NFLX NETFLIX INC

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Executive Summary

CFRA upgraded Netflix (NFLX) from Hold to Buy with a $115 price target on March 6, 2026, part of a 24-firm analyst cluster. CFRA's accuracy is 64% on 14 calls with an average return of 0.1%, below the many 100%-accurate top-tier firms covering the stock. Consensus is heavily bullish at 76% Buy (45 of 59 analysts) with a mean target of $114.66, implying 22.5% upside from the current $93.61. The $115 target matches the consensus median. Near-term EPS estimates have been revised down 23 times in 30 days for the current quarter, but next-quarter revisions are up 21 times. Insider selling is significant — co-founder Reed Hastings sold $14.4M on April 1 — while institutional flows are massive: Vanguard, FMR, Morgan Stanley, and others doubled positions. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of off-exchange volume. The upgrade is consensus-aligned and adds limited new information, but the cluster of 24 firms acting reinforces the bullish narrative. Next earnings are July 15, 2026, offering a near-term catalyst.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 59 analysts covering Netflix, 45 rate it Buy (16 Strong Buy, 29 Buy), 14 Hold, and 0 Sell — a 76% bullish consensus. The overwhelming majority supports the bull case, with only a handful of neutral holds and no sells. CFRA's upgrade brings it in line with the street's dominant view.

Current price: $93.61. Mean target: $114.66, median: $115, high: $151.40, low: $80.00. Implied upside to the mean is 22.5%. CFRA's $115 target sits exactly at the median, reflecting a neutral stance within the bullish consensus. 44 analysts contributed to the price target consensus.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (CFRA) and 0 downgrades on NFLX. EPS revisions show a mixed picture: current-quarter estimates have been revised down 23 times versus 4 up in 30 days, but next-quarter estimates are up 21 times versus 7 down. Full-year (+1y) revisions are nearly balanced (20 up, 17 down). Analysts are looking past near-term weakness toward future strength.

Firm Track Record — CFRA

CFRA accuracy: 64% on 14 calls | avg return: 0.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

CFRA has a 64% accuracy rate on 14 scored calls with an average return of 0.1%, placing it below many top-tier firms like Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, and Evercore ISI, all of which have 100% accuracy on smaller samples. CFRA's performance is moderate; its upgrade here carries less weight than if issued by a higher-accuracy firm.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 15, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades are heavily bearish: co-founder Reed Hastings sold $14.4M and other executives sold $2.8M+ in recent weeks. Congress shows buying from Reps. Byron Donalds and Michael McCaul. Institutional holdings surged — Vanguard increased 912.5%, FMR 827.9%, Morgan Stanley 903%, all doubling positions. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of off-exchange volume, indicating significant bearish hedging. This creates a divergence: insiders selling vs. institutions buying. The analyst upgrade aligns with the institutional buy side, but the insider selling and high short interest warrant caution.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status