SBUX STARBUCKS CORP

NEUTRAL Impact: 2/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 2d 11h ago SEC analyst-SBUX-jefferie-20260413
Jefferies double upgrade: Underperform → Hold

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Executive Summary

Jefferies double-upgraded SBUX from Underperform to Hold on April 13, 2026, raising its price target from $86 to $92, though the new target sits 10.1% below the current $102.28. The call is a two-notch reversal from the firm's prior bearish stance, but still lags the consensus mean of $106.25. Jefferies is a top-tier firm for SBUX with 80% accuracy on 5 calls, but its average return of -2.6% trails peers. Consensus remains Buy-skewed at 49% Buy, 40% Hold, 11% Sell from 47 analysts, with a median target of $110. The upgrade aligns with a 30-day EPS revision trend that is positive (15 up, 1 down for the current fiscal year). However, recent insider sales by the CEO total over $800K, diverging from the analyst signal, and the short interest ratio stands at 65.6% of float. Bottom line: the upgrade removes a key bearish outlier but offers no upside catalyst—traders should view this as a cautious neutral signal.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
2/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
23 (49%)
Hold
19
Sell / Strong Sell
5
Total Analysts
32
Mean PT
$106.25
Median PT
$110.00
High PT
$137.00
Low PT
$81.00
Current Price
$102.28
Implied Upside
+3.9%

Among 47 analysts covering SBUX, 23 rate it Buy (49%), 19 Hold (40%), and 5 Sell (11%). The consensus is Buy-skewed but with a sizable hold camp. Jefferies' Hold call is now aligned with the neutral portion of the consensus, a step up from its previous outlier bearish view.

The consensus mean price target is $106.25, median $110, high $137, and low $81. Current price $102.28 implies +3.9% upside to the mean. Jefferies' $92 target is the 4th lowest among analysts, sitting 13.4% below the mean and 16.4% below the median.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-14 TD Cowen upgrade Buy $120.00
2026-05-06 Stifel maintain Buy $117.00
2026-04-29 UBS maintain Neutral $105.00
2026-04-29 Citigroup maintain Neutral $101.00
2026-04-29 BNP Paribas maintain Underperform $87.00
2026-04-29 RBC Capital maintain Sector Perform $110.00
2026-04-29 Guggenheim maintain Neutral $97.00
2026-04-29 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $115.00
2026-04-29 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $115.00
2026-04-29 DA Davidson maintain Neutral $102.00

In the 30 days leading to this trigger, there was 1 upgrade (this Jefferies call) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are trending positive: the current fiscal year saw 15 upward revisions and just 1 downward in the last 30 days, and the next quarter had 2 up and 1 down over the same period. Estimates are being revised higher overall.

Firm Track Record — Jefferies

Jefferies accuracy: 53% on 2282 calls | avg return: 3.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
BTIG 100% 4/4 9.1% top tier
Jefferies 80% 4/5 -2.6% top tier
Piper Sandler 75% 3/4 2.6% top tier
Wedbush 75% 6/8 6.9% top tier
TD Cowen 74% 14/19 6.6% top tier
Citigroup 69% 9/13 5% top tier
Stifel 67% 6/9 0.1% top tier
UBS 67% 4/6 -0.5% top tier
B of A Securities 60% 3/5 3.6% above average
BMO Capital 60% 3/5 4.2% above average

Jefferies has an 80% accuracy rate on 5 SBUX calls, classifying it as a top-tier firm. However, its average return on those calls is -2.6%, the worst among top-tier firms. The best-rated firm for SBUX is BTIG (100% on 4 calls, +9.1% avg return), while the worst is Evercore ISI Group (50% on 4 calls, +7% avg return).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1q $0.68 $0.61 — $0.74 $9.2B ↑0 ↓0
+1y $3.01 $2.73 — $3.25 $38.3B ↑0 ↓0
0q $0.65 $0.54 — $0.72 $9.1B ↑0 ↓0
0y $2.38 $2.26 — $2.46 $37.6B ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Jim Banks (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
Vestmark Advisory Solutions, Inc. — add (54.2%)
Institutional
Mediolanum International Funds Ltd — doubled (172.4%)
Institutional
WOLVERINE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC — trim (-27.9%)
Short Interest
Short: 2,363,171 | Exempt: 2,781 | TRF Vol: 3,601,361 | Short Ratio: 65.6% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider activity shows a clear bearish divergence: CEO Brady Brewer sold over $590K in three transactions since early April, and another insider (Sara Kelly) sold $210K. No insider buys were recorded. A congressional sell (Jim Banks, $1K-$15K) is negligible. Institutional moves are mixed—Vestmark added 54% and Mediolanum doubled their stake, while Wolverine, Haverford, and Brevan Howard trimmed. Short interest is elevated at 65.6% of float. The insider selling opposes the upgrade signal, reducing the impact of the analyst move.

Actionable Insight

Jefferies' double upgrade is a positive shift that reduces bearish risk, but the still-below-market target and ongoing insider selling argue against aggressive bullish conviction. Neutral-to-slightly-bearish positioning is warranted; wait for a catalyst or insider buying to turn constructive.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

18 reports for SBUX
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 5 of 5 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +4.86%Feb 28, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for SBUX — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 14, 2026
today
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
awaiting T+5
Jun 13, 2026
1d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$105.80 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$103.04 (−2.61%)
Jun 12, 2026
2d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$96.59 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$103.04 (+6.68%)
Jun 12, 2026
2d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$103.04 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$103.04 (+0.00%)
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
Institutional Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$101.01 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$103.04 (+2.01%)
May 31, 2026
14d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$97.60 $91.69▼ −6.06%▼ −6.44%$103.04 (+5.58%)
May 26, 2026
20d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$101.35 $96.51▼ −4.77%▼ −5.86%$103.04 (+1.67%)
May 20, 2026
25d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$104.11 $99.12▼ −4.79%▼ −6.64%$103.04 (−1.02%)
May 15, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$106.76 $103.10▲ +3.43%▲ +4.39%$103.04 (+3.48%)
May 14, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$106.38 $104.11▼ −2.13%▼ −1.42%$103.04 (−3.14%)
Showing 10 of 18

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