MA Mastercard Inc

BULLISH Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-MA-bmocapit-20260422
BMO Capital initiates coverage on MA at Outperform
Latest settled — T+20d
MA ▼ -2.04% at T+20d
LONG call ✗ call lost -2.04% · α vs SPY -5.21% · entry $510.11 → $499.70
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Last close $485.67 (close Jun 8) · -4.79% from $510.11 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 22, 11:13 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.52%
call -1.52% · α -1.13%
$502.36
settled 7w ago
T+5d
+3.36%
call +3.36% · α +3.30%
$527.24
settled 6w ago
T+20d
-2.04%
call -2.04% · α -5.21%
$499.70
settled 21d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

BMO Capital initiates coverage on Mastercard (MA) with an Outperform rating and $605 price target, implying 18.3% upside from the current $511.35. The firm has a perfect 100% accuracy rate (3/3 calls correct), ranking it top tier among 15 firms covering MA. Consensus remains strongly bullish: 43 analysts, 93% Buy-equivalent, with a mean PT of $654.66 (+28% upside). Recent EPS revisions are positive: 5 up, 1 down in the last 30 days. Momentum is neutral with 2 recent upgrades, but earnings are due tomorrow. Congressional buys (Capito, McCaul) align with the bullish signal, though institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank exited while Mawer added 81.6%. Bottom line: high-accuracy firm adds bullish conviction ahead of earnings.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
43 (90%)
Hold
5
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
35
Mean PT
$654.66
Median PT
$665.00
High PT
$735.00
Low PT
$550.00
Current Price
$511.35
Implied Upside
+28%

Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 43 analysts, 13 Strong Buy, 30 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell. 93% of ratings are Buy-equivalent. The consensus direction is firmly positive, with no bearish pressure. This initiation aligns with the prevailing sentiment but adds incremental credibility due to BMO’s top-tier accuracy.

The consensus mean price target is $654.66, median $665, range $550–$735. MA trades at $511.35, implying 28.1% upside to the mean. BMO’s $605 target is below the mean (-7.6%) and median (-9.0%), but still implies 18.3% upside. It ranks in the bottom quartile of targets but is above the low of $550.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-22 BMO Capital initiate Outperform $605.00
2026-04-14 Citigroup maintain Buy $675.00
2026-04-01 Evercore ISI Group maintain In-Line $550.00
2026-03-31 Loop Capital initiate Buy $631.00
2026-03-31 UBS maintain Buy $650.00
2026-03-13 Tigress Financial maintain Strong Buy $735.00
2026-02-13 Freedom Broker upgrade Buy $675.00
2026-01-30 JP Morgan maintain Overweight $655.00
2026-01-30 TD Cowen maintain Buy $671.00
2026-01-30 Macquarie maintain Outperform $675.00

Over the past 30 days, there have been 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS estimates are trending up: 5 revisions higher, 1 lower in the past 30 days. Current FY0 EPS estimate is $19.60, up from $19.59 30 days ago. +1Y EPS estimate is $22.67, up from $22.64, indicating sustained earnings momentum.

Firm Track Record — BMO Capital

BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
BMO Capital 100% 3/3 10.6% top tier
Piper Sandler 83% 5/6 4.6% top tier
Jefferies 75% 3/4 1.6% top tier
Truist Securities 75% 3/4 0.2% top tier
JP Morgan 71% 5/7 5.3% top tier
Citigroup 67% 4/6 2.4% top tier
Morgan Stanley 67% 4/6 4% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 67% 2/3 4.1% top tier
Mizuho 67% 2/3 2.4% top tier
Keybanc 60% 3/5 3.4% above average

BMO Capital has a 100% accuracy rate on MA (3/3 calls correct), the highest of any firm covering the stock. Its average return on rated MA shares is 10.6%, tied for highest with BofA Securities. Among 15 firms, 10 are top-tier; BMO ranks #1 in accuracy and tied for #1 in avg return, making it a standout performer.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Apr 23, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $4.42 $4.27 — $4.50 $8.3B ↑4 ↓0
+1q $4.85 $4.75 — $5.01 $9.1B ↑1 ↓0
0y $19.60 $19.15 — $20.11 $37.0B ↑4 ↓0
+1y $22.67 $21.90 — $23.59 $41.6B ↑4 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Congressional
Shelley Moore Capito (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Michael McCaul (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Michael McCaul (republican) — buy $15,001 - $50,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — near_exit (-91%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — exit (-100%)

Congressional trades show bullish alignment: 2 buys (Capito, McCaul), 1 sell (Whitehouse). Insider trades: none. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank fully exited ($6.7B position), while Mawer Investment added 81.6%. Renaissance Technologies trimmed 66% and is near exit. No short interest data available. Divergence exists: institutions are reducing exposure, but congressional and analyst signals are bullish.

Actionable Insight

BMO’s initiation from a 100%-accurate firm adds high-conviction bullish input one day before earnings. Position for upside break on strong print, but monitor institutional outflows as a risk factor.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

6 reports for MA
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate 2 of 3 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +2.68%May 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for MA — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$484.00 awaiting T+20awaiting T+20$485.67 (+0.35%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$518.25 $506.51▼ −2.27%▼ −0.44%$485.67 (−6.29%)
May 22, 2026
18d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$510.11 $497.16▼ −2.54%▼ −6.77%$485.67 (−4.79%)
Apr 30, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$501.79 $493.12▼ −1.73%▼ −6.95%$485.67 (−3.21%)
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$507.09 $493.01▼ −2.78%▼ −8.24%$485.67 (−4.22%)
Apr 22, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$510.11 $499.70▼ −2.04%▼ −5.21%$485.67 (−4.79%)
Showing 6 of 6

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