FLUT Flutter Entertainment plc
Price Chart
Executive Summary
HSBC upgraded Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) from Hold to Buy with a $228 price target, representing 147% upside from the $92.38 close. The call is part of a massive 18-firm analyst cluster on FLUT, but HSBC's prior PT was $265, so the new target is actually a 14% cut. Consensus is heavily bullish: 26 of 32 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $163.58 (77% upside). HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return — slightly above average. However, EPS estimates have been revised down sharply: the current quarter EPS estimate dropped from $2.11 to $0.52 over 30 days, and the full-year estimate fell from $6.47 to $5.93. The most powerful signal is insider buying: CEO Kenneth Dart purchased $101M in stock over two days (May 13-14), the largest insider buy on record for FLUT. Short interest is extremely elevated at 70.5% of float. The convergence of a massive insider buy, a contrarian analyst upgrade (against a PT cut), and extreme short interest creates a high-conviction setup. Bottom line: the HSBC upgrade alone is routine, but the CEO's $101M buy is a powerful bullish contra-signal that overrides the analyst's PT reduction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 6 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (32 analysts total). 81% of analysts rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, making HSBC's upgrade consensus-aligned in direction but contrarian in the context of a lowered PT.
Current price: $92.38. Mean target: $163.58 (77% upside). Median: $155.50. High: $341 (269% upside). Low: $80 (13% downside). HSBC's $228 target is 39% above the mean and 47% above the median — one of the most bullish targets on the Street. The wide range ($80-$341) reflects extreme uncertainty.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $150.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $161.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Citizens | maintain | Market Outperform | $165.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $130.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Benchmark | maintain | Buy | $132.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $190.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Bernstein | maintain | Market Perform | $115.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | Needham | maintain | Buy | $135.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $126.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $140.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. However, EPS revisions are sharply negative: current quarter EPS estimate fell from $2.11 to $0.52 (75% drop) over 30 days, with 6 downward revisions vs 0 upward. Full-year estimate fell from $6.47 to $5.93 (8% drop), with 12 downward revisions vs 1 upward. The negative revision trend is a major headwind.
Firm Track Record — HSBC
HSBC accuracy: 55% on 263 calls | avg return: 5.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig-Hallum | 100% | 2/2 | 6.3% | top tier |
| Susquehanna | 67% | 4/6 | 4.7% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 67% | 4/6 | 2.6% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 57% | 8/14 | 3.3% | above average |
| Needham | 56% | 5/9 | -3.8% | above average |
| B of A Securities | 50% | 1/2 | -23.6% | below average |
| Barclays | 50% | 5/10 | -4.7% | below average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 6/12 | -0.7% | below average |
| MoffettNathanson | 50% | 1/2 | -2.2% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 1/2 | -10.5% | below average |
HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return — slightly above the average firm. Among firms covering FLUT, Craig-Hallum (100% on 2 calls) and Susquehanna (67% on 6) are top-tier. Stifel (17% on 6) and Macquarie (25% on 4) are the worst performers. HSBC's track record is decent but not elite.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $0.52 | $0.04 — $1.14 | $4.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $5.93 | $4.63 — $8.22 | $18.3B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.81 | $-0.16 — $2.37 | $4.3B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $3.95 | $1.85 — $9.85 | $20.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: CEO Kenneth Dart bought $101M in stock on May 13-14 — the largest insider buy in FLUT's history. This is a powerful bullish signal. Other insiders (Carolan Lennon, Daniel Taylor) also bought small amounts. One insider (Don H. Liu) sold $117K — negligible. Short interest is 70.5% of float, extremely elevated. No congressional trades. No institutional changes reported. The CEO's massive buy strongly diverges from the bearish EPS revision trend, creating a classic 'insider buying into weakness' setup.
Actionable Insight
The HSBC upgrade alone is routine, but the CEO's $101M insider buy is a rare high-conviction signal that historically predicts ~6% abnormal returns. With 70.5% short interest, any positive catalyst could trigger a massive short squeeze. Traders should view this as a high-risk/high-reward long setup, but wait for confirmation of a reversal in the EPS revision trend before adding size.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $100.54 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $104.95 (+4.39%) |
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Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
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144
| $101.99 $100.70 | ▼ −1.26% | ▼ −0.57% | $104.95 (+2.90%) |
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Jun 1, 2026
8d ago
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8-K
| $104.31 $101.99 | ▼ −2.22% | ▼ −2.37% | $104.95 (+0.61%) |
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May 29, 2026
11d ago
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Insider Cluster
| $104.31 $101.99 | ▼ −2.22% | ▼ −2.37% | $104.95 (+0.61%) |
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May 29, 2026
11d ago
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Press Release
| $96.98 $104.31 | ▲ +7.56% | ▲ +7.28% | $104.95 (+8.22%) |
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May 29, 2026
11d ago
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3
| $96.98 $104.31 | ▲ +7.56% | ▲ +7.28% | $104.95 (+8.22%) |
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May 29, 2026
11d ago
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3
| $96.98 $104.31 | ▲ +7.56% | ▲ +7.28% | $104.95 (+8.22%) |
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May 29, 2026
11d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $96.98 $104.31 | ▲ +7.56% | ▲ +7.28% | $104.95 (+8.22%) |
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May 28, 2026
12d ago
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144
| $95.58 $96.98 | ▲ +1.46% | ▲ +1.23% | $104.95 (+9.80%) |
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May 28, 2026
12d ago
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144
| $95.58 $96.98 | ▲ +1.46% | ▲ +1.23% | $104.95 (+9.80%) |
US Market Status
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