RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

NEUTRAL Impact: 4/10 Institutional Cluster
Horizon weeks Processed 9d 19h ago
Institutional cluster: 5 buyers, 3 sellers (mixed)
Latest settled — T+5d
RARE ▲ +12.22% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +12.22% · α vs SPY +11.78% · entry $23.98 → $26.91
Next anchor: T+20d in 19d
Entry anchored
Jun 10, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.54%
call +1.54% · α +1.00%
$24.35
settled 9d ago
T+5d
+12.22%
call +12.22% · α +11.78%
$26.91
settled 3d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 19d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 3mo

Executive Summary

A mixed institutional cluster in Ultragenyx (RARE) for Q3 2025 shows $368.2M in aggregate buying by 5 institutions (led by Fidelity doubling its stake to $219.1M) against $55.2M in selling by 3 institutions (led by Norges Bank's full exit of $35.8M). The buying is dominated by mega-passive managers (State Street, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo) and one quant (Citadel), while the selling includes two quants (D.E. Shaw, RenTech) and a sovereign fund — suggesting passive rebalancing/accumulation rather than a strong active conviction thesis.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
mixed
Buy Value
$368.2M
Sell Value
$55.2M
Net Flow
$99.6M

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: $99.6M

▲ Buyers (5)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Fidelity DOUBLED +179.6% $219.1M $124.4M
State Street ADD +43.6% $111.1M $17.5M
Morgan Stanley ADD +42.5% $27.4M $4.1M
Citadel DOUBLED +779.6% $10.0M $8.6M
Wells Fargo ADD +43.1% $750.0K $116.0K

▼ Sellers (3)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
Norges Bank EXIT -100% $35.8M -$35.8M
D.E. Shaw TRIM -56.1% $19.7M -$12.5M
RenTech NEAR_EXIT -89.5% $7.6M -$6.9M

Actionable Insight

The cluster is dominated by mega-passive managers (Fidelity, State Street, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo) whose moves likely reflect index rebalancing or passive fund flows rather than a shared active catalyst. The active signals are mixed: Citadel's large addition (+780%) is notable but small in absolute dollars ($8.6M), while D.E. Shaw and RenTech both trimmed meaningfully. Monitor for a subsequent 13F filing or a company catalyst (e.g., pipeline update) that could explain the divergence. The 88% win rate on prior RARE reports suggests the stock has been responsive to signals, but this cluster lacks a clear active thesis.

Key Facts

  • 5 buyers accumulated $154.8M net, led by Fidelity (DOUBLED to $219.1M) and State Street (ADD to $111.1M)
  • 3 sellers reduced $55.2M, led by Norges Bank (full EXIT of $35.8M), D.E. Shaw (TRIM -56.1%), and RenTech (NEAR_EXIT -89.5%)
  • Citadel (quant) DOUBLED its position by +779.6% to $10.0M, a notable active addition
  • All 5 buyers are mega-passive or quant; no activist or concentrated active value funds participated
  • The cluster is dominated by passive/index rebalancing, weakening the signal of a shared active thesis

Financial Impact

5 institutions accumulated $368.2M in current holdings (net change +$154.8M) while 3 institutions reduced holdings by $55.2M

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been unwound since quarter-end
  • Passive-dominated buying provides no fundamental catalyst read-through
  • Two quants (D.E. Shaw, RenTech) and a sovereign fund sold, indicating possible risk-off or thesis abandonment

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
88% bullish (25 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-RARE-2025-Q3
7 reports for RARE
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +16.16%Mar 2, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for RARE — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 15, 2026
5d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$24.85 $26.91▲ +8.29%▲ +9.54%
Jun 11, 2026
9d ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$23.98 $24.35▲ +1.54%▲ +1.00%
May 5, 2026
6w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$25.93 $25.93· 0.00%▼ −0.33%
May 1, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$24.77 $24.81▲ +0.16%▲ +0.50%
Apr 2, 2026
11w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$22.45 $22.87▲ +1.87%▲ +1.40%
Mar 27, 2026
12w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$19.30 $20.95▲ +8.55%▲ +5.66%
Mar 2, 2026
15w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$23.02 $22.07▲ +4.13%▲ +3.21%
Showing 7 of 7

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (29h 30m)

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