ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

BULLISH Impact: 3/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-ICE-raymondj-20251013
6 firms acted on ICE: Raymond James, Raymond James, RBC Capital, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
ICE ▲ +2.02% at T+60d
LONG call ✓ call won +2.02% · α vs SPY -1.97% · entry $158.65 → $161.86
Currently $141.28 · -10.95% from $158.65 entry
Entry anchored
Oct 13, 12:58 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-0.32%
call -0.32% · α -0.20%
$158.14
settled 8mo ago
T+5d
-2.19%
call -2.19% · α -3.42%
$155.17
settled 8mo ago
T+20d
-5.84%
call -5.84% · α -8.58%
$149.39
settled 7mo ago
T+60d
+2.02%
call +2.02% · α -1.97%
$161.86
settled 5mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Raymond James upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) from Outperform to Strong Buy with a price target of $210, representing 32.9% upside from the current $158.09. The move is part of a six-firm cluster of analyst actions on October 13, 2025, including RBC Capital, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs. Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls overall, but 67% on its three prior ICE calls—though those averaged a -4.6% return. Consensus is heavily bullish: 18 of 21 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, 3 Hold, and none Sell. The mean price target is $198.80 (25.7% upside), with a high of $240 and low of $174. EPS revisions over the past 30 days are net positive for the current and next fiscal years (11 up vs 2 down for 0y; 9 up vs 3 down for +1y), though near-term estimates are mixed. Insider selling has been persistent—five sell transactions totaling over $2.3M in February-March 2026—and institutional activity shows exits from Two Sigma and Renaissance, offset by a massive new $1.4B position from Norges Bank. The cluster signal aligns with consensus, but the insider and institutional divergence tempers conviction. Bottom line: The upgrade reinforces an already bullish Street view, but the lack of contrarian edge means traders should monitor for additional catalysts before adding size.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
3/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
18 (86%)
Hold
3
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
15
Mean PT
$198.80
Median PT
$198.00
High PT
$240.00
Low PT
$174.00
Current Price
$158.09
Implied Upside
+25.8%

Consensus is heavily bullish: 5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (21 analysts total). 85.7% rate the stock a Buy or Strong Buy. Raymond James' upgrade aligns with this direction, making it a consensus-aligned call rather than contrarian.

Current price: $158.09. Mean target: $198.80 (25.7% upside). Median: $198.00. High: $240 (51.8% upside). Low: $174 (10.1% upside). Raymond James' $210 target sits above the mean and median but below the high, implying above-consensus conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-01 Barclays maintain Overweight $201.00
2026-04-15 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $211.00
2026-04-10 Morgan Stanley maintain Equal-Weight $187.00
2026-04-08 Barclays maintain Overweight $198.00
2026-02-10 Morgan Stanley maintain Equal-Weight $183.00
2026-02-06 Barclays maintain Overweight $193.00
2026-01-15 Morgan Stanley maintain Equal-Weight $180.00
2026-01-14 TD Cowen maintain Buy $193.00
2026-01-14 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $195.00
2026-01-08 Barclays maintain Overweight $182.00

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades reported, though the current cluster may not be captured in that window. EPS revisions over 30 days are net positive: current fiscal year (0y) had 11 upward vs 2 downward revisions; next fiscal year (+1y) saw 9 up vs 3 down. Near-term quarter (+1q) is evenly split 4 up vs 4 down, suggesting some caution on near-term results.

Firm Track Record — Raymond James

Raymond James accuracy: 54% on 1636 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 100% 6/6 7.4% top tier
Citigroup 100% 2/2 8.7% top tier
Barclays 79% 11/14 3.4% top tier
Deutsche Bank 75% 3/4 3.5% top tier
UBS 67% 2/3 4.5% top tier
Raymond James 67% 2/3 -4.6% top tier
B of A Securities 67% 2/3 4% top tier
Morgan Stanley 50% 3/6 2.1% below average
RBC Capital 50% 2/4 -0.8% below average
TD Cowen 50% 1/2 7.5% below average

Raymond James has a 54% accuracy rate on 1,636 calls overall, with an average return of 3.4%. On ICE specifically, they are 2-for-3 (67% accuracy) but with a negative average return of -4.6%. Top performers on ICE include Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (100% on 6 calls, +7.4% avg return) and Barclays (79% on 14 calls, +3.4% avg return). Weakest is Piper Sandler (0% on 2 calls, -10.7% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1q $1.89 $1.74 — $2.01 $2.7B ↑2 ↓0
0q $1.98 $1.82 — $2.24 $2.7B ↑3 ↓0
0y $8.02 $7.66 — $8.37 $10.9B ↑3 ↓0
+1y $8.72 $8.24 — $9.04 $11.5B ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Julia Letlow (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — exit (-100%)
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new

Insider trading shows consistent selling: 5 transactions from February-March 2026 totaling ~$2.4M. Congressional activity: one sell by Rep. Julia Letlow (R) worth $1,001-$15,000. Institutional changes: Two Sigma and Renaissance Technologies exited entirely; BofA trimmed 49% and FMR trimmed 26.7%. However, Norges Bank initiated a massive $1.4B position. Short interest data is unavailable. Signal divergence: analyst bullishness conflicts with insider selling and some institutional exits, while the Norges Bank entry provides a bullish cross-current.

Actionable Insight

The cluster upgrade confirms the Street's bullish consensus and upward EPS revisions, but insider selling and mixed institutional flows introduce caution. Traders should view this as a reinforcing signal rather than a catalyst for new entries—wait for earnings (July 29, 2026) or a pullback near support before adding long exposure.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

8 reports for ICE
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for ICE — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 12, 2026
4d ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
$140.53 $140.10▼ −0.31%▼ −2.07%$141.28 (+0.53%)
May 31, 2026
16d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$158.65 $158.14▼ −0.32%▼ −0.20%$141.28 (−10.95%)
May 28, 2026
19d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$147.63 $144.87▼ −1.87%▼ −2.13%$141.28 (−4.30%)
May 20, 2026
27d ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$151.10 $153.09▲ +1.32%▲ +0.87%$141.28 (−6.50%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$158.65 $158.14▼ −0.32%▼ −0.20%$141.28 (−10.95%)
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$157.58 $154.66▼ −1.85%▼ −2.07%$141.28 (−10.34%)
Feb 28, 2026
15w ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$164.58 $164.65▲ +0.04%▲ +0.96%$141.28 (−14.16%)
Feb 20, 2026
16w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$153.92 $154.02▲ +0.07%▲ +1.07%$141.28 (−8.21%)
Showing 8 of 8

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