SBUX STARBUCKS CORP
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Jefferies double-upgraded SBUX from Underperform to Hold on April 13, 2026, raising its price target from $86 to $92, though the new target sits 10.1% below the current $102.28. The call is a two-notch reversal from the firm's prior bearish stance, but still lags the consensus mean of $106.25. Jefferies is a top-tier firm for SBUX with 80% accuracy on 5 calls, but its average return of -2.6% trails peers. Consensus remains Buy-skewed at 49% Buy, 40% Hold, 11% Sell from 47 analysts, with a median target of $110. The upgrade aligns with a 30-day EPS revision trend that is positive (15 up, 1 down for the current fiscal year). However, recent insider sales by the CEO total over $800K, diverging from the analyst signal, and the short interest ratio stands at 65.6% of float. Bottom line: the upgrade removes a key bearish outlier but offers no upside catalyst—traders should view this as a cautious neutral signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Among 47 analysts covering SBUX, 23 rate it Buy (49%), 19 Hold (40%), and 5 Sell (11%). The consensus is Buy-skewed but with a sizable hold camp. Jefferies' Hold call is now aligned with the neutral portion of the consensus, a step up from its previous outlier bearish view.
The consensus mean price target is $106.25, median $110, high $137, and low $81. Current price $102.28 implies +3.9% upside to the mean. Jefferies' $92 target is the 4th lowest among analysts, sitting 13.4% below the mean and 16.4% below the median.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | TD Cowen | upgrade | Buy | $120.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $117.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $105.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $101.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | BNP Paribas | maintain | Underperform | $87.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $110.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Guggenheim | maintain | Neutral | $97.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $115.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $115.00 |
| 2026-04-29 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $102.00 |
In the 30 days leading to this trigger, there was 1 upgrade (this Jefferies call) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are trending positive: the current fiscal year saw 15 upward revisions and just 1 downward in the last 30 days, and the next quarter had 2 up and 1 down over the same period. Estimates are being revised higher overall.
Firm Track Record — Jefferies
Jefferies accuracy: 53% on 2282 calls | avg return: 3.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | 100% | 4/4 | 9.1% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 80% | 4/5 | -2.6% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 75% | 3/4 | 2.6% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 75% | 6/8 | 6.9% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 74% | 14/19 | 6.6% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 69% | 9/13 | 5% | top tier |
| Stifel | 67% | 6/9 | 0.1% | top tier |
| UBS | 67% | 4/6 | -0.5% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 60% | 3/5 | 3.6% | above average |
| BMO Capital | 60% | 3/5 | 4.2% | above average |
Jefferies has an 80% accuracy rate on 5 SBUX calls, classifying it as a top-tier firm. However, its average return on those calls is -2.6%, the worst among top-tier firms. The best-rated firm for SBUX is BTIG (100% on 4 calls, +9.1% avg return), while the worst is Evercore ISI Group (50% on 4 calls, +7% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $0.68 | $0.61 — $0.74 | $9.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $3.01 | $2.73 — $3.25 | $38.3B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.65 | $0.54 — $0.72 | $9.1B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.38 | $2.26 — $2.46 | $37.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity shows a clear bearish divergence: CEO Brady Brewer sold over $590K in three transactions since early April, and another insider (Sara Kelly) sold $210K. No insider buys were recorded. A congressional sell (Jim Banks, $1K-$15K) is negligible. Institutional moves are mixed—Vestmark added 54% and Mediolanum doubled their stake, while Wolverine, Haverford, and Brevan Howard trimmed. Short interest is elevated at 65.6% of float. The insider selling opposes the upgrade signal, reducing the impact of the analyst move.
Actionable Insight
Jefferies' double upgrade is a positive shift that reduces bearish risk, but the still-below-market target and ongoing insider selling argue against aggressive bullish conviction. Neutral-to-slightly-bearish positioning is warranted; wait for a catalyst or insider buying to turn constructive.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 14, 2026
today
|
Institutional Cluster
| — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
|
Jun 13, 2026
1d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $105.80 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $103.04 (−2.61%) |
|
Jun 12, 2026
2d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $96.59 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $103.04 (+6.68%) |
|
Jun 12, 2026
2d ago
|
8-K
| $103.04 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $103.04 (+0.00%) |
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $101.01 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $103.04 (+2.01%) |
|
May 31, 2026
14d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $97.60 $91.69 | ▼ −6.06% | ▼ −6.44% | $103.04 (+5.58%) |
|
May 26, 2026
20d ago
|
Court Ruling
| $101.35 $96.51 | ▼ −4.77% | ▼ −5.86% | $103.04 (+1.67%) |
|
May 20, 2026
25d ago
|
8-K
| $104.11 $99.12 | ▼ −4.79% | ▼ −6.64% | $103.04 (−1.02%) |
|
May 15, 2026
4w ago
|
8-K
| $106.76 $103.10 | ▲ +3.43% | ▲ +4.39% | $103.04 (+3.48%) |
|
May 14, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $106.38 $104.11 | ▼ −2.13% | ▼ −1.42% | $103.04 (−3.14%) |
US Market Status
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