NFG NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO

NEUTRAL Impact: 5/10 8-K
Horizon months Filed May 26, 2026 Processed 14d 19h ago SEC 0001193125-26-238061
8-K context-dependent: Items 8.01
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
NFG ▼ -3.63% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -3.63% · α vs SPY -4.72% · entry $79.84 → $76.94
Next anchor: T+20d in 14d
Last close $76.35 (close Jun 8) · -4.37% from $79.84 entry
Entry anchored
May 22, 03:59 PM ET
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T+1d
-1.93%
call -1.93% · α -1.94%
$78.30
settled 14d ago
T+5d
-3.63%
call -3.63% · α -4.72%
$76.94
settled 8d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 14d
T+60d
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Executive Summary

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) filed the audited and unaudited financial statements of Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, LLC (CenterPoint Ohio) and unaudited pro forma combined financials for its pending $2.62 billion acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio. The pro forma statements show the acquisition would be immediately accretive to NFG's earnings per share on a trailing twelve-month basis (pro forma diluted EPS of $4.96 vs. NFG standalone $5.68, reflecting dilution from the $350M private placement and new debt), but accretive on a six-month basis ($4.88 vs. $4.58 standalone). The transaction is expected to close in Q4 2026, pending PUCO approval, and is not subject to a financing condition.

Actionable Insight

The filing provides the first detailed pro forma financials for the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition. The six-month accretion is a positive signal, but the trailing twelve-month dilution and significant debt issuance ($1.5B notes + $1.2B seller note) warrant caution. Monitor PUCO proceedings for conditions that could affect deal economics. The stock's historical underperformance on prior NFG filings (avg -4.88% T+20) suggests the market may already be pricing in execution risk. Watch for any activist or competitive bids given the strategic value of the Ohio LDC assets.

Key Facts

  • NFG agreed to acquire CenterPoint Ohio for $2.62 billion ($1.42B cash + $1.2B seller note) on October 20, 2025.
  • Transaction expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to PUCO approval; will not close before October 1, 2026 without seller consent.
  • NFG completed a $350M private placement of 4,402,513 shares at $79.50/share on December 17, 2025.
  • NFG expects to issue $1.5B in senior unsecured notes at ~5.04% and borrow $283M under commercial paper to fund the acquisition and repay existing debt.
  • Pro forma diluted EPS for the six months ended March 31, 2026: $4.88 (standalone NFG: $4.58), indicating accretion.
  • Pro forma diluted EPS for the year ended September 30, 2025: $4.96 (standalone NFG: $5.68), indicating dilution on a trailing basis.
  • CenterPoint Ohio reported net income of $68M on $268M revenue for FY2025, and $25M on $97M revenue for Q1 2026.
  • CenterPoint Ohio serves ~337,000 metered customers with ~6,000 miles of pipeline in Ohio.
  • PUCO staff filed comments on May 4, 2026 recommending conditions on the transaction; case is pending.
  • The acquisition is expected to generate ~$774M in goodwill.

Financial Impact

Total enterprise value of $2.62 billion for CenterPoint Ohio, representing approximately 34% of NFG's $7.7B market cap. Pro forma net income accretion of ~$0.30/share on a six-month basis, but dilution of ~$0.72/share on a trailing twelve-month basis due to financing costs.

revenueepsdebtdilutiongoodwill

Risk Factors

  • PUCO may impose conditions that reduce expected synergies or returns.
  • Significant debt load (~$2.7B in new debt) increases financial leverage and interest expense.
  • Integration risks with CenterPoint Ohio's operations and regulatory framework.
  • Pro forma EPS dilution on a trailing twelve-month basis could pressure the stock near-term.
  • Regulatory or political headwinds in Ohio regarding natural gas utility rates and infrastructure investment.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Natural Gas Distribution
Analyst Consensus
67% bullish (9 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-238061
Document: d90390dex991.htm0001193125-26-238061
Document: d90390dex992.htm0001193125-26-238061
Document: d90390d8k.htm0001193125-26-238061
Document: d90390dex231.htm0001193125-26-238061
Document: 0001193125-26-238061-index-headers.html0001193125-26-238061
Document: 0001193125-26-238061-index.html0001193125-26-238061
Document: 0001193125-26-238061.txt0001193125-26-238061
9 reports for NFG
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +7.42%Apr 29, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NFG — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 27, 2026
13d ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$78.12 $77.31▼ −1.04%▼ −1.35%$76.35 (−2.27%)
May 27, 2026
13d ago
424B5
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$78.30 $76.44▼ −2.38%▼ −3.58%$76.35 (−2.49%)
May 26, 2026
14d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$79.84 $76.94▼ −3.63%▼ −4.72%$76.35 (−4.37%)
Apr 30, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$87.23 $86.93▼ −0.35%▼ −1.42%$76.35 (−12.48%)
Apr 30, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$84.38 $81.51▲ +3.40%▲ +5.13%$76.35 (+9.52%)
Apr 29, 2026
5w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 5/10
$84.38 $80.22▼ −4.93%▼ −6.66%$76.35 (−9.52%)
Apr 29, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$84.38 $81.51▲ +3.40%▲ +5.13%$76.35 (+9.52%)
Apr 9, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$95.03 $89.15▼ −6.19%▼ −9.37%$76.35 (−19.66%)
Mar 12, 2026
12w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$93.21 $92.94▼ −0.29%▲ +0.69%$76.35 (−18.09%)
Showing 9 of 9

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