BLD TopBuild Corp
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Seaport Global upgraded TopBuild Corp (BLD) from Neutral to Buy on August 6, 2025, setting a $450 price target (+8% upside). This is a contrarian call: BLD has seen 3 downgrades in the past 30 days from Loop Capital, DA Davidson, and JP Morgan, and 7 firms acted on the stock in a cluster. Seaport Global's accuracy on BLD is 100% (2/2 calls), making this a high-conviction signal from a top-tier firm. Consensus is split: 10 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, with a mean target of $475.30 (+14% upside). Seaport's $450 target is below the mean and median ($490.50), reflecting a more conservative view. EPS revisions are mixed: +1y estimates have 3 up and 4 down in 30 days, with the current EPS ($20.98) slightly below 30 days ago ($21.24). Institutional activity is bullish: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% and 33.8% to its positions, and UBS added 51.9%, while Norges Bank exited. No insider trades or congressional trades are reported. The bottom line: Seaport's upgrade is a strong bullish signal from a firm with a perfect track record on BLD, but the broader analyst community is turning cautious — traders should watch for confirmation from earnings or further upgrades.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 10 Buy (3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy), 7 Hold, 0 Sell — a net bullish tilt but with significant hold-side skepticism. 17 analysts cover BLD. The direction is mixed: recent downgrades from Loop Capital, DA Davidson, and JP Morgan contrast with Seaport's upgrade.
Current price: $416.79. Mean target: $475.30 (+14% upside). Median: $490.50. High: $520. Low: $433. Seaport's $450 target is below the mean and median, implying a more conservative upside of +8% vs the consensus +14%. The target range is wide ($433–$520), indicating disagreement among analysts.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Loop Capital | downgrade | Hold | $485.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | DA Davidson | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 3 downgrades (Loop Capital, DA Davidson, JP Morgan). EPS revisions are mixed: +1y estimates have 3 up and 4 down in 30 days; current quarter (0q) has 3 up and 5 down. The 30-day EPS trend is slightly negative (current $20.98 vs $21.24 30 days ago). Estimates are being revised lower overall.
Firm Track Record — Seaport Global
Seaport Global accuracy: 51% on 239 calls | avg return: 1.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
Seaport Global has a 100% accuracy on BLD (2/2 calls) with an average return of -7% — the negative return suggests their calls were timed poorly despite correct direction. Among firms covering BLD, Loop Capital (67% on 3 calls, +16.7% avg return) and Stephens & Co. (67% on 3 calls, +18.8% avg return) are top performers. Jefferies has the worst record (0% on 3 calls, -13.5% avg return). Seaport's track record is top-tier by accuracy but below average by return.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $20.98 | $18.69 — $23.51 | $6.3B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0q | $4.80 | $4.65 — $5.06 | $1.5B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $5.14 | $4.58 — $5.48 | $1.6B | ↑5 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.20 | $17.07 — $19.34 | $6.1B | ↑3 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional trades reported. Institutional activity is bullish: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% and 33.8% to positions, UBS added 51.9%, and Norges Bank exited. No short interest data available. The institutional buying converges with Seaport's upgrade, while the analyst downgrades diverge — creating a mixed cross-platform signal.
Actionable Insight
Seaport's upgrade is a high-conviction contrarian call from a firm with a perfect BLD track record, but the broader analyst community is turning cautious. Traders should treat this as a tactical buy signal, but wait for earnings confirmation or further upgrades before adding full position size.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 5, 2026
today
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
today
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
1d ago
|
425
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
Jun 4, 2026
1d ago
|
8-K
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 29, 2026
7d ago
|
DEFM14A
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
May 21, 2026
15d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $469.92 $435.15 | ▼ −7.40% | ▼ −8.48% | $401.82 (−14.49%) |
|
May 16, 2026
20d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $404.33 $443.31 | ▲ +9.64% | ▲ +7.72% | $401.82 (−0.62%) |
|
May 11, 2026
25d ago
|
425
| $424.63 $406.29 | ▼ −4.32% | ▼ −4.23% | $401.82 (−5.37%) |
|
May 6, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $416.79 | ▲ +5.04% | ▲ +6.17% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
|
May 6, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $416.79 | ▲ +5.04% | ▲ +6.17% | $401.82 (+8.45%) |
US Market Status
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