NFG NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO
Price Chart
Executive Summary
BofA Securities upgraded National Fuel Gas (NFG) from Underperform to Buy on July 15, 2025, raising its price target to $107 from $85, a 26% increase. This upgrade is part of a cluster of three recent analyst actions: Keybanc initiated with Overweight and Scotiabank downgraded to Sector Perform. The consensus on NFG is mixed with 5 Buy ratings (including 3 Strong Buys) and 3 Holds, but no Sell ratings. The mean price target is $103, implying 17% upside from the current $88.07. BofA's track record on NFG is poor (0% accuracy on 4 calls), but its average return on all rated stocks is 5.1% (54% accuracy on 3,282 calls). The upgrade is contrarian to BofA's prior bearish stance and comes as EPS estimates for the current quarter have been revised up 3 times in 30 days. Institutional activity shows strong buying from FMR LLC (+462.9%) and Norges Bank (new position), while short interest is elevated at 77% of off-exchange volume. The upgrade is a significant bullish signal from a previously bearish firm, but its low accuracy on NFG warrants caution.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is mixed but leans bullish: 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (8 analysts total). The majority (62.5%) are Buy-rated, but the 3 Holds indicate some caution. BofA's upgrade shifts the balance further toward bullish, but Scotiabank's downgrade to Sector Perform tempers the cluster's overall direction.
Mean PT is $103, median $102, high $110, low $97. Current price $88.07 implies 17% upside to mean. BofA's new PT of $107 is above the mean and median, ranking as the second-highest target after the high of $110. This is a bullish outlier relative to consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Keybanc | initiate | Overweight | — |
| 2025-10-09 | Scotiabank | downgrade | Sector Perform | $106.00 |
| 2025-08-13 | Scotiabank | maintain | Sector Outperform | $102.00 |
| 2025-07-15 | B of A Securities | upgrade | Buy | $107.00 |
| 2025-07-11 | Scotiabank | maintain | Sector Outperform | $98.00 |
| 2025-05-23 | B of A Securities | maintain | Underperform | $85.00 |
| 2025-04-29 | B of A Securities | maintain | Underperform | $77.00 |
| 2025-03-13 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $81.00 |
| 2025-01-13 | B of A Securities | maintain | Underperform | $64.00 |
| 2024-11-12 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $64.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (BofA), 0 downgrades. EPS revision trend is mixed: current quarter (0q) has 3 revisions up vs 1 down in 30 days, but next quarter (+1q) has 1 up vs 2 down. Full-year 0y has 1 up vs 3 down. Near-term estimates are being revised higher, but longer-term estimates are being trimmed.
Firm Track Record — B of A Securities
B of A Securities accuracy: 54% on 3282 calls | avg return: 5.1%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 3 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | 100% | 3/3 | 11.8% | top tier |
| Scotiabank | 86% | 6/7 | 1.5% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 0% | 0/4 | 9.7% | below average |
BofA Securities has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,282 total calls with an average return of 5.1%. However, on NFG specifically, BofA has 0% accuracy (0 correct out of 4 calls), making this a low-confidence call for this ticker. Among covering firms, JP Morgan has 100% accuracy (3/3) and Scotiabank 86% (6/7), both top-tier. BofA is below average on NFG.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $2.84 | $2.81 — $2.87 | $856.6M | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.05 | $6.97 — $9.03 | $3.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.57 | $1.48 — $1.65 | $582.6M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $7.77 | $7.63 — $7.91 | $2.8B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: none reported. Congressional trades: none. Institutional activity shows strong bullish convergence: FMR LLC doubled its position (+462.9%), Norges Bank initiated a new $92M position, and Bank of America Corp added 37%. However, Renaissance Technologies nearly exited (-85.9%) and Two Sigma trimmed (-57.2%). Short interest is elevated at 77% of off-exchange volume, suggesting heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze if the stock rallies. The institutional buying and high short interest converge with the bullish analyst signal.
Actionable Insight
BofA's upgrade is a bold contrarian call from a previously bearish firm, but its poor track record on NFG limits conviction. The cluster of actions and strong institutional buying support the bullish thesis, but the high short interest and mixed EPS revisions warrant caution. Traders should watch for a short squeeze catalyst, but avoid overcommitting given BofA's 0% accuracy on this name.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 27, 2026
13d ago
|
8-K
| $78.12 $77.31 | ▼ −1.04% | ▼ −1.35% | $76.35 (−2.27%) |
|
May 27, 2026
13d ago
|
424B5
| $78.30 $76.44 | ▼ −2.38% | ▼ −3.58% | $76.35 (−2.49%) |
|
May 26, 2026
14d ago
|
8-K
| $79.84 $76.94 | ▼ −3.63% | ▼ −4.72% | $76.35 (−4.37%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $87.23 $86.93 | ▼ −0.35% | ▼ −1.42% | $76.35 (−12.48%) |
|
Apr 30, 2026
5w ago
|
8-K
| $84.38 $81.51 | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.13% | $76.35 (+9.52%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
5w ago
|
8-K
| $84.38 $80.22 | ▼ −4.93% | ▼ −6.66% | $76.35 (−9.52%) |
|
Apr 29, 2026
5w ago
|
Press Release
| $84.38 $81.51 | ▲ +3.40% | ▲ +5.13% | $76.35 (+9.52%) |
|
Apr 9, 2026
8w ago
|
Press Release
| $95.03 $89.15 | ▼ −6.19% | ▼ −9.37% | $76.35 (−19.66%) |
|
Mar 12, 2026
12w ago
|
Press Release
| $93.21 $92.94 | ▼ −0.29% | ▲ +0.69% | $76.35 (−18.09%) |
US Market Status
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