QCOM QUALCOMM INC/DE

Price Chart

Executive Summary

BNP Paribas double-downgraded T from Outperform to Neutral on April 17, slashing its price target 33% from $180 to $120 — a 40% implied downside from the current $201.49. The call is sharply contrarian: consensus is 58% Buy/Strong Buy (18 of 48 analysts), with a mean target of $176 (+13% downside). BNP's track record is weak — 33% accuracy on just 3 calls — and its average return of +2.9% is middling. EPS revisions have been overwhelmingly negative: 24 downgrades vs 1 upgrade in the last 30 days for the current quarter, and 26 vs 2 for the fiscal year. Insider selling is heavy: CEO Cristiano Amon sold $3.65M on May 4-5, and other C-suite members sold $614K. Short interest is elevated at 58.7% of TRF volume. The next earnings date is July 28, 2026 — 102 days away, so no near-term catalyst. The downgrade is contrarian but from a low-accuracy firm, and the massive insider selling aligns with the bearish view. Bottom line: BNP's call is an outlier with weak credibility, but the EPS revision trend and insider sales are genuine headwinds. Traders should treat this as a cautionary signal, not a trigger to short.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 48 analysts covering T: 5 Strong Buy, 13 Buy (total 58% bullish), 26 Hold (54%), 4 Sell (8%), 0 Strong Sell. Consensus is heavily skewed to the buy side, making BNP's downgrade a clear outlier. The mean target of $176 implies 13% downside from $201.49.

Current price: $201.49. Mean target: $175.97 (13% downside). Median: $160 (21% downside). High: $300 (49% upside). Low: $100 (50% downside). BNP's $120 target is 32% below the mean and 25% below the low — the most bearish on the street. The range is wide, reflecting deep disagreement.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Daiwa Capital, Neutral to Outperform, PT $225), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are heavily negative: current quarter saw 24 downgrades vs 1 upgrade in 30 days; fiscal year saw 26 vs 2. Estimates are being revised sharply lower — the current quarter EPS estimate fell 8.8% from $2.44 to $2.23 in 30 days.

Firm Track Record — BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas accuracy: 33% on 3 calls | avg return: 2.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

BNP Paribas has a 33% accuracy rate on 3 calls with an average return of +2.9%. This is below average vs peers. Top-tier firms on T include HSBC (100% on 2 calls, avg return -4.6%), WestPark Capital (100% on 2, +1.1%), and Loop Capital (100% on 2, +6.5%). Worst: Barclays (33% on 3, -8.8%) and Baird (33% on 3, -4.8%). BNP's call carries low credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 28, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is heavy and concentrated in C-suite: CEO Cristiano Amon sold $3.65M on May 4-5, CFO Akash Palkhiwala sold $12K on May 12, and other executives sold $602K. This aligns with the bearish analyst signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank exited a $2.6B position, Renaissance Technologies exited, and Two Sigma cut 88.9%. But Cullen Capital added 29.7% ($148M). Short interest is elevated at 58.7% of TRF volume. Congressional activity: Rep. Jared Moskowitz sold $15K-$50K on March 31 — a minor signal. The insider selling and institutional exits converge with the bearish view, but the magnitude of the BNP downgrade is extreme.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status