TWOD TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP.

BULLISH Impact: 7/10 DEFA14A
Horizon weeks Filed Jun 8, 2026 Processed 12d 20h ago SEC 0001104659-26-071174
Proxy solicitation materials
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
TWOD ▼ -0.16% at T+5d
LONG call ✗ call lost -0.16% · α vs SPY -2.27% · entry $25.34 → $25.30
Next anchor: T+20d in 16d
Last close $25.32 (close Jun 18) · -0.08% from $25.34 entry
Entry anchored
Jun 4, 03:57 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.12%
call +0.12% · α +0.41%
$25.37
settled 12d ago
T+5d
-0.16%
call -0.16% · α -2.27%
$25.30
settled 6d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 16d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Two Harbors Investment Corp. management filed additional definitive proxy soliciting materials urging stockholders to vote FOR the all-cash merger with CrossCountry Mortgage (CCM) at $12.00/share, directly rebutting a competing all-stock/partial-cash proposal from UWM Corporation (UWMC). The filing provides a quantitative comparison highlighting UWMC stock's decline to a $2.59 all-time low (making its default stock consideration worth ~$6.04/share) and UWMC's deteriorating credit profile, while emphasizing CCM's secured regulatory approvals (46 of 53) and fully-financed, election-free cash offer. The special meeting is postponed to June 23, 2026, with CCM agreeing to a waiver of non-solicitation through June 12 to allow engagement with UWMC on an all-cash proposal.

Actionable Insight

TWO stock likely trades near CCM's $12.00 offer price minus deal-risk discount. The June 12 deadline for UWMC to submit an all-cash binding proposal is the key near-term catalyst — monitor for any UWMC counteroffer or statement. If no all-cash UWMC proposal emerges by June 12, the CCM deal probability increases sharply and the stock should converge toward $12.00. A failure to secure stockholder approval on June 23 would likely send TWO shares below the CCM offer as no other deal is in place.

Key Facts

  • CCM offers $12.00 per share all-cash to all TWO stockholders plus a pro-rated stub dividend; no election required; fully financed.
  • CCM has secured 85% of required regulatory approvals (46 of 53) and obtained early termination of HSR waiting period.
  • Special meeting postponed to June 23, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • UWMC's stock closed at $2.59 all-time low on June 5, 2026; default stock consideration for non-electing holders worth ~$6.04/share.
  • UWMC has no signed agreement with TWO; its proposal has a stock default structure estimated to catch 25-30% of stockholders.
  • UWMC leverage increased from 2.45x (Q3 2025) to 3.18x (Q1 2026); Fitch downgraded credit outlook twice in four months.
  • Bloomberg Corporate Default Risk Model shows UWMC 1-year default probability of 5.75%, up from 1.2% in December 2025.
  • Board unanimously recommends FOR the CCM transaction on the WHITE proxy card.
  • CCM agreed to waive non-solicitation provisions through June 12, 2026 to permit engagement with UWMC on an all-cash proposal.

Financial Impact

CCM offers $12.00 per share cash; UWMC competing proposal headlines $12.50 but default stock consideration value ~$6.04/share based on UWMC closing price of $2.59 on June 5, 2026; UWMC stock declined approximately 50% from $5.12 in December 2025.

stock pricemerger consideration valuedeal certaintycredit risk

Risk Factors

  • Stockholders might reject the CCM deal on June 23, leaving TWO without an actionable transaction (CCM has said $12.00 is final and may walk away).
  • UWMC could theoretically still surface a fully-financed, all-cash binding offer before June 12, creating a higher bid scenario.
  • Regulatory approvals: 7 of 53 still outstanding; any denial could jeopardize closure timeline.
  • Shareholder litigation related to the CCM transaction could delay or derail approval.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Analyst Consensus
0% bullish (16 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
DEFA14A Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-071174
Document: 0001104659-26-071174-index-headers.html0001104659-26-071174
Document: 0001104659-26-071174-index.html0001104659-26-071174
Document: 0001104659-26-071174.txt0001104659-26-071174
25 reports for TWOD
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 11 of 11 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +2.09%Mar 27, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TWOD — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 8, 2026
12d ago
DEFA14A
MIXED ★ 7/10
$25.34 $25.30▼ −0.16%▼ −2.27%$25.32 (−0.08%)
Jun 8, 2026
12d ago
DEFA14A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$25.34 $25.30▼ −0.16%▼ −2.27%$25.32 (−0.08%)
Jun 8, 2026
12d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$25.34 $25.30▼ −0.16%▼ −2.27%$25.32 (−0.08%)
Jun 3, 2026
17d ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$25.39 $25.39· 0.00%▲ +3.82%$25.32 (−0.28%)
May 19, 2026
4w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$25.24 $25.41▲ +0.65%▼ −1.15%$25.32 (+0.32%)
May 19, 2026
4w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$25.24 $25.41▲ +0.65%▼ −1.15%$25.32 (+0.32%)
May 15, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$25.30 $25.30· 0.00%▲ +0.96%$25.32 (−0.08%)
May 15, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$25.30 $25.30· 0.00%▲ +0.96%$25.32 (−0.08%)
May 14, 2026
5w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$25.30 $25.30· 0.00%▼ −0.96%$25.32 (+0.08%)
May 14, 2026
5w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$25.26 $25.27▲ +0.04%▲ +0.76%$25.32 (+0.24%)
Showing 10 of 25

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (29h 31m)

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