SAIL SailPoint, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Morgan Stanley upgraded SAIL from Equal-Weight to Overweight on September 2, 2025, setting a $25 price target — more than double the current $11.95 price. This is part of a massive 20-firm analyst cluster, with 10 firms reiterating or maintaining bullish stances as recently as March 2026. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 25 of 29 analysts rate Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean target of $18.98 (+59% upside). Morgan Stanley's $25 target sits above the $18.98 mean and $18 median, near the $27.50 high. The firm's track record on SAIL is weak — 33% accuracy on 3 calls — but its broader 55% accuracy on 4,993 calls suggests general competence. Momentum is mixed: EPS revisions for the current quarter show 9 downgrades in 30 days, but next quarter has 7 upgrades and 0 downgrades. Insider selling is heavy — five executives sold over $2M in April 2026 — and FMR LLC nearly exited two positions, while Norges Bank took a new $235M stake. Short interest is elevated at 57.5% of float. The upgrade is a contrarian bullish call from a mid-accuracy firm, but the insider selling and short interest create a divergence that traders must weigh.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 25 of 29 analysts (86%) are bullish. Only 3 hold and 1 sell, indicating broad support for the stock.

Current price: $11.95. Mean target: $18.98 (+59% upside). Median: $18. High: $27.50, Low: $14. Morgan Stanley's $25 target is 32% above the mean and 39% above the median, placing it in the top quartile of estimates. Implied upside to Morgan Stanley's target is 109%.

Recent Analyst Activity

30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — no recent changes. EPS revisions: current quarter saw 9 downgrades in 30 days (EPS fell from $0.0449 to $0.04466), but next quarter has 7 upgrades and 0 downgrades (EPS stable at $0.07688). Full-year estimates show 4 upgrades vs 7 downgrades in 30 days, with EPS slightly down from $0.3967 to $0.38652. Mixed but improving near-term outlook.

Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 10 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Morgan Stanley has a 55% accuracy rate on 4,993 calls overall, with an average return of 4.3%. On SAIL specifically, it's 33% (1 of 3 correct). Among covering firms, Jefferies leads with 50% accuracy (1 of 2) and 7.7% avg return, while Mizuho is worst at 17% (1 of 6) with -7.7% avg return. Morgan Stanley's SAIL-specific record is below average, but its broader track record is solid.

Earnings Estimates

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider selling is a major red flag: five executives sold over $2M in April 2026, including McClain Mark D. ($1.01M). Institutional activity is mixed: FMR LLC nearly exited two positions (-93.1% and -85.9%), but Norges Bank took a new $235M stake and Morgan Stanley itself added 32% to its position ($7.4M). Short interest is 57.5% of float — extremely high, indicating heavy bearish positioning. No congressional trades. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and high short interest, creating a contrarian setup.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status