MCD MCDONALDS CORP

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Argus Research upgraded McDonald's (MCD) from Hold to Buy on Feb 13, setting a $380 price target, representing 29.4% upside from the current $293.59. The upgrade was part of a 15-firm cluster acting on MCD that day, underscoring broad analyst attention. Argus has a 54% accuracy rate on 339 calls with a 3.7% average return, placing it in the middle tier among covering firms. The consensus is already bullish, with 57% Buy, 38% Hold, and 5% Sell ratings from 42 analysts. The mean price target is $345 (17.5% upside), and Argus’s $380 sits above the mean and median, aligning with the more optimistic end of the range. However, EPS revisions over the past 30 days are net negative—3 upward vs 13 downward for the current quarter—and estimates are ticking lower. Insider selling has been heavy, with COO Erlinger unloading ~$1.9M in April, contrasting with two Democratic congressmen buying small amounts in March. Short interest is elevated at 55.3% of float, signaling bearish positioning. With earnings due May 7, the upgrade adds a bullish catalyst, but conflicting cross-platform signals suggest a mixed near-term outlook.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is bullish: 24 Buy ratings (57% including Strong Buy and Buy), 16 Hold (38%), and 2 Sell (5%) from 42 analysts. The majority see upside, but the large hold camp indicates caution remains.

Current price: $293.59. Mean target: $345 (17.5% upside), median: $350, high: $407, low: $250. Argus’s $380 PT is 10% above the mean and 8.6% above the median, placing it near the high end of the range. This is an above-consensus call.

Recent Analyst Activity

Over the past 30 days, analyst activity includes 1 upgrade (Rothschild from Sell to Neutral on Apr 23) and 0 downgrades. However, EPS revisions are net negative: for the current quarter, 3 upward revisions vs 13 downward in the last 30 days; for the full year, 3 up vs 14 down. Estimates are drifting lower across all periods.

Firm Track Record — Argus Research

Argus Research accuracy: 54% on 339 calls | avg return: 3.7%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Argus has a 54% accuracy rate on 339 calls, with a 3.7% average return. This is below the top-tier firms covering MCD: Guggenheim (100% on 6 calls, avg return 6.9%), Jefferies (100% on 2, avg 8.8%), and Loop Capital (80% on 5, avg 5.4%). Weaker performers include Morgan Stanley (44% on 9, avg 1.7%) and Baird (43% on 7, avg 0%). Argus’s upgrade carries moderate credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 7, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is heavy: COO Erlinger sold ~$1.9M in April and additional amounts in March; another executive sold $194K in March. On the other hand, two Democratic congressmen bought small amounts in March. Institutional moves are mixed: Norges Bank exited a large position (value ~$2.9B), while Two Sigma Investments doubled its stake (+2666% to ~$203M). Short interest is elevated at 55.3% of float, indicating bearish positioning. This diverges from the bullish analyst upgrade.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status