CPA Copa Holdings, S.A.
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Executive Summary
Copa Holdings reported strong 1Q26 results with net profit of $212.5M ($5.16 EPS, +20.5% YoY), operating margin of 24.6%, and total revenue of $1.05B (+17% YoY). The company guided 2Q26 operating margin of 8-12% with 16% capacity growth, but flagged an 80-90% YoY increase in jet fuel prices with only 50% expected recovery via higher revenues in the near term.
Actionable Insight
Copa delivered a strong beat with industry-leading margins and robust demand, but the 2Q26 guidance signals a sharp margin compression from 24.6% to 8-12% due to an 80-90% YoY fuel price spike with only partial pass-through. Watch the May 14 conference call for fuel hedging updates and whether the full-year 100% fuel recovery target is credible. The $45M buyback and $1.71 dividend provide a floor, but fuel trajectory is the key swing factor.
Key Facts
- Net profit of $212.5M, EPS of $5.16, a 20.5% YoY increase
- Operating margin of 24.6%, up 0.8pp YoY; net margin of 20.2%, up 0.5pp YoY
- Total operating revenue of $1.05B, up 17.0% YoY on 14.0% ASM capacity growth
- Load factor increased 0.8pp to 87.2%; RASM up 2.7% to 11.8 cents
- CASM ex-fuel declined 1.0% to 5.8 cents; CASM increased 1.6% to 8.9 cents due to fuel
- All-in jet fuel price increased 7.5% YoY to $2.73/gal; ~$20M net YoY impact in 1Q26
- Cash and investments of $1.5B (40% of LTM revenue); Adjusted Net Debt/EBITDA of 0.7x
- Repurchased $45M in shares during the quarter (~1% of outstanding)
- 2Q26 guidance: operating margin 8-12%, ASM growth 16% YoY; fuel price expected up 80-90% YoY with 50% revenue recovery
- Full-year 2026 guidance: ASM growth 11-13%, load factor ~87%, ex-fuel CASM ~5.7 cents
- Board ratified $1.71/share dividend payable June 15, 2026
- Announced 40 firm Boeing 737 MAX orders + 20 options for 2030-2034 delivery
Financial Impact
Revenue $1.05B (+17% YoY), net profit $212.5M (+20.2% YoY), EPS $5.16 (+20.5% YoY). 2Q26 operating margin guided 8-12% vs 1Q26 actual 24.6%, reflecting severe fuel headwind.
Risk Factors
- 80-90% YoY jet fuel price increase in 2Q26 with only 50% expected revenue recovery near-term
- 2Q26 operating margin guided to 8-12%, a sharp sequential decline from 24.6% in 1Q26
- Full-year fuel recovery to 100% is aspirational and depends on sustained yield improvements
- Capacity growth of 16% in 2Q26 adds execution risk if demand softens
- Boeing 737 MAX order (40 firm + 20 options) represents significant future capex, though deliveries start in 2030
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-035223 |
| Document: cpa-1q2026x6k.htm | 0001628280-26-035223 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-035223-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-035223 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-035223-index.html | 0001628280-26-035223 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-035223.txt | 0001628280-26-035223 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 14, 2026
9d ago
|
6-K
| $135.00 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $137.00 (+1.48%) |
|
May 13, 2026
10d ago
|
Press Release
| $135.51 $135.51 | · 0.00% | ▼ −0.01% | $137.00 (+1.10%) |
|
Apr 13, 2026
5w ago
|
6-K
| $120.90 $120.68 | ▼ −0.18% | ▼ −0.96% | $137.00 (+13.32%) |
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