CAT CATERPILLAR INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley downgraded Caterpillar (CAT) from Equal-Weight to Underweight on October 14, 2024, slashing its price target from $349 to $332. This is a deeply contrarian call against a consensus that is 69% Buy/Strong Buy (18 of 34 analysts) with a mean target of $772, implying 13% downside from the current price of $890. Morgan Stanley's 55% accuracy on 4,993 calls is slightly above average, but its average return of 4.3% is below the peer average of 5.5%. The downgrade comes amid zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions have been trending up: +1.4% for the current quarter and +1.0% for the next fiscal year. Insider selling has been heavy — five executives sold over $33 million in February and March 2026 — while institutional flows are mixed: FMR added 29.6% and 74.1% in separate funds, but TWO SIGMA nearly exited (-93.3%) and NORGES BANK fully exited. Short interest is elevated at 61.4% of off-exchange volume, signaling bearish positioning. The bottom line: Morgan Stanley's bearish call is a high-conviction contrarian bet against a bullish consensus, but the firm's below-average return and the upward EPS revision trend weaken the signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 14 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — total 34 analysts. 69% are bullish (Buy/Strong Buy), 41% are neutral (Hold), and 6% are bearish (Sell). The consensus is heavily skewed to the buy side, making Morgan Stanley's downgrade a clear outlier.
Current price: $890.11. Mean target: $772.18 (13% downside). Median: $781.47. High: $960 (8% upside). Low: $430 (52% downside). Morgan Stanley's $332 target is 57% below the mean and 63% below the current price — the most bearish on the street by a wide margin.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-14 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $500.00 |
| 2024-10-14 | Morgan Stanley | downgrade | Underweight | $332.00 |
| 2024-10-09 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $445.00 |
| 2024-10-09 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $456.00 |
| 2024-09-30 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $434.00 |
| 2024-08-19 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $321.00 |
| 2024-08-07 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $376.00 |
| 2024-08-07 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $335.00 |
| 2024-08-07 | UBS | maintain | Sell | $285.00 |
| 2024-08-07 | Truist Securities | reiterate | Buy | $399.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: 9 up vs 3 down for the current quarter, 5 up vs 4 down for next quarter, and 10 up vs 3 down for next fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher, which contradicts Morgan Stanley's bearish stance.
Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 4 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | 50% | 1/2 | 9.4% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | 5.8% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 1/2 | -2.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 1/2 | 8.6% | below average |
Morgan Stanley has a 55% accuracy rate on 4,993 calls, slightly above the average of 50% for firms covering CAT. However, its average return of 4.3% is below the peer average of 5.5%. Among firms covering CAT, B of A Securities (50% on 2 calls) and Citigroup (50% on 2 calls) have lower accuracy, while no firm has a track record above 55%.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $5.72 | $5.38 — $6.14 | $18.2B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1y | $27.98 | $24.73 — $32.25 | $80.4B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0y | $23.00 | $23.00 — $23.00 | $73.8B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0q | $4.64 | $4.18 — $5.20 | $16.4B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy: five executives sold over $33 million in February and March 2026, including $16.3M by Bob De Lange. Congressional activity: one sell by Rep. Jared Moskowitz ($1K-$15K). Institutional flows are mixed: FMR added 29.6% and 74.1% in two funds, but TWO SIGMA nearly exited (-93.3%) and NORGES BANK fully exited. Short interest is 61.4% of off-exchange volume, indicating elevated bearish positioning. The insider selling and short interest converge with Morgan Stanley's bearish call, but the upward EPS revisions and FMR's buying diverge.
Actionable Insight
Morgan Stanley's downgrade is a high-conviction contrarian call, but the upward EPS revision trend and mixed institutional flows suggest caution. Traders should watch for further insider selling and short interest increases to confirm the bearish thesis.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 1, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $393.99 $390.48 | ▲ +0.89% | ▲ +0.79% | $915.64 (−132.40%) |
|
May 15, 2026
25d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $863.61 $907.78 | ▲ +5.11% | ▲ +3.50% | $915.64 (+6.03%) |
|
May 6, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $926.61 $901.93 | ▼ −2.66% | ▼ −3.83% | $915.64 (−1.18%) |
|
May 6, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $926.61 $901.93 | ▼ −2.66% | ▼ −3.83% | $915.64 (−1.18%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $874.80 $925.99 | ▲ +5.85% | ▲ +2.92% | $915.64 (+4.67%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $874.80 $925.99 | ▲ +5.85% | ▲ +2.92% | $915.64 (+4.67%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $874.80 $925.99 | ▲ +5.85% | ▲ +2.92% | $915.64 (+4.67%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $874.80 $925.99 | ▲ +5.85% | ▲ +2.92% | $915.64 (+4.67%) |
|
May 4, 2026
5w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $874.80 $925.99 | ▲ +5.85% | ▲ +2.92% | $915.64 (+4.67%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $393.99 $390.48 | ▲ +0.89% | ▲ +0.79% | $915.64 (−132.40%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access