NKE NIKE, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Piper Sandler double downgraded NIKE (NKE) from Overweight to Neutral on April 10, cutting the price target to $50 from $60. The stock trades at $43.23, implying 15.7% upside to the new target. Piper Sandler has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,763 calls with an average return of 3.6%, putting it above most peers covering NKE. Consensus is mixed: 49% Buy, 47% Hold, 4% Sell across 45 analysts. The mean target is $60.49, median $55, with a wide range from $23 to $120. The downgrade is part of a wave of negative revisions—Wells Fargo, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan all cut ratings in the same window. However, a strong bullish counter-signal has emerged: five insider buys totaling over $3.7 million in early April, including from Hill Elliott and Timothy Cook, directly opposing the bearish analyst sentiment. Short interest is elevated at 58.4% of float, setting up a potential squeeze. Despite the analyst negativity, insider conviction and extreme shorting argue for a contrarian long bias.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Among 45 analysts covering NKE, 10 rate Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 21 Hold, 2 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. That is 49% Buy-equivalent, 47% Hold, and 4% Sell. The consensus is tilted positive but heavily split, with the Hold camp growing as downgrades accumulate. Piper Sandler's Neutral aligns with the median view.

The current price is $43.23. The mean analyst target is $60.49, median $55, high $120, low $23. The implied upside to the mean is 39.9%. Piper Sandler's $50 target is 17% below the mean and 9% below the median, placing it in the lower quartile of the consensus range. The target spread from $23 to $120 reflects extreme divergence of opinion.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 new downgrades (though the recent actions list shows multiple downgrades in April/May—these are outside the 30-day window per the data). EPS revisions are sharply negative: for the current quarter, 0 revisions up vs 18 down in 30 days; for the current fiscal year, 8 up vs 23 down; for next year, 1 up vs 31 down. Estimates are being revised lower across all horizons.

Firm Track Record — Piper Sandler

Piper Sandler accuracy: 54% on 3763 calls | avg return: 3.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Piper Sandler has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,763 calls with an average return of 3.6%, ranking above the median among firms covering NKE. The best-performing firm is Wedbush (67% on 3 calls, avg return 0.2%, small sample), followed by TD Cowen (60% on 5 calls, avg 2.5%). The worst performers are Telsey Advisory Group (22% on 18 calls, avg -6.0%) and B of A Securities (22% on 9 calls, avg -0.8%). Piper's accuracy is moderate; its downgrade track record is average but gains weight from being part of a cluster.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jun 24, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider activity is the most powerful cross-signal: five insider buys totaling over $3.7 million occurred between April 7–13, including two buys from Hill Elliott (likely President or CEO) for ~$1M each, a $1.06M purchase by Timothy Cook, a $500k buy by Robert Holmes Swan, and a $173k buy by John W. Rogers Jr. These are clustered buys directly contradicting the analyst downgrades. Per the insider-trade literature, such clustered insider buying is strongly predictive of positive abnormal returns. Meanwhile, institutional activity shows Bank of America trimming by 45.5% and two funds exiting (Renaissance Technologies, Fund 1 Investments), but Norges Bank opened an $830M position. Short interest is extreme—58.4% ratio—indicating heavy bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze. The convergence of insider buying into a sea of analyst downgrades is a rare and high-conviction bullish signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status