ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Raymond James upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) from Outperform to Strong Buy with a price target of $210, representing 32.9% upside from the current $158.09. The move is part of a six-firm cluster of analyst actions on October 13, 2025, including RBC Capital, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls overall, but 67% on its three prior ICE calls—though those averaged a -4.6% return. Consensus is heavily bullish: 18 of 21 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, and none Sell. The mean price target is $198.80 (25.7% upside), with a high of $240 and low of $174. EPS revisions over the past 30 days are net positive for the current and next fiscal years (11 up vs 2 down for 0y; 9 up vs 3 down for +1y), though near-term estimates are mixed. Insider selling has been persistent—five sell transactions totaling over $2.3M in February-March 2026—and institutional activity shows exits from Two Sigma and Renaissance, offset by a massive new $1.4B position from Norges Bank. The cluster signal aligns with consensus, but the insider and institutional divergence tempers conviction. Bottom line: The upgrade reinforces an already bullish Street view, but the lack of contrarian edge means traders should monitor for additional catalysts before adding size.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (21 analysts total). 85.7% rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. Raymond James' upgrade aligns with this direction, making it a consensus-aligned call rather than contrarian.
Current price: $158.09. Mean target: $198.80 (25.7% upside). Median: $198.00. High: $240 (51.8% upside). Low: $174 (10.1% upside). Raymond James' $210 target sits above the mean and median but below the high, implying above-consensus conviction.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $201.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $211.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $187.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $198.00 |
| 2026-02-10 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $183.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $193.00 |
| 2026-01-15 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $180.00 |
| 2026-01-14 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $193.00 |
| 2026-01-14 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $195.00 |
| 2026-01-08 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $182.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades reported, though the current cluster may not be captured in that window. EPS revisions over 30 days are net positive: current fiscal year (0y) had 11 upward vs 2 downward revisions; next fiscal year (+1y) saw 9 up vs 3 down. Near-term quarter (+1q) is evenly split 4 up vs 4 down, suggesting some caution on near-term results.
Firm Track Record — Raymond James
Raymond James accuracy: 54% on 1636 calls | avg return: 3.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | 100% | 6/6 | 7.4% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 100% | 2/2 | 8.7% | top tier |
| Barclays | 79% | 11/14 | 3.4% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 75% | 3/4 | 3.5% | top tier |
| UBS | 67% | 2/3 | 4.5% | top tier |
| Raymond James | 67% | 2/3 | -4.6% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 4% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 50% | 3/6 | 2.1% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 50% | 2/4 | -0.8% | below average |
| TD Cowen | 50% | 1/2 | 7.5% | below average |
Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls overall, with an average return of 3.4%. On ICE specifically, they are 2-for-3 (67% accuracy) but with a negative average return of -4.6%. Top performers on ICE include Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (100% on 6 calls, +7.4% avg return) and Barclays (79% on 14 calls, +3.4% avg return). Weakest is Piper Sandler (0% on 2 calls, -10.7% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $1.89 | $1.74 — $2.01 | $2.7B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.98 | $1.82 — $2.24 | $2.7B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0y | $8.02 | $7.66 — $8.37 | $10.9B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.72 | $8.24 — $9.04 | $11.5B | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trading shows consistent selling: 5 transactions from February-March 2026 totaling ~$2.4M. Congressional activity: one sell by Rep. Julia Letlow (R) worth $1,001-$15,000. Institutional changes: Two Sigma and Renaissance Technologies exited entirely; BofA trimmed 49% and FMR trimmed 26.7%. However, Norges Bank initiated a massive $1.4B position. Short interest data is unavailable. Signal divergence: analyst bullishness conflicts with insider selling and some institutional exits, while the Norges Bank entry provides a bullish cross-current.
Actionable Insight
The cluster upgrade confirms the Street's bullish consensus and upward EPS revisions, but insider selling and mixed institutional flows introduce caution. Traders should view this as a reinforcing signal rather than a catalyst for new entries—wait for earnings (July 29, 2026) or a pullback near support before adding long exposure.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 12, 2026
4d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $140.53 $140.10 | ▼ −0.31% | ▼ −2.07% | $141.28 (+0.53%) |
|
May 31, 2026
16d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $158.65 $158.14 | ▼ −0.32% | ▼ −0.20% | $141.28 (−10.95%) |
|
May 28, 2026
19d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $147.63 $144.87 | ▼ −1.87% | ▼ −2.13% | $141.28 (−4.30%) |
|
May 20, 2026
27d ago
|
144
| $151.10 $153.09 | ▲ +1.32% | ▲ +0.87% | $141.28 (−6.50%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $158.65 $158.14 | ▼ −0.32% | ▼ −0.20% | $141.28 (−10.95%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
|
8-K
| $157.58 $154.66 | ▼ −1.85% | ▼ −2.07% | $141.28 (−10.34%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
15w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $164.58 $164.65 | ▲ +0.04% | ▲ +0.96% | $141.28 (−14.16%) |
|
Feb 20, 2026
16w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $153.92 $154.02 | ▲ +0.07% | ▲ +1.07% | $141.28 (−8.21%) |
US Market Status
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