TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Stifel double-upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) from Hold to Buy on April 9, raising its price target to $250 from $215, a 16.3% increase. The new target sits well below the consensus mean of $290.33 and the current price of $285.06, implying a 12.3% downside from today's level. Stifel has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,792 calls with a 4.3% average return, ranking as a top-tier firm on TXN with 67% accuracy on 6 calls. The consensus is mixed: 19 Buy (58%), 23 Hold (70%), 3 Sell (9%) from 33 analysts. EPS revisions are overwhelmingly positive — 22 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current quarter and 27 for the next fiscal year, with zero downward revisions. Insider selling is heavy, with five executives selling over $18M in May, including CFO Rafael Lizardi ($9.9M) and CEO Haviv Ilan (not listed but likely). Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of float, signaling bearish positioning. The Stifel upgrade is contrarian — a bullish call from a high-accuracy firm at a price above its own target — but the heavy insider selling and high short interest create a conflicting signal. Traders should treat this as a cautious bullish signal given the divergence between analyst upgrades and insider exits.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Consensus from 33 analysts: 7 Strong Buy (21%), 12 Buy (36%), 23 Hold (70%), 2 Sell (6%), 1 Strong Sell (3%). The net Buy count is 19 (58%) vs 3 Sell (9%), but the majority (70%) are Hold-rated. The consensus is cautiously optimistic but not overwhelmingly bullish.

Price targets: mean $290.33, median $300, high $400, low $200. Current price $285.06 implies 1.8% upside to the mean and 5.2% upside to the median. Stifel's $250 PT is the second-lowest among all firms, well below the consensus mean and median, indicating a bearish relative view despite the upgrade.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the last 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Stifel) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 22 upward revisions for the current quarter and 27 for the next fiscal year in the last 30 days, with zero downward revisions. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods, a bullish fundamental signal.

Firm Track Record — Stifel

Stifel accuracy: 54% on 2792 calls | avg return: 4.3%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Stifel has a 54% accuracy rate on 2,792 scored calls with a 4.3% average return. On TXN specifically, it is 4-for-6 (67% accuracy), ranking as a top-tier firm. The best-performing firms on TXN are Baird (80% on 5 calls, 10.2% avg return) and JP Morgan (80% on 5 calls, 8.6% avg return). The worst is TD Cowen (50% on 4 calls, -0.8% avg return). Stifel's TXN track record is above average.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trades are heavily bearish: five executives sold over $18M in May, including CFO Rafael Lizardi ($9.9M), EVP Craighead Martin ($3.1M), and EVP Ahmad Bahai ($1.5M). No insider buys were recorded. Congressional activity is mixed: Rep. Thomas Kean Jr (R) bought $1K-$15K in April, while Rep. Kevin Hern (R) sold $500K-$1M in March. Institutional changes are mixed: Norges Bank exited a position, Bank of America trimmed 39.4%, but Two Sigma doubled its position (+2,707%) and Renaissance Technologies initiated a new $136.6M stake. Short interest is 55.2% of float, extremely high, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The analyst upgrade diverges from insider selling and short interest, creating a conflicting signal.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status