MCD MCDONALDS CORP

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Rothschild & Co double-upgraded MCD from Sell to Neutral on April 23, 2026, raising its price target to $306 from $260. The firm has a 57% accuracy rate on 40 calls with an average return of 3.1%. The consensus on MCD is heavily bullish: 72% Buy (24 of 42 analysts), 26% Hold, and 2% Sell. The mean price target is $330, implying 16.9% upside from the current $282.27. Rothschild's new PT of $306 sits 7.3% below the mean, reflecting a cautious but improved view. Analyst momentum is flat with zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days, but EPS revisions have been trending lower — 26 downward revisions in the last 30 days for the next quarter. Insider selling by President Erlinger Joseph M. ($1.87M total in April) aligns with the bearish undertone, while two small congressional buys provide a minor bullish contra-signal. The bottom line: Rothschild's upgrade is a modest positive, but the broader consensus remains more optimistic, and the downward EPS revision trend warrants caution.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

The consensus on MCD is heavily bullish: 24 Buy (57%), 8 Strong Buy (19%), 17 Hold (40%), 1 Sell (2%), 0 Strong Sell. Total 42 analysts. The consensus direction is clearly bullish, with 72% of analysts at Buy or Strong Buy.

Mean PT: $330, Median: $327.50, High: $407, Low: $250. Current price: $282.27. Implied upside to mean: 16.9%. Rothschild's PT of $306 is 7.3% below the mean and 6.5% below the median, placing it in the lower half of the range but above the low.

Recent Analyst Activity

Analyst activity is flat: 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days. However, EPS revisions are notably negative: 26 downward revisions vs 0 upward in the last 30 days for the next quarter. The current EPS estimate of $3.45 is down from $3.57 thirty days ago. Full-year 2026 EPS has been revised down 27 times vs 3 up, from $13.20 to $12.99.

Firm Track Record — Rothschild & Co

Rothschild & Co accuracy: 57% on 40 calls | avg return: 3.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Rothschild & Co has a 57% accuracy rate on 40 calls with an average return of 3.1%. This is above the median accuracy of 57% among firms covering MCD. Top-tier firms include Guggenheim (100% on 6 calls, avg return 6.9%), Jefferies (100% on 2 calls, 8.8%), and Deutsche Bank (100% on 2 calls, 16.2%). Lower-tier firms include Baird (43% on 7 calls, 0% avg return) and Morgan Stanley (44% on 9 calls, 1.7%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is significant: President Erlinger Joseph M. sold $1.87M in April 2026, including $806K on April 10 and $101K on April 23 (same day as the upgrade). This selling aligns with the bearish undertone of the EPS revisions. Congressional activity shows two small buys (Rep. Moskowitz $1K-$15K, Rep. Khanna $15K-$50K) in late March, providing a minor bullish contra-signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank entered with a $2.89B position but also exited another, while Two Sigma doubled its position. Short interest is high at 55.2% of TRF volume, indicating elevated bearish positioning.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status