracy on 645 calls overall and 67% on this stock (2/3), ranking among top-tier firms covering the name. Consensus remains skewed bullish with 10 Buy ratings (3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy) vs 7 Hold, 0 Sell; but the bearish tilt is intensifying. The mean target of $478.91 implies 11.2% upside while Loop's $485 target sits slightly above the mean but below the $496 median. Earnings estimates are being revised lower: 6 downward revisions for the current fiscal year vs 1 upward in the last 30 days, and 7 down for next year. Institutional buyers such as Morgan Stanley (+55.5%) and UBS (+51.9%) provide a bullish counterweight, but no insider activity exists to confirm either side. The convergence of multiple downgrades and falling estimates makes this a clear bearish signal despite the buy-heavy consensus. Bottom line: the downgrade cluster and estimate trend overwhelm the institutional buying, warranting a cautious stance.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Strong Buy, 7 Buy, and 7 Hold (0 Sell). That's a 58.8% Buy ratio, but the number of Hold ratings has grown with recent downgrades. The consensus direction is still bullish, but the margin is thinning.

Current price: $430.56. Mean target: $478.91 (11.2% upside). Median: $496 (15.2% upside). High: $520 (20.8% upside). Low: $410 (4.8% downside). Loop Capital's $485 target is 1.3% above the mean and 2.2% below the median, placing it slightly above the consensus average.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 4 downgrades (Loop Capital, DA Davidson twice, JP Morgan, Seaport Global). EPS revisions are trending negative: for the current fiscal year, 6 downward revisions in 30 days vs 1 upward; for next year, 7 down vs 0 up. Estimates for the next quarter have dropped from $4.82 to $4.76 in 30 days.

Firm Track Record — Loop Capital

Loop Capital accuracy: 54% on 645 calls | avg return: 4.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Loop Capital has scored correctly on 349 of 645 rated stocks (54.1%), with an average return of 4.4%. Among firms covering this stock, Loop's 67% accuracy (2/3) is top-tier, alongside Stephens & Co. (67%) and Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls). The worst performer is Jefferies (0% on 3 calls, avg return -13.5%). Loop's overall track record is solid, though the sample on this ticker is small.

Earnings Estimates

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: none reported. Congressional trades: none. Institutional activity: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% to its position (~$193M value), UBS added 51.9% (~$96.5M), and Norges Bank both initiated and exited stakes (likely separate funds). No short interest data available. The institutional buying is a bullish divergence against the analyst downgrades, but without insider buying to reinforce, the bearish analyst action carries more weight given the estimate revisions.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status