TSLA Tesla, Inc.

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Freedom Broker upgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Hold from Sell on October 24, 2025, raising its price target to $406 from $338, a 20.1% increase. The upgrade comes as part of a 20-firm cluster action on TSLA, with the stock currently trading at $435.79, above the consensus mean target of $411.89. Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the middle tier among covering firms. The consensus on TSLA is mixed: 29 Buy (including Strong Buy), 24 Hold, and 8 Sell (including Strong Sell) out of 61 analysts. The new $406 target sits below the median of $450 and the high of $600, but above the low of $123. EPS revisions over the past 30 days show more downgrades than upgrades across all periods, with 14 downgrades vs 7 upgrades for the current quarter and 18 vs 7 for the current fiscal year. Insider selling has been persistent, with four sales totaling over $3.2 million in the past three months, including a $1.35 million sale by VP Vaibhav Taneja on May 13, 2026. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank initiated a massive $17.1 billion position, while Bank of America trimmed 28.2%. Short interest is elevated at 63.1% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish sentiment. The bottom line: Freedom Broker's upgrade from Sell to Hold is a modest positive signal, but the stock trades above the new target, and the broader analyst consensus and insider selling suggest limited near-term upside.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Out of 61 analysts covering TSLA, 29 (47.5%) rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 (39.3%) Hold, and 8 (13.1%) Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus is tilted bullish but with a significant hold contingent, reflecting uncertainty about valuation and growth.

The mean price target is $411.89, median $450, high $600, low $123. At $435.79, TSLA trades 5.8% above the mean target, implying limited upside. Freedom Broker's $406 target is 1.4% below the mean and 9.8% below the current price, making it one of the more conservative estimates.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the past 30 days, there have been 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades on TSLA. EPS revisions show a net negative trend: for the current quarter, 7 revisions up vs 14 down; for the current fiscal year, 7 up vs 18 down. Estimates are being revised lower across all periods.

Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker

Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an average return of 11.8%, placing it in the middle tier. Top-performing firms on TSLA include Jefferies (100% on 3 calls, avg return 53.8%), RBC Capital (93% on 14 calls, 33.7%), and Piper Sandler (85% on 13 calls, 32.7%). Freedom Broker's accuracy is below these top-tier firms.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades show consistent selling: four sales totaling over $3.2 million in the past three months, including a $1.35 million sale by VP Vaibhav Taneva on May 13, 2026. No congressional trades are reported. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank initiated a $17.1 billion position (bullish), while Bank of America trimmed 28.2% (bearish). Short interest is elevated at 63.1% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish sentiment. The insider selling and high short interest diverge from the upgrade signal, reducing its impact.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status