CME CME GROUP INC.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

TD Cowen upgraded CME Group Inc. to Buy from Hold, raising its price target to $305 from $290, implying 11.5% upside from the current $273.54. The upgrade is part of a broader cluster of 13 firms acting on CME, though the consensus remains mixed with 10 Buy-equivalent ratings, 8 Holds, and 3 Sells. The mean price target is $306.47, with a high of $353 and a low of $230. TD Cowen has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,801 calls with an average return of 3.4%, placing it near the middle of the pack. Over the past 30 days, no upgrades or downgrades were recorded, but EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 3 upward revisions versus 11 downward, indicating some negative estimate pressure. Insider activity is mixed: CEO Terrence Duffy sold $7.75M worth of shares on May 15, while director William Shepard bought $418K on March 26. Institutional flows show a massive new $1.52B position from Norges Bank, offset by near-exits from Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma. The short interest ratio is elevated at 55.3%, suggesting bearish positioning. The bottom line: TD Cowen's upgrade adds a bullish catalyst to a stock with mixed signals, but the high short interest and insider selling warrant caution.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

The consensus on CME is mixed: 2 Strong Buy, 8 Buy, 8 Hold, 3 Sell, 0 Strong Sell, from 21 analysts. This gives a 48% Buy-equivalent ratio, 38% Hold, and 14% Sell, indicating no clear directional tilt.

Current price is $273.54. Mean target is $306.47, median $316, high $353, low $230. Implied upside to mean is 12.0%. TD Cowen's $305 target is slightly below the mean and median, placing it in the middle of the consensus range.

Recent Analyst Activity

Over the past 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions for the current fiscal year show 3 upward revisions and 11 downward in the last 30 days, with the average EPS estimate rising slightly from $12.2376 to $12.26793. For the current quarter, there were 0 upward and 11 downward revisions, indicating near-term estimate pressure.

Firm Track Record — TD Cowen

TD Cowen accuracy: 56% on 1801 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 12 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

TD Cowen has a 56% accuracy rate on 1,801 scored calls with an average return of 3.4%, ranking as average among firms covering CME. Top-tier firms include UBS (100% on 4 calls, avg return 3.1%), RBC Capital (100% on 6 calls, avg return 7.8%), and Piper Sandler (89% on 9 calls, avg return 8.5%). Bottom-tier firms include JP Morgan (0% on 6 calls, avg return 5.9%) and B of A Securities (0% on 4 calls, avg return 5.1%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades show a mix: CEO Terrence Duffy sold $7.75M on May 15, director Jonathan Marcus sold ~$2.13M on March 17, and director Hilda Piell sold $1.75M on May 18. Director William Shepard bought $418K on March 26. Institutional activity is divergent: Norges Bank initiated a massive $1.52B position, while Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma nearly exited. Short interest ratio is 55.3%, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The insider selling and high short interest diverge from the bullish analyst signal, creating a mixed picture.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status