OESX Orion Energy Systems, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Orion Energy Systems pre-announced FY2026 revenue of ~$86M and adjusted EBITDA ≥$2M, with FY2027 guidance of $95-97M revenue. The implied Q3 EPS miss (actual $0.04 vs consensus $0.26, -84.6%) is a severe miss, though the press release focuses on improving backlog ($30M) and six consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA. The stock's microcap status ($37M market cap) amplifies volatility, and historical calibration shows past bullish calls on OESX have underperformed significantly.
Key Financial Metrics
Actionable Insight
The 84.6% EPS miss signals near-term earnings pressure, but the FY2027 revenue guidance of $95-97M and $30M backlog provide a forward narrative. With a $37M market cap and only 1 analyst covering, any surprise moves sharply. Watch for the full FY2026 Q4 and annual report on June 4 — if the backlog converts to orders above the implied guidance, bearish pressure could reverse. Until then, the miss dominates.
Key Facts
- Preliminary FY2026 (year ended March 31, 2026) revenue expected ~$86M with adjusted EBITDA ≥$2M
- FY2027 (year ending March 31, 2027) revenue guidance $95M-$97M, positive adjusted EBITDA reiterated
- Q3 2026 (Dec 2025 quarter) GAAP EPS $0.04 vs consensus $0.26 — an 84.6% miss
- Backlog of $30M as of March 31, 2026, cited as evidence of growth trajectory
- Company cited six consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, cost improvements, and enterprise customer expansion
- No GAAP reconciliation provided for forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance
Financial Impact
Q3 EPS actual $0.04 vs consensus $0.26 — a $0.22 miss per share. FY2026 revenue ~$86M guides FY2027 to $95-97M, implying ~11-13% YoY growth. Adjusted EBITDA ≥$2M on $86M revenue is a thin ~2.3% margin.
Risk Factors
- Q3 EPS miss of 84.6% suggests deteriorating profitability in the most recent reported quarter
- Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~2.3% on $86M revenue leaves no room for error; any cost overhang or revenue shortfall could flip it negative
- Microcap stock with thin liquidity and only 1 analyst covering — price moves on low volume can be exaggerated
- Historical bull calls on OESX have averaged -5.6% T+20 returns, suggesting market has been skeptical of similar narratives
- FY2027 guidance assumes backlog conversion and enterprise customer growth materialize at or above current run rate
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3297311 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
8-K
| $9.16 $9.52 | ▲ +3.93% | ▲ +6.53% | $9.35 (+2.07%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
Press Release
| $9.16 $9.52 | ▲ +3.93% | ▲ +6.53% | $9.35 (+2.07%) |
|
May 19, 2026
26d ago
|
8-K
| $8.78 $8.87 | ▲ +1.03% | ▼ −0.01% | $9.35 (+6.49%) |
|
May 19, 2026
26d ago
|
Press Release
| $8.78 $8.87 | ▼ −1.03% | ▲ +0.01% | $9.35 (−6.49%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
8w ago
|
8-K
| $9.55 $9.38 | ▼ −1.78% | ▼ −1.59% | $9.35 (−2.09%) |
|
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
|
Press Release
| $10.01 $9.59 | ▼ −4.20% | ▼ −4.45% | $9.35 (−6.59%) |
|
Mar 24, 2026
11w ago
|
Press Release
| $10.04 $9.90 | ▼ −1.39% | ▼ −1.96% | $9.35 (−6.87%) |
|
Mar 17, 2026
12w ago
|
EFFECT
| $9.77 $9.67 | ▼ −1.02% | ▲ +0.37% | $9.35 (−4.30%) |
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Mar 6, 2026
14w ago
|
S-3
| $10.20 $10.33 | ▲ +1.27% | ▲ +1.46% | $9.35 (−8.33%) |
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Mar 3, 2026
14w ago
|
Press Release
| $10.82 $11.38 | ▲ +5.18% | ▲ +4.41% | $9.35 (−13.59%) |
US Market Status
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