GPK GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 5, 2026 Processed 1mo ago SEC 0001408075-26-000016
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+20d
GPK ▲ +0.28% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -0.28% · α vs SPY +4.67% · entry $10.73 → $10.76
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Last close $10.52 (close Jun 8) · +1.96% from $10.73 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 4, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+4.38%
call -4.38% · α -3.00%
$11.20
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-4.75%
call +4.75% · α +6.74%
$10.22
settled 29d ago
T+20d
+0.28%
call -0.28% · α +4.67%
$10.76
settled 7d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Graphic Packaging reported Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $43M (-$0.14/diluted share) vs net income of $127M ($0.42/share) a year ago, driven by $71M in restructuring and special charges. Revenue grew 2% to $2,156M on 1% volume growth and FX tailwinds, but Adjusted EBITDA plunged 36% to $232M (10.8% margin vs 17.2%). The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of $8.4B-$8.6B revenue, $1.05B-$1.25B Adjusted EBITDA, and $0.75-$1.15 Adjusted EPS, and announced a restructuring plan including 500+ job cuts and $60M in cost savings.

Key Financial Metrics

Guidance
$8.4B-$8.6B
maintained
Free Cash Flow
-$183.0M

Actionable Insight

The adjusted EPS beat of 48% on a GAAP loss is a classic 'earnings quality' red flag — the beat is entirely from add-backs for restructuring charges. With net leverage at 4.4x and Adjusted EBITDA margins collapsing, the stock is likely to sell off on the deteriorating underlying profitability despite the headline beat. Watch for execution on the $60M cost savings program and the Croatia divestiture as catalysts for deleveraging.

Key Facts

  • GAAP net loss of $43M (-$0.14/diluted share) vs net income of $127M ($0.42) in Q1 2025
  • Adjusted EPS (Street convention) of $0.09 beat consensus estimate of $0.06 by 48.1%
  • Revenue of $2,156M (+2% YoY) beat consensus estimate of $2,050M
  • Adjusted EBITDA fell 36% to $232M from $365M; margin compressed to 10.8% from 17.2%
  • Net leverage ratio increased to 4.4x from 3.8x in Q4 2025 and 3.5x in Q1 2025
  • Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: revenue $8.4B-$8.6B, Adj. EBITDA $1.05B-$1.25B, Adj. EPS $0.75-$1.15
  • Restructuring plan: 500+ job cuts, $60M cost savings target, $200M+ capital avoidance
  • Pending divestiture of non-core assets in Croatia
  • Workforce reduction and restructuring charges of $71M in the quarter

Financial Impact

GAAP net loss of $43M vs prior-year profit of $127M; Adjusted EBITDA down $133M YoY; restructuring charges of $71M

net incomeadjusted ebitdaadjusted ebitda marginnet leveragecash flow

Risk Factors

  • Net leverage at 4.4x limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk
  • Restructuring execution risk — 500+ job cuts may disrupt operations
  • Continued input cost inflation and competitive pricing pressure
  • Pending divestiture may not close at expected terms
  • Full-year guidance implies H2 ramp that may not materialize if demand weakens

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Paperboard Containers & Boxes
Analyst Consensus
5% bullish (19 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001408075-26-000016
Document: gpk-20260505.htm0001408075-26-000016
Document: 0001408075-26-000016-index-headers.html0001408075-26-000016
Document: 0001408075-26-000016-index.html0001408075-26-000016
Document: 0001408075-26-000016.txt0001408075-26-000016
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001408075-26-000016
5 reports for GPK
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

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Reports for GPK — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 26, 2026
14d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$10.29 $11.21▲ +8.94%▲ +7.86%$10.52 (+2.24%)
May 5, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$10.73 $10.22▲ +4.75%▲ +6.74%$10.52 (+1.96%)
Mar 11, 2026
12w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$9.71 $9.36▼ −3.60%▼ −2.63%$10.52 (+8.34%)
Mar 4, 2026
14w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$11.06 $10.15▼ −8.31%▼ −6.98%$10.52 (−4.92%)
Feb 27, 2026
14w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$12.09 $11.09▼ −8.26%▼ −6.28%$10.52 (−13.01%)
Showing 5 of 5

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