NBIS Nebius Group N.V.

BEARISH Impact: 6/10 Insider Cluster (4 insiders)
Horizon weeks Filed May 22, 2026 Processed 18d 13h ago
Insider cluster: 4 insiders, $104.1M total
Latest settled — T+5d
NBIS ▲ +23.16% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -23.16% · α vs SPY -21.48% · entry $214.77 → $264.51
Next anchor: T+20d in 13d
Last close $218.00 (close Jun 8) · -1.50% from $214.77 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 22, 12:40 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-3.12%
call +3.12% · α +3.71%
$208.06
settled 15d ago
T+5d
+23.16%
call -23.16% · α -21.48%
$264.51
settled 9d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 13d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Four Nebius insiders sold a combined $104.1M in shares over an 8-day window, led by Chief Infrastructure Officer Korolenko Andrey's $101.6M open-market sale. This is highly material relative to the $55.8B market cap (~0.19%), and the cluster includes C-suite executives (CIO, CRO) acting in concert. The selling coincides with recent offering and earnings contexts — cross-filing actuarial data flags this combo as an amplifier. Despite the 77% bullish analyst consensus, the magnitude, seniority, and clustered timing of sales suggest insiders are taking significant chips off the table.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
selling
Total Value
$104.1M
Insiders
4

Actionable Insight

The CIO selling $101.6M in a single trade dwarfs all other insider activity — find out whether this was a 10b5-1 plan or discretionary; if unplanned, it signals acute conviction. Compare the sale price (~$203) to the $217.55 level where CRO sold two days later — the stepped-down pricing could suggest urgency. Given the poor historical track record of model calls on NBIS (T+20 avg alpha -16%), consider pairing this bearish signal with a tight stop or hedging rather than an outright short.

Key Facts

  • Cluster total $104.13M in open-market sales from 4 insiders (May 13–20, 2026)
  • CIO Korolenko alone sold $101.62M (500K shares at ~$203.24)
  • CRO Boroditsky sold $979K (4.5K shares at $217.55) on May 15
  • Director Bunina sold $1.02M and GC Boaz sold $517K
  • Total cluster value represents ~0.19% of $55.8B market cap — proportionally significant
  • Prior 30-day insider activity already included $206.8M in sells
  • 10 of 12 contextual cross-filing combos on record are flagged as actuarial amplifiers
  • Historical model performance on NBIS has been poor (average T+20 alpha -16.3%, win rate 20%)

Financial Impact

$104.13M in aggregate insider open-market sales

insider selling volumemarket confidence

Risk Factors

  • Insider sales may be part of pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans, reducing their informational content
  • Analyst consensus is 77% bullish; strong buy-side sentiment could absorb selling pressure
  • Historical cluster sells carry lower predictive power than cluster buys per academic literature
  • Model's own T+20 alpha on NBIS is deeply negative, suggesting the stock has persistently defied bearish signals

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.
Analyst Consensus
77% bullish (22 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)cluster-NBIS-1779468093630
10 reports for NBIS
Performance horizon
83% Hit rate 5 of 6 directional calls best @ T+1▲ +6.70%May 13, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NBIS — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$232.50 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1$218.00 (−6.24%)
Jun 3, 2026
6d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$251.68 $259.67▲ +3.17%▲ +2.78%$218.00 (−13.38%)
May 22, 2026
18d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$214.77 $208.06▲ +3.12%▲ +3.71%$218.00 (−1.50%)
May 19, 2026
21d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$197.73 $191.82▲ +2.99%▲ +4.03%$218.00 (−10.25%)
May 15, 2026
25d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$199.86 $197.73▼ −1.07%▼ −0.42%$218.00 (+9.08%)
May 13, 2026
27d ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$207.27 $221.15▲ +6.70%▲ +5.92%$218.00 (+5.18%)
Apr 14, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$161.94 $166.77▼ −2.98%▼ −2.21%$218.00 (−34.62%)
Apr 6, 2026
9w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$112.54 $117.40▼ −4.32%▼ −4.26%$218.00 (−93.71%)
Mar 31, 2026
10w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$103.76 $101.95▲ +1.74%▲ +2.49%$218.00 (−110.10%)
Mar 31, 2026
10w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$103.76 $101.95▲ +1.74%▲ +2.49%$218.00 (−110.10%)
Showing 10 of 10

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