MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.

NEUTRAL Impact: 4/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 6, 2026 Processed 1mo ago SEC 0001193125-26-207650
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+20d
MRP ▼ -2.31% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -2.31% · α vs SPY -5.09% · entry $28.19 → $27.54
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Currently $29.13 · +3.33% from $28.19 entry
Entry anchored
May 5, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-4.58%
call -4.58% · α -4.24%
$26.90
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-5.64%
call -5.64% · α -6.77%
$26.60
settled 4w ago
T+20d
-2.31%
call -2.31% · α -5.09%
$27.54
settled 9d ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Millrose Properties reported Q1 2026 AFFO of $0.76 per share (slightly below $0.77 consensus) and revenue of $194.9M (below $200.9M consensus). The company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance for ~10% AFFO growth and $2B capital deployment. Despite the small miss, operational metrics were solid with continued diversification outside Lennar and a strengthened balance sheet.

Actionable Insight

Monitor Q2 2026 results for achievement of the $0.78-$0.80 AFFO run rate target and continued capital deployment progress. The stock may trade range-bound until the next earnings catalyst given the in-line report.

Key Facts

  • Q1 2026 GAAP net income $122.9M ($0.74 per share); AFFO $125.9M ($0.76 per share)
  • Total revenues $194.9M (option fees $185.3M + development loan income $9.6M)
  • Reaffirmed FY2026 guidance: Q2 exit AFFO run rate $0.78-$0.80 per share; ~10% YoY AFFO growth
  • Invested capital outside Lennar MPA grew $365M sequentially to $2.7B; weighted average yield 9.2%
  • Converted credit facility to fully unsecured, adding $500M delayed-draw term loan; total liquidity $1.5B

Financial Impact

Revenue miss of ~3% versus consensus; AFFO per share in line with expectations; net income flat versus prior quarter

revenueepsaffo

Risk Factors

  • Interest rate sensitivity — further SOFR declines could compress option rate spreads
  • Homebuilding market slowdown affecting builder demand for option purchases
  • Concentration risk with Lennar (approx 69% of invested capital)

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Real Estate
Analyst Consensus
80% bullish (5 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-207650
Document: ck0002017206-20260506.htm0001193125-26-207650
Document: ck0002017206-ex99_2.htm0001193125-26-207650
Document: 0001193125-26-207650-index-headers.html0001193125-26-207650
Document: 0001193125-26-207650-index.html0001193125-26-207650
Document: 0001193125-26-207650.txt0001193125-26-207650
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001193125-26-207650
3 reports for MRP
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for MRP — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 19, 2026
24d ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$27.66 $28.06▲ +1.45%▲ +0.21%$29.13 (+5.31%)
May 6, 2026
5w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$28.19 $26.60▼ −5.64%▼ −6.77%$29.13 (+3.33%)
Feb 26, 2026
15w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$30.28 $29.84▼ −1.45%▼ −0.32%$29.13 (−3.80%)
Showing 3 of 3

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (48h 48m)

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