ISRG INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Citigroup upgraded Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) to Buy from Neutral on March 11, 2026, maintaining its $590 price target. The move came as part of a cluster of 10 firms acting on the stock, though Citigroup’s track record is mediocre at 57% accuracy on 7 calls with a -1.4% average return. The broader consensus is heavily bullish — 71% Buy/Strong Buy among 41 analysts, with a mean price target of $577, implying 26% upside from the current $457.61. Citigroup’s target sits slightly above the mean at $590. Earnings estimates are rising sharply: FY2026 EPS has seen 23 upward revisions in the past 30 days with zero downgrades. However, insider selling persists — Amy Ladd sold $292K worth of shares in late April — and short interest is elevated at 55.5% off-exchange volume, a bearish divergence. The upgrade aligns with consensus and lacks a fresh catalyst, reducing its standalone significance.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 11 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 41 analysts — 71% Buy/Strong Buy. This aligns with the upgrade, making it a non-contrarian call and reducing its marginal impact.
Current price: $457.61. Mean target: $577.01 (implied upside +26%), median $580, high $750, low $378. Citigroup’s PT of $590 sits above the mean and median, implying +28.9% upside — slightly more aggressive than the consensus average but unchanged from its prior target.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $651.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Leerink Partners | maintain | Outperform | $573.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $610.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $580.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | BTIG | reiterate | Buy | $574.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $580.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $525.00 |
| 2026-04-10 | BTIG | reiterate | Buy | $616.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | $609.00 |
| 2026-04-06 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $480.00 |
Zero upgrades or downgrades among analysts in the past 30 days, suggesting a calm period. However, EPS revisions are strongly positive: FY2026 EPS has 23 upward revisions vs 0 downward in the last 30 days, and the current quarter shows 16 upward revisions in the past week — a bullish fundamental tailwind.
Firm Track Record — Citigroup
Citigroup accuracy: 55% on 4355 calls | avg return: 4.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 100% | 3/3 | 9.9% | top tier |
| Baird | 100% | 5/5 | 12.1% | top tier |
| Stifel | 100% | 4/4 | 11.7% | top tier |
| BTIG | 91% | 10/11 | 14.5% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 86% | 6/7 | 9.9% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 75% | 6/8 | 7.9% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 71% | 5/7 | 6.3% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 67% | 2/3 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Barclays | 67% | 2/3 | 11.3% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 64% | 7/11 | 3.6% | top tier |
Citigroup has a 57% accuracy rate on 7 scored ISRG calls, with an average return of -1.4%. This ranks below the top-tier firms covering ISRG — BTIG (91% on 11 calls, avg return +14.5%), Baird (100% on 5 calls, +12.1%), and Stifel (100% on 4 calls, +11.7%). Citigroup’s average return is the worst among all tracked firms for ISRG, making this a low-conviction signal.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.50 | $2.41 — $2.61 | $2.8B | ↑16 ↓0 |
| +1y | $11.79 | $10.86 — $12.61 | $13.3B | ↑23 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.58 | $2.44 — $2.75 | $2.9B | ↑9 ↓0 |
| 0y | $10.41 | $10.14 — $10.76 | $11.7B | ↑23 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trading is bearish: Amy Ladd sold $292K in late April, and other insiders sold in March. Institutional moves are mixed: FMR LLC added 31.6% then later trimmed 42.3%; Norges Bank entered and then exited. Short interest is elevated at 55.5% off-exchange volume, indicating significant bearish positioning. This divergence — bullish upgrades but insider selling and high short interest — suggests the stock faces headwinds despite analyst optimism.
Actionable Insight
The Citigroup upgrade alone is not a strong entry signal given the firm's poor track record and lack of a price target increase. Traders should watch for insider buying or a short squeeze catalyst before adding long exposure.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 12, 2026
today
|
Insider Cluster
| $411.09 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $411.06 (−0.01%) |
|
May 31, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $491.53 $477.67 | ▼ −2.82% | ▼ −0.63% | $411.06 (−16.37%) |
|
May 28, 2026
15d ago
|
8-K
| $423.73 $421.91 | ▼ −0.43% | ▲ +2.09% | $411.06 (−2.99%) |
|
May 1, 2026
6w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $491.53 $477.67 | ▼ −2.82% | ▼ −0.63% | $411.06 (−16.37%) |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
Press Release
| $483.42 $451.52 | ▼ −6.60% | ▼ −6.65% | $411.06 (−14.97%) |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
8-K
| $483.42 $451.52 | ▼ −6.60% | ▼ −6.65% | $411.06 (−14.97%) |
|
Mar 13, 2026
13w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $483.23 $476.73 | ▼ −1.34% | ▲ +0.70% | $411.06 (−14.93%) |
|
Mar 3, 2026
14w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $496.27 $485.63 | ▲ +2.14% | ▲ +1.67% | $411.06 (+17.17%) |
|
Feb 27, 2026
15w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $502.05 $490.10 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −0.40% | $411.06 (−18.12%) |
|
Feb 27, 2026
15w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $502.05 $490.10 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −0.40% | $411.06 (−18.12%) |
US Market Status
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