COIN Coinbase Global, Inc.

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Executive Summary

B of A Securities upgraded Coinbase (COIN) from Neutral to Buy on January 8, maintaining its $340 price target. The call came amid a cluster of 26 analyst actions on the stock, but recent price action has pushed COIN 81% below the target. B of A’s COIN-specific accuracy is 54% (6/11 calls correct) with a modest 1.5% average return – above average among covering firms but not top-tier. Consensus remains bullish: 28 of 43 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy (65%), with a mean target of $241.80 and median of $234. However, near-term signals are bearish: EPS estimates have been revised down across all periods in the last 30 days, and the only rating change in that window was a Barclays downgrade to Underweight (PT $140). Insiders sold heavily, including $6M by HAAS ALESIA J in March-April, and short interest stands at 56.3% of TRF volume. While B of A’s $340 target is 41% above the consensus mean, the bearish momentum and upcoming earnings on May 5 suggest traders should await confirmation before taking a bullish position.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 43 analysts covering COIN, 28 rate Buy/Strong Buy (65%), 13 Hold (30%), and 2 Strong Sell (5%). The consensus is decisively bullish, though skewed by two strong-sell outliers.

Mean price target is $241.80, median $234, range $120–$420. Current price $187.77 implies 28.8% upside to the mean and 24.6% to the median. B of A’s $340 target sits 41% above the mean, reflecting strong conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, only 1 rating change occurred: Barclays downgraded COIN to Underweight (PT $140) on April 8. EPS estimates show 0 upward revisions and 6 downward revisions in the current fiscal year alone; the 30-day EPS estimate for the year dropped from $3.79 to $3.13. The trend is uniformly negative.

Firm Track Record — B of A Securities

B of A Securities accuracy: 54% on 3282 calls | avg return: 5.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

B of A has a 54% accuracy rate on 11 COIN calls with an average return of 1.5%. On its overall 3,282 scored stock calls, the firm is 54% accurate with a 5.1% average return. This is above average among COIN analysts, but top performers include Benchmark (100% on 3), Compass Point (75% on 8), and Rosenblatt (75% on 12). B of A’s COIN-specific return (1.5%) lags its overall mark.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 5, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is heavy: HAAS ALESIA J sold ~$2M in each of April, March 16, and March 4. Other insiders (Grewal, Jones) also sold. Congressional trades show two small sells in February. Institutional moves are mixed: FMR trimmed 70.6%, BofA trimmed 31.4%, but Norges Bank added a new billion-dollar position and Wells Fargo doubled. Short interest at 56.3% indicates high bearish sentiment. The insider selling and short interest diverge sharply from B of A’s bullish upgrade.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status