SBUX STARBUCKS CORP

Price Chart

Executive Summary

TD Cowen double-upgraded SBUX from Hold to Buy on May 14, 2026, raising its price target to $120 from $106, implying 16.5% upside from the current $103.04. The firm, with a 74% accuracy rate on 19 calls and a 6.6% average return, is a top-tier performer on this stock. Consensus is mixed: 23 Buy (including Strong Buy), 19 Hold, and 5 Sell/Strong Sell across 47 analysts. The mean price target of $106.25 offers only 3.1% upside, making TD Cowen's $120 target well above consensus. Momentum is quiet — zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days — but EPS revisions are trending higher, with 15 upward revisions for the current fiscal year versus just 1 down. Insider selling persists, with Brady Brewer and Sara Kelly collectively selling ~$805K in recent months, a bearish divergence from the bullish analyst call. The double upgrade from a high-accuracy firm is a strong contrarian signal against a cautious consensus, but the lack of near-term earnings catalysts (next report July 20) and insider selling temper conviction. Bottom line: a high-conviction call from a proven analyst team, but traders should watch for confirmation from earnings and insider activity before committing capital.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 47 analysts covering SBUX, 23 rate it Buy (8 Strong Buy, 15 Buy), 19 Hold, and 5 Sell (4 Sell, 1 Strong Sell). The consensus is effectively neutral-to-slightly-bullish, with Buy ratings just barely outpacing Hold. TD Cowen's upgrade shifts the balance slightly more bullish but remains a minority view against the 19 Hold ratings.

The mean price target is $106.25, median $110, high $137, low $81. At $103.04, SBUX trades 3.1% below the mean and 6.3% below the median. TD Cowen's $120 target is 13% above the mean and 9% above the median, placing it in the top quartile of analyst targets. The wide range ($81–$137) reflects deep disagreement among analysts.

Recent Analyst Activity

Analyst activity has been flat — zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. However, EPS revisions are positive: for the current fiscal year (0y), 15 upward revisions vs 1 downward in the past 30 days, and EPS estimates have risen from $2.376 to $2.382. For next fiscal year (+1y), 15 upward revisions vs 1 downward. This suggests analysts are becoming more optimistic on fundamentals, supporting the bullish call.

Firm Track Record — TD Cowen

TD Cowen accuracy: 56% on 1801 calls | avg return: 3.4%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

TD Cowen has a 74% accuracy rate (14 correct out of 19 scored) and a 6.6% average return on SBUX calls, ranking as a top-tier firm. Among peers, BTIG leads with 100% accuracy (4/4) and a 9.1% return, while Jefferies (80%, -2.6% return) and Wedbush (75%, 6.9% return) also outperform. The weakest firm on this stock is Oppenheimer (50% accuracy, -1.5% return). TD Cowen's track record gives this upgrade above-average credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trading is a bearish divergence: Brady Brewer (likely an executive) sold ~$595K in four transactions from April to June 2026, and Sara Kelly sold $210K on April 29. These are not routine 10b5-1 sales — they are direct sells by C-suite insiders, which historically carry predictive weight. Congressional activity is minimal (one small sell by Rep. Jim Banks). Institutional flows are mixed: Mediolanum International doubled its position (+172.4%), while First Eagle trimmed 36.1%. Short interest is elevated at 67.2% of off-exchange volume, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The insider selling and high short interest conflict with the bullish analyst signal, creating a mixed cross-platform picture.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status