MRNA Moderna, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
HSBC upgraded Moderna (MRNA) from Hold to Buy on November 18, 2024, setting a $58 price target (+26% from current $45.94). This upgrade is part of a 9-firm cluster action, though most other firms in the cluster maintained or reiterated cautious stances. HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return, placing it near the middle of the pack. Consensus is overwhelmingly bearish: 21 Holds, 3 Buys, 3 Sells, and 3 Strong Sells out of 30 analysts. The mean price target is $41.42, implying 10% downside from current levels, making HSBC's $58 target well above consensus. EPS revisions have been trending lower over the past 30 days, with 4 downgrades vs 2 upgrades for the +1y period. Insider and congressional trades show no recent activity, but institutional moves are mixed: FMR LLC doubled its position (+127.9%) while also trimming another (-37.4%), and Bank of America trimmed 39.1%. Short interest is elevated at 60.3% of off-exchange volume, suggesting heavy bearish positioning. The next earnings are due July 30, 2026, so no near-term catalyst. Despite the contrarian upgrade, the firm's middling accuracy and the overwhelming bearish consensus limit the signal's impact. Bottom line: a bullish outlier in a sea of caution, but not enough to shift the narrative alone.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Out of 30 analysts covering MRNA: 0 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 21 Hold, 3 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. That's 10% Buy, 70% Hold, 20% Sell/Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily tilted toward neutral-to-bearish, with no strong bullish conviction.
Current price: $45.94. Mean target: $41.42 (implied -10% downside). Median: $41. High: $69 (Piper Sandler). Low: $21. HSBC's $58 target is 40% above the mean and 41% above the median, making it one of the most bullish on the Street. Only Piper Sandler's $69 is higher.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Barclays | maintain | Equal-Weight | $48.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Piper Sandler | maintain | Overweight | $69.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | $41.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $30.00 |
| 2026-02-17 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $35.00 |
| 2025-12-12 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $28.00 |
| 2025-12-12 | Jefferies | initiate | Hold | $30.00 |
| 2025-11-21 | Piper Sandler | reiterate | Overweight | $63.00 |
| 2025-11-21 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $25.00 |
| 2025-11-21 | Leerink Partners | maintain | Underperform | $18.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions over the past 30 days are negative: for the +1y period, 2 revisions up vs 4 down, and EPS estimates have declined from -4.55 to -4.68. The trend is clearly lower for earnings expectations.
Firm Track Record — HSBC
HSBC accuracy: 55% on 263 calls | avg return: 5.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 13 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 100% | 2/2 | 42.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 75% | 3/4 | 26.9% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 67% | 2/3 | 10% | top tier |
| Leerink Partners | 50% | 1/2 | 48.9% | below average |
| Citigroup | 50% | 1/2 | 31.7% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 50% | 3/6 | -7.9% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 38% | 3/8 | -7.9% | below average |
| Needham | 38% | 3/8 | -14.3% | below average |
| Barclays | 33% | 2/6 | -7.5% | below average |
| Piper Sandler | 25% | 1/4 | 4.5% | below average |
HSBC has a 55% accuracy rate on 263 calls with a 5.5% average return. This is slightly above the average of firms covering MRNA. The best performing firm is Jefferies (100% on 2 calls, +42.6% avg return), while the worst is Oppenheimer (0% on 2 calls, -41.8% avg return). HSBC's track record is decent but not top-tier.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $-2.19 | $-2.44 — $-1.98 | $135.3M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $-4.68 | $-6.16 — $-0.10 | $2.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $-3.88 | $-4.65 — $-1.86 | $236.4M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $-8.25 | $-9.74 — $-6.28 | $2.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: none reported. Congressional trades: none. Institutional changes are mixed: FMR LLC doubled its position (+127.9%) but also trimmed another (-37.4%), suggesting rotation rather than conviction. Bank of America trimmed 39.1%. Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies initiated new positions. Short interest is 60.3% of off-exchange volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning. This divergence — short interest high, institutional moves mixed — does not strongly support the upgrade.
Actionable Insight
HSBC's upgrade is a contrarian call against a deeply bearish consensus, but the firm's middling accuracy and negative EPS revision trend limit its significance. Traders should treat this as a potential floor for the stock, not a catalyst for a breakout, and wait for stronger convergence from other signals.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $39.50 $43.64 | ▲ +10.48% | ▲ +8.89% | $47.60 (+20.50%) |
|
May 22, 2026
18d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $46.99 $45.60 | ▼ −2.96% | ▼ −4.17% | $47.60 (+1.30%) |
|
May 21, 2026
19d ago
|
144
| $47.19 $47.05 | ▼ −0.30% | ▼ −2.15% | $47.60 (+0.87%) |
|
May 8, 2026
4w ago
|
144
| $54.31 $50.03 | ▼ −7.88% | ▼ −9.35% | $47.60 (−12.36%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $39.50 $43.64 | ▲ +10.48% | ▲ +8.89% | $47.60 (+20.50%) |
|
Mar 30, 2026
10w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $48.16 $49.94 | ▲ +3.70% | ▼ −0.60% | $47.60 (−1.17%) |
|
Mar 16, 2026
12w ago
|
DEFA14A
| $53.82 $51.28 | ▼ −4.72% | ▼ −2.06% | $47.60 (−11.56%) |
|
Mar 5, 2026
13w ago
|
8-K
| $53.65 $53.20 | ▲ +0.84% | ▼ −1.40% | $47.60 (+11.28%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $52.82 $55.73 | ▲ +5.51% | ▲ +6.72% | $47.60 (−9.88%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access