TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

BULLISH Impact: 6/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-TXN-barclays-20260423
Barclays double upgrade: Underweight → Equal-Weight
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
TXN ▲ +8.16% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +8.16% · α vs SPY +3.52% · entry $281.89 → $304.88
Next anchor: T+60d in 6w
Last close $290.90 (close Jun 8) · +3.20% from $281.89 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 23, 09:19 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.71%
call -1.71% · α -2.50%
$277.06
settled 7w ago
T+5d
-4.49%
call -4.49% · α -5.97%
$269.22
settled 6w ago
T+20d
+8.16%
call +8.16% · α +3.52%
$304.88
settled 20d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 6w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Barclays executed a rare double upgrade from Underweight to Equal-Weight with a 43% price target increase to $250, now 5.7% above current price of $236.31. The broader consensus remains mixed at 52% Buy-rated (16 of 31 analysts), with a mean PT of $228.71 — Barclays' target sits in the 84th percentile. Firm has 60% accuracy on 5 calls, above its 54% historical rate, and average return of 8.6%. Four upgrades in 30 days signal improving sentiment, while EPS estimates are rising: +3 revisions up vs. 1 down in past month. Contrarian signal diverges from Goldman Sachs' maintained Sell rating and B of A's trim of position by 39.4%. Bottom line: high-conviction upgrade from above-average firm amid strengthening fundamentals and institutional accumulation.

Impact Score

Base Score
4/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
6/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
16 (36%)
Hold
22
Sell / Strong Sell
6
Total Analysts
31
Mean PT
$228.71
Median PT
$235.00
High PT
$275.00
Low PT
$175.00
Current Price
$236.31
Implied Upside
-3.2%

Of 31 analysts, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy (52%), 22 Hold (71% including Hold), 6 Sell or Strong Sell (19%). Consensus direction is neutral-biased with no clear momentum; however, 4 of the last 5 actions were upgrades, indicating recent positive drift.

Price target mean is $228.71, median $235, range $175–$275. Current price at $236.31 implies 0.7% upside to mean. Barclays' $250 target is 9.3% above mean and 5.7% above current price, placing it in the top tier of bullish calls. Rosenblatt's $330 and Baird's $300 remain the most aggressive.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-23 Barclays upgrade Equal-Weight $250.00
2026-04-23 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $330.00
2026-04-23 Baird maintain Outperform $300.00
2026-04-23 Goldman Sachs maintain Sell $200.00
2026-04-23 B of A Securities upgrade Buy $320.00
2026-04-17 Mizuho upgrade Neutral $215.00
2026-04-09 Stifel upgrade Buy $250.00
2026-02-23 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $250.00
2026-02-05 Rosenblatt maintain Buy $240.00
2026-01-28 Jefferies maintain Hold $210.00

4 upgrades and 0 downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS estimates are trending up: +3 revisions in the last 30 days vs. 1 down for current year (0y), and +3 up vs. 0 down for next year (+1y). Current quarter (0q) saw 2 upward revisions, 1 downward. No revisions in past 7 days.

Firm Track Record — Barclays

Barclays accuracy: 54% on 6761 calls | avg return: 3.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Baird 80% 4/5 10.2% top tier
JP Morgan 80% 4/5 8.6% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 75% 3/4 9.3% top tier
Keybanc 67% 2/3 1.6% top tier
Benchmark 67% 6/9 2.8% top tier
Truist Securities 67% 6/9 3.8% top tier
Stifel 67% 4/6 10.9% top tier
Jefferies 67% 2/3 8.6% top tier
Cantor Fitzgerald 64% 7/11 4.1% top tier
Barclays 60% 3/5 8.6% above average

Barclays has 60% accuracy (3 of 5 calls correct), above its long-term 54% (3,624 of 6,761) average, with an 8.6% average return on rated stocks. Among 15 firms, Barclays ranks 10th in accuracy but 4th in average return. Top performers include Stifel (67%, 10.9% return) and Baird (80%, 10.2%).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1q $1.81 $1.59 — $2.10 $5.2B ↑0 ↓0
0y $6.46 $5.85 — $7.28 $19.6B ↑1 ↓0
+1y $7.74 $6.88 — $9.71 $21.7B ↑2 ↓0
0q $1.58 $1.49 — $1.66 $4.9B ↑1 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Congressional
Kevin Hern (republican) — sell $500,001 - $1,000,000
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-39.4%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — doubled (2707.5%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,785,739 | Exempt: 1,556 | TRF Vol: 3,186,523 | Short Ratio: 56.0% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Signal diverges from insider and congressional activity: Rep. Kevin Hern sold $500K–$1M on March 18. Institutionally, BANK OF AMERICA CORP trimmed position by 39.4%, but Norges Bank re-entered with $2.5B stake and Renaissance Technologies initiated $137M position. Short interest remains elevated at 56.0% short ratio, suggesting ongoing bearish overhang despite recent upgrades.

Actionable Insight

Barclays’ double upgrade from an above-average return firm, combined with rising EPS estimates and new institutional accumulation, outweighs recent insider selling. Position for upside toward $250 over next 60 days, especially if next earnings (July 20) beats.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for TXN
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +8.16%Apr 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TXN — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$208.94 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1$290.90 (+39.23%)
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$308.04 $304.96▼ −1.00%▼ −1.40%$290.90 (−5.56%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$215.69 $218.93▲ +1.50%▲ +1.69%$290.90 (+34.87%)
May 23, 2026
17d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$281.89 $277.06▼ −1.71%▼ −2.50%$290.90 (+3.20%)
May 23, 2026
17d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$281.89 $277.06▼ −1.71%▼ −2.50%$290.90 (+3.20%)
May 22, 2026
18d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$309.46 $323.83▲ +4.64%▲ +4.06%$290.90 (−6.00%)
May 17, 2026
23d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$229.18 $233.57▲ +1.92%▲ +2.11%$290.90 (+26.93%)
May 15, 2026
25d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$299.77 $302.34▲ +0.86%▲ +1.51%$290.90 (−2.96%)
May 11, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$297.62 $294.65▼ −1.00%▼ −0.86%$290.90 (−2.26%)
May 9, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 4/10
$214.95 $214.54▼ −0.19%▼ −0.13%$290.90 (+35.34%)
Showing 10 of 20

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