TMO THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Citigroup upgraded TMO from Neutral to Buy on Dec 11, 2025, raising its price target to $660 from $580 (+14% PT move). The action was part of a 12-firm cluster on TMO, but Citigroup's track record is poor: 25% accuracy on 4 calls with -14.1% avg return. Consensus remains overwhelmingly bullish: 31 Buy/Strong Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell. Mean price target is $620.54, implying +29.5% upside from the current $478.96. EPS revisions are mixed — current quarter estimates have fallen in the last 30 days (12 down vs 2 up), while FY2026 estimates have risen (19 up vs 1 down). Insider selling totals ~$1.2M in recent months, but institutional buying is heavy (FMR +90%, Norges new $3B position). Short interest is elevated at 58% short ratio, a bearish divergence. The upgrade adds to the bullish consensus, but the firm's low accuracy and countervailing cross signals reduce conviction. Upcoming earnings on July 21, 2026, provide a near-term catalyst.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Full consensus: 11 Strong Buy, 20 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. That is 31 Buy-rated (89%) and 4 Hold (11%). The consensus is decisively bullish and has been stable, with no recent rating changes in the last 30 days.

Current price: $478.96. Mean target: $620.54 (upside +29.5%). Median target: $620 (upside +29.4%). High target: $750 (+56.6%). Low target: $520 (+8.6%). Citigroup's $660 target is above the mean and median, ranking in the top quartile. The wide spread between high and low ($230) reflects some divergence in views but overall bullish conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades. Recent actions include maintains by Stifel (Buy, PT $600), Baird (Outperform, PT $639), Barclays (Overweight, PT $625), and Evercore (Outperform, PT $575). EPS revisions: current quarter (0q) had 12 downward revisions vs 2 upward (negative). Next quarter (+1q) had 14 upward vs 3 downward (positive). FY2026 (0y) had 19 upward vs 1 downward (positive). FY2027 (+1y) had 19 upward vs 0 downward (positive). Near-term softness is offset by improving longer-term estimates.

Firm Track Record — Citigroup

Citigroup accuracy: 55% on 4355 calls | avg return: 4.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Citigroup has a 25% accuracy rate on 4 TMO calls with an average return of -14.1%, placing it in the bottom tier. Top-tier firms include Argus Research (100% on 2, +9.5% avg return), Baird (83% on 6, +10.5%), and Barclays (80% on 10, +8.5%). The worst-performing firms are Morgan Stanley (20% on 5, -13.7%) and Citigroup itself. This track record undermines the upgrade's credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades: 4 sells totaling ~$1.2M in the past 3 months, including a $802K sale by Michael Shafer on Mar 11, 2026. Congressional activity: 1 buy by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) on Mar 6, 2026, valued at $1,001-$15,000. Institutional changes: major net buying — FMR added 29% and later 90%, Norges Bank opened a $3.07B position, Two Sigma added 32.2%, BofA added 34.9%. Short interest: 1.376M shares short, TRF volume 2.374M, short ratio 58.0% — elevated and a bearish divergence against the bullish analyst consensus. The institutional buying converges with the upgrade, but insider selling and high short interest create a cautionary signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status