BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Jefferies upgraded Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) from Hold to Buy on April 6, maintaining a $195 price target. The move is part of a 10-firm cluster of analyst actions, with the $195 PT the most conservative among 14 analysts. Jefferies carries a 53% accuracy rate on 2,282 calls with a 3.9% average return, placing it near the industry median. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 21 of 23 analysts rate BOOT Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $230.36, implying 59% upside from the current $145.24. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have seen 14 upward revisions in 30 days versus 0 downward, a positive fundamental signal. However, insider activity is mixed: one insider sold ~$198K in February, while a congressional representative bought a small stake in March. Institutional flows show Morgan Stanley and UBS adding positions, but FMR trimmed 44% and two funds fully exited. Short interest is elevated at 70.5% of volume, reflecting significant bearish positioning. The bottom line: Jefferies' upgrade aligns with the bullish consensus but at the lowest price target, signaling a cautious yet positive stance from a mid-tier firm.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 23 analysts covering BOOT, 10 rate Strong Buy, 11 rate Buy, and 2 rate Hold. Zero Sell ratings. Consensus is heavily skewed bullish, with 91% of analysts recommending Buy or Strong Buy.
Current price: $145.24. Mean target: $230.36. Median: $227.50. High: $282. Low: $195 (Jefferies). Implied upside to mean: +59%. Jefferies' $195 PT sits 15% below the mean, reflecting a more cautious valuation than the Street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $272.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $206.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $226.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $225.00 |
| 2026-05-15 | BTIG | reiterate | Buy | $235.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $270.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Jefferies | upgrade | Buy | $195.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $232.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $230.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $267.00 |
In the past 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades, though multiple firms reiterated Buy ratings on May 15. EPS revisions for the current fiscal year (0y) are positive: 14 upward revisions in 30 days, 0 downward. For the current quarter (0q), revisions are balanced: 6 up, 5 down. Overall, estimates are trending higher for the full year.
Firm Track Record — Jefferies
Jefferies accuracy: 53% on 2282 calls | avg return: 3.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 100% | 4/4 | 31.6% | top tier |
| Baird | 88% | 7/8 | 24.2% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 75% | 3/4 | 11% | top tier |
| Craig-Hallum | 75% | 3/4 | 18.2% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 70% | 7/10 | 11.9% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 4/6 | 14.3% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 67% | 2/3 | 6.5% | top tier |
| BTIG | 63% | 5/8 | 6.4% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 62% | 8/13 | 2.2% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 50% | 1/2 | -17.4% | below average |
Jefferies has a 53% accuracy rate on 2,282 calls with an average return of 3.9%, placing it near the industry median. Top-performing firms on BOOT include Citigroup (100% on 4 calls, +31.6% avg return), Baird (88% on 8, +24.2%), and KeyBanc (75% on 4, +11.0%). At the low end, UBS has 38% accuracy on 8 calls with a -2.1% avg return.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $8.51 | $8.31 — $8.80 | $2.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.93 | $1.83 — $2.03 | $571.9M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $7.34 | $7.29 — $7.41 | $2.2B | ↑6 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.43 | $1.39 — $1.47 | $531.4M | ↑6 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: One sell by Morris Brenda I on Feb 25 for ~$198K. Congressional activity: Representative Gilbert Cisneros bought $1K–$15K on Mar 3. Institutional flows: Morgan Stanley added 32%, UBS added 50.8%, but FMR trimmed 44%, and Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies fully exited. Short interest is 70.5% of volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning. Signals are mixed: bullish from analysts and EPS revisions but cautious from insider selling and institutional exits.
Actionable Insight
Jefferies' upgrade adds to the overwhelmingly bullish analyst consensus, but the $195 PT is the lowest on the Street. With rising EPS estimates and significant short interest, the setup is constructive but not without risk. Traders should treat this as a validation of the bullish narrative rather than a game-changing call.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 16, 2026
20d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $149.03 $167.66 | ▲ +12.50% | ▲ +3.52% | $167.60 (+12.46%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $154.94 $145.24 | ▼ −6.26% | ▼ −12.08% | $167.60 (+8.17%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access