MS MORGAN STANLEY

MIXED Impact: 3/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 3d 14h ago SEC analyst-MS-ubs-20260407
UBS double upgrade: Neutral → Buy
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
MS ▲ +12.38% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +12.38% · α vs SPY +2.60% · entry $168.36 → $189.21
Next anchor: T+60d in 22d
Last close $212.24 (close Jun 8) · +26.07% from $168.36 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 6, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+4.54%
call +4.54% · α +2.00%
$176.01
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
+8.61%
call +8.61% · α +3.28%
$182.85
settled 8w ago
T+20d
+12.38%
call +12.38% · α +2.60%
$189.21
settled 5w ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 22d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

UBS double-upgraded Morgan Stanley from Neutral to Buy on April 7, 2026, with a $196 price target, down from $195. The stock currently trades at $211.93, implying a 7.5% downside to the new target. UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,084 calls with a 4.6% average return, ranking as top tier among covering firms. Consensus is mixed: 18 Buy (8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy), 14 Hold, 0 Sell from 32 analysts. The mean target is $203.29, median $205, with a high of $230 and low of $165. UBS's $196 target sits below both the mean and median, making this a contrarian call from a high-accuracy firm. EPS revisions are positive: 18 upward revisions vs 1 downward for the current fiscal year, and 18 up vs 1 down for next year. Insider selling is notable: four executives sold over $5.5M in mid-April, including CFO Daniel Simkowitz ($2.78M) and COO Eric Grossman ($1.06M). Short interest is elevated at 62.6% of float. The next earnings report is due July 14, 2026. Bottom line: UBS's double upgrade is a bullish signal from a credible firm, but the target implies downside, and heavy insider selling plus high short interest create a conflicting picture. Traders should treat this as a cautious bullish call with significant headwinds.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
3/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
18 (56%)
Hold
14
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
21
Mean PT
$203.29
Median PT
$205.00
High PT
$230.00
Low PT
$165.00
Current Price
$211.93
Implied Upside
-4.1%

Of 32 analysts covering MS, 18 rate it Buy (8 Strong Buy, 10 Buy), 14 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell. The consensus is tilted bullish but with a large hold contingent, indicating uncertainty.

The mean price target is $203.29, median $205, high $230, low $165. At $211.93, MS trades above the mean and median, implying a 4.1% downside to the mean. UBS's $196 target is below both the mean and median, making it one of the more bearish targets among Buy ratings.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-08 Citigroup maintain Neutral $194.00
2026-04-16 Barclays maintain Overweight $230.00
2026-04-16 RBC Capital reiterate Sector Perform $207.00
2026-04-16 Citizens reiterate Market Perform
2026-04-16 Wells Fargo maintain Equal-Weight $200.00
2026-04-16 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintain Outperform $218.00
2026-04-16 Goldman Sachs maintain Neutral $205.00
2026-04-16 B of A Securities maintain Buy $225.00
2026-04-07 UBS upgrade Buy $196.00
2026-04-06 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $190.00

No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS revisions are positive: 18 upward revisions vs 1 downward for the current fiscal year, and 18 up vs 1 down for next year. Estimates are being revised higher, supporting the bullish case.

Firm Track Record — UBS

UBS accuracy: 55% on 5084 calls | avg return: 4.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
BMO Capital 100% 3/3 16.6% top tier
Jefferies 100% 3/3 18.4% top tier
RBC Capital 100% 3/3 10.8% top tier
JMP Securities 100% 5/5 18.1% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 86% 6/7 8.9% top tier
Goldman Sachs 86% 6/7 19.8% top tier
Citigroup 83% 5/6 12.4% top tier
Wells Fargo 75% 6/8 17.9% top tier
HSBC 75% 3/4 9% top tier
UBS 75% 3/4 6.1% top tier

UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,084 calls with a 4.6% average return, ranking as top tier among covering firms. Top performers include BMO Capital (100% on 3 calls, 16.6% avg return), Jefferies (100% on 3, 18.4%), and RBC Capital (100% on 3, 10.8%). UBS's accuracy is solid but not elite, and its average return is below the top-tier average.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 14, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $2.76 $2.48 — $3.02 $19.1B ↑2 ↓0
0y $11.84 $11.37 — $12.30 $77.4B ↑2 ↓0
+1y $12.69 $11.34 — $13.59 $81.1B ↑3 ↓0
+1q $2.90 $2.65 — $3.10 $19.2B ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 4 sells
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
NORGES BANK — exit (-100%)
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — doubled (150.3%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,551,654 | Exempt: 2,900 | TRF Vol: 2,480,484 | Short Ratio: 62.6% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider selling is heavy: four executives sold over $5.5M in mid-April, including CFO Daniel Simkowitz ($2.78M) and COO Eric Grossman ($1.06M). This diverges from the bullish analyst signal. Institutional activity shows Norges Bank appearing as a new holder ($2.7B) and exiting, while Two Sigma Investments doubled its position. Short interest is elevated at 62.6% of float, indicating significant bearish positioning. No congressional trades reported.

Actionable Insight

UBS's double upgrade is a high-conviction call from a credible firm, but the target implies downside, and heavy insider selling plus high short interest create a conflicting picture. Traders should treat this as a cautious bullish call with significant headwinds.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

7 reports for MS
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for MS — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 6, 2026
3d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$168.36 $189.21▲ +12.38%▲ +2.60%$212.24 (+26.07%)
Jun 5, 2026
5d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$218.17 awaiting T+20awaiting T+20$212.24 (−2.72%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$162.76 $179.44▲ +10.25%▲ +7.39%$212.24 (+30.40%)
May 7, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$168.36 $189.21▲ +12.38%▲ +2.60%$212.24 (+26.07%)
May 1, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$162.76 $179.44▲ +10.25%▲ +7.39%$212.24 (+30.40%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$186.67 $193.83▲ +3.84%▼ −1.98%$212.24 (+13.70%)
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$186.67 $193.83▲ +3.84%▼ −1.98%$212.24 (+13.70%)
Showing 7 of 7

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