MA Mastercard Inc
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BMO Capital initiated coverage on Mastercard with an Outperform rating and a $605 price target, implying 21% upside from the current $499.62. The call comes from a firm with a perfect 100% accuracy rate on its three MA calls, though the sample is small. The broader consensus is heavily bullish — 90% of analysts rate the stock Buy (45 of 50). BMO's $605 PT is below the consensus mean of $647 and median of $663, signaling a more conservative bullish stance. Near-term EPS estimates have been revised downward 23 times for the current quarter, creating a tension with the positive analyst catalyst. Congressional buys from Reps. McCaul and Khanna add a modest vote of confidence, while the massive new Norges Bank institutional position signals accumulation. The initiation reinforces the bullish narrative but the soft near-term earnings revisions warrant caution on entry timing.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 50 analysts covering MA, 13 rate it Strong Buy, 32 Buy, and 5 Hold — zero Sells. That's 90% Buy-equivalent ratings. The consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, making BMO's Outperform rating fully aligned with the Street view. The initiation does not shift the consensus distribution but reinforces its direction.
Current price: $499.62. Consensus price targets: mean $646.97, median $662.50, high $735.00 (by JP Morgan), low $550.00 (by Evercore ISI). BMO's $605 PT sits 6.5% below the mean and 8.7% below the median, making it one of the more conservative bullish targets. The implied upside from current price to mean is ~29.5%; to BMO's PT is ~21.1%.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $561.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | Macquarie | maintain | Outperform | $665.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $640.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $629.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | Susquehanna | maintain | Positive | $665.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | $590.00 |
| 2026-04-22 | BMO Capital | initiate | Outperform | $605.00 |
| 2026-04-14 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $675.00 |
| 2026-04-01 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $550.00 |
| 2026-03-31 | Loop Capital | initiate | Buy | $631.00 |
In the last 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades on MA. EPS revisions paint a mixed picture: the current quarter (0q) saw 23 downward revisions and 0 upward; next quarter (+1q) had 18 down vs 4 up. However, full-year 0y and +1y estimates show 20 and 22 upward revisions respectively, suggesting near-term softness but long-term optimism. The initiation from BMO is the only notable analyst event in the period.
Firm Track Record — BMO Capital
BMO Capital accuracy: 53% on 1844 calls | avg return: 2.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 10.6% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 83% | 5/6 | 4.6% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 75% | 3/4 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 75% | 3/4 | 0.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 71% | 5/7 | 5.3% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 4/6 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 4/6 | 4% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 67% | 2/3 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 67% | 2/3 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 60% | 3/5 | 3.4% | above average |
BMO Capital has a 53% accuracy rate on 1,844 total calls across all stocks, with an average return of 2.3%. On MA specifically, BMO is 3 for 3 (100%) with a 10.6% average return, ranking as top tier among MA analysts. The best-performing MA analysts by accuracy: Piper Sandler (83% on 6 calls), Jefferies (75% on 4), Truist (75% on 4). Weakest: B of A, Baird, Barclays, and KBW each at 50% on small samples.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $5.11 | $5.00 — $5.21 | $9.7B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $19.65 | $19.44 — $19.93 | $37.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $4.76 | $4.61 — $4.85 | $9.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $22.76 | $21.95 — $23.29 | $41.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades reported. Congressional activity includes four small buy trades by Rep. McCaul (Republican) and one larger buy by Rep. Khanna (Democrat) — all in April 2026, aligning with the bullish analyst signal. Institutional flows are mixed: Norges Bank opened a massive new $6.7B position (new), while Renaissance Technologies cut 91% of its stake (near-exit). Short interest data is unavailable. The congressional buys and Norges Bank entry confirm the positive analyst view, while Renaissance's exit introduces a divergence.
Actionable Insight
BMO's high-accuracy initiation reinforces the MA bull case, but the $605 PT is below consensus and near-term EPS revisions are negative. Consider accumulating on dips below $480, watching for a catalyst from the July 29 earnings to confirm the longer-term trajectory.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 2, 2026
10d ago
|
DEFA14A
| $484.00 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $489.98 (+1.24%) |
|
May 31, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $518.25 $506.51 | ▼ −2.27% | ▼ −0.44% | $489.98 (−5.45%) |
|
May 22, 2026
21d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $510.11 $497.16 | ▼ −2.54% | ▼ −6.77% | $489.98 (−3.95%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
|
8-K
| $501.79 $493.12 | ▼ −1.73% | ▼ −6.95% | $489.98 (−2.35%) |
|
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $507.09 $493.01 | ▼ −2.78% | ▼ −8.24% | $489.98 (−3.37%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $510.11 $499.70 | ▼ −2.04% | ▼ −5.21% | $489.98 (−3.95%) |
US Market Status
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