PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/

NEUTRAL Impact: 5/10 8-K
Horizon days Filed May 20, 2026 Processed 25d 19h ago SEC 0000080661-26-000204
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
PGR ▼ -3.97% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -3.97% · α vs SPY -5.78% · entry $202.55 → $194.50
Next anchor: T+20d in 3d
Last close $203.11 (close Jun 12) · +0.28% from $202.55 entry
Entry anchored
May 20, 2026
via day open
T+1d
-1.78%
call -1.78% · α -1.98%
$198.94
settled 25d ago
T+5d
-3.97%
call -3.97% · α -5.78%
$194.50
settled 18d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 3d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

Progressive reported April 2026 monthly results: net premiums earned grew 7% YoY to $7.1B, net income rose 10% to $1.09B, and diluted EPS increased 11% to $1.86. However, the combined ratio deteriorated 5.3 points to 90.2%, driven by elevated catastrophe losses (7.0% net catastrophe loss ratio vs. prior year). The company provided no additional commentary and no forward guidance.

Actionable Insight

Monitor the combined ratio trajectory in upcoming monthly releases; if catastrophe losses persist above historical norms, underwriting margin compression could pressure earnings. May results expected June 17, 2026.

Key Facts

  • Net premiums earned: $7.1B in April 2026, up 7% YoY from $6.6B
  • Net income: $1.09B in April 2026, up 10% YoY from $986M
  • Diluted EPS: $1.86 in April 2026, up 11% YoY from $1.68
  • Combined ratio: 90.2% in April 2026, deteriorating 5.3 points from 84.9% in April 2025
  • Net catastrophe loss ratio: 7.0% in April 2026, primarily from hail and thunderstorm events
  • Total policies in force: 39.8M as of April 30, 2026, up 8% YoY
  • Total revenues: $7.98B in April 2026, up from $7.0B in April 2025
  • Total net realized gains on securities: $402M in April 2026 vs. ($3M) loss in April 2025
  • Book value per share: $56.29 as of April 30, 2026
  • Trailing 12-month ROE (net income): 35.1%

Financial Impact

Monthly earnings release with 7% premium growth and 10% net income growth, but combined ratio deterioration of 5.3 points to 90.2% due to catastrophe losses. No guidance provided.

revenueepsunderwriting margin

Risk Factors

  • Elevated catastrophe losses (7.0% net catastrophe loss ratio) driving combined ratio deterioration
  • Property segment combined ratio of 101.3% indicates underwriting losses in that line
  • No forward guidance provided limits visibility into near-term earnings trajectory

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance
Analyst Consensus
42% bullish (31 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0000080661-26-000204
Document: pgr-20260520.htm0000080661-26-000204
Document: 0000080661-26-000204-index-headers.html0000080661-26-000204
Document: 0000080661-26-000204-index.html0000080661-26-000204
Document: 0000080661-26-000204.txt0000080661-26-000204
14 reports for PGR
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 3 of 4 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +8.42%Mar 5, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PGR — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 8, 2026
6d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$201.49 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$203.11 (+0.80%)
May 20, 2026
25d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$202.55 $194.50▼ −3.97%▼ −5.78%$203.11 (+0.28%)
May 20, 2026
25d ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 5/10
$202.55 $194.50▼ −3.97%▼ −5.78%$203.11 (+0.28%)
May 18, 2026
28d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$203.69 $198.73▼ −2.44%▼ −4.05%$203.11 (−0.28%)
May 13, 2026
4w ago
Court Ruling
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$195.94 $202.55▼ −3.37%▼ −3.51%$203.11 (−3.66%)
May 12, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$198.38 $204.00▲ +2.83%▲ +2.76%$203.11 (+2.39%)
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$201.25 $202.55▲ +0.65%▼ −0.99%$203.11 (+0.93%)
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$201.25 $202.55▼ −0.65%▲ +0.99%$203.11 (−0.93%)
Mar 24, 2026
11w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$206.13 $198.18▼ −3.86%▼ −3.43%$203.11 (−1.46%)
Mar 23, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$205.11 $201.38▼ −1.82%▲ +1.74%$203.11 (−0.97%)
Showing 10 of 14

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 5h 6m

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access