TD TORONTO DOMINION BANK

BEARISH Impact: 5/10 Institutional Cluster
Horizon weeks Processed 9d 18h ago
Institutional cluster: 3 buyers, 4 sellers (mixed)
Latest settled — T+5d
TD ▲ +1.94% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -1.94% · α vs SPY -1.50% · entry $116.25 → $118.50
Next anchor: T+20d in 19d
Entry anchored
Jun 10, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.93%
call -0.93% · α -0.39%
$117.33
settled 9d ago
T+5d
+1.94%
call -1.94% · α -1.50%
$118.50
settled 3d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 19d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 3mo

Executive Summary

An institutional cluster in TD shows mixed conviction: 3 buyers (led by UBS doubling its stake and Morgan Stanley adding 28%) accumulated $314.8M, while 4 sellers (led by Norges Bank's full exit of $1.54B) reduced holdings by $1.64B. The net selling pressure of ~$1.32B is dominated by Norges Bank's exit, which overwhelms the buying activity and suggests a bearish tilt among large sovereign and quant funds.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
distributing
Buy Value
$727.7M
Sell Value
$1.6B
Net Flow
-$1.3B

Institutional Positions

Net institutional flow: -$1.3B

▲ Buyers (3)

InstitutionActionChangePosition ValueValue Δ
Morgan Stanley ADD +28% $401.8M $113.3M
UBS DOUBLED +142.5% $317.2M $197.0M
Bridgewater ADD +84.8% $8.8M $4.4M

▼ Sellers (4)

InstitutionActionChangePrev ValueValue Δ
Norges Bank EXIT -100% $1.5B -$1.5B
D.E. Shaw TRIM -35.1% $168.7M -$49.8M
Citadel TRIM -50.6% $87.3M -$40.3M
Two Sigma NEAR_EXIT -94.3% $6.2M -$5.8M

Actionable Insight

The Norges Bank full exit is a significant signal from a sophisticated sovereign fund — monitor for any accompanying regulatory or credit-related disclosures. The buying from passive managers (Morgan Stanley, UBS) likely reflects index rebalancing, not active conviction. The net negative flow suggests institutional sentiment is deteriorating; watch for further 13F filings next quarter to confirm if this trend continues.

Key Facts

  • 3 institutional buyers added $314.8M in new TD positions, led by UBS (doubled to $317.2M) and Morgan Stanley (+28% to $401.8M)
  • 4 institutional sellers reduced holdings by $1.64B, led by Norges Bank's full exit of $1.54B (20.97M shares)
  • Net institutional flow is negative by ~$1.32B, with selling concentrated in sovereign and quant funds
  • Buyers are primarily mega-passive (Morgan Stanley, UBS) and quant (Bridgewater), suggesting index rebalancing rather than active conviction
  • Sellers include a sovereign wealth fund (Norges Bank) and three quant funds (D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma), indicating potential risk-off or thesis deterioration

Financial Impact

Net institutional selling of approximately $1.32B, with Norges Bank's $1.54B exit accounting for the vast majority of the outflow

institutional ownershipfloat

Risk Factors

  • Norges Bank's exit may reflect macro or regulatory concerns specific to Canadian banks or TD's U.S. operations
  • Quant fund trimming (D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Two Sigma) could indicate systematic risk models flagging TD
  • 13F data is 45+ days stale; positions may have been reversed since quarter-end

Market Snapshot

Exchange
OTC
Sector
Commercial Banks, NEC
Analyst Consensus
74% bullish (23 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)inst-cluster-TD-2025-Q3
4 reports for TD
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for TD — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 11, 2026
9d ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$116.25 $118.50▼ −1.94%▼ −1.50%
Mar 25, 2026
12w ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$93.56 $93.96▲ +0.42%▲ +0.67%
Feb 28, 2026
16w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$97.49 $94.57▼ −2.99%▼ −1.78%
Feb 26, 2026
16w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$98.00 $96.31▼ −1.73%▼ −0.60%
Showing 4 of 4

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (29h 30m)

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