TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC

MIXED Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-TXN-bofasecu-20260128
15 firms acted on TXN: B of A Securities, Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, B of A Securities, Wolfe Research, Seaport Global, TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs, Seaport Global, Barclays, Baird, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Jefferies
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
TXN ▲ +28.45% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +28.45% · α vs SPY +25.77% · entry $215.69 → $277.06
Last close $290.90 (close Jun 8) · +34.87% from $215.69 entry
Entry anchored
Jan 28, 06:47 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.50%
call +1.50% · α +1.69%
$218.93
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
+3.31%
call +3.31% · α +4.64%
$222.84
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-1.45%
call -1.45% · α -0.59%
$212.56
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
+28.45%
call +28.45% · α +25.77%
$277.06
settled 7w ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

B of A Securities upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) two notches from Underperform to Neutral on January 28, 2026, as part of a 15-firm analyst cluster. The firm raised its price target 27% to $235, but the new target implies 16% downside from the current price of $281.08. B of A has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,282 calls and a 5.1% average return. Consensus is hold-skewed with 50% Hold ratings; mean price target is $274.94, slightly below the current price. EPS revisions have been sharply higher over the past 30 days, with 22 upward revisions for the current quarter and 27 for the fiscal year. However, insider selling is heavy—five executives sold over $10M in the past week—and short interest is elevated at 56%. The upgrade removes a bearish outlier but does not signal strong conviction, as the new target lags both the market price and consensus. With earnings due July 20, traders should weigh the positive revision momentum against the bearish internal and derivative signals.

Impact Score

Base Score
3/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
16 (36%)
Hold
22
Sell / Strong Sell
6
Total Analysts
32
Mean PT
$274.94
Median PT
$276.50
High PT
$330.00
Low PT
$200.00
Current Price
$281.08
Implied Upside
-2.2%

Among 44 analysts covering TXN, 16 (36%) rate Buy, 22 (50%) rate Hold, and 6 (14%) rate Sell. The consensus is hold-skewed, with B of A's move to Neutral aligning with the majority view.

Mean price target is $274.94, median $276.50, high $330, low $200. Current price $281.08 is 2.2% above the mean target, implying slight downside. B of A's $235 target is the 6th lowest among 32 analysts and well below the consensus mean.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-23 UBS maintain Buy $295.00
2026-04-23 Citigroup maintain Buy $280.00
2026-04-23 JP Morgan maintain Overweight $280.00
2026-04-23 Jefferies maintain Hold $260.00
2026-04-23 Truist Securities maintain Hold $278.00
2026-04-23 TD Cowen maintain Buy $300.00
2026-04-23 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $280.00
2026-04-23 Citigroup maintain Buy $280.00
2026-04-23 Stifel maintain Buy $290.00
2026-04-23 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $316.00

In the last 30 days, TXN has seen 4 upgrades and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: for the current quarter, 22 revisions up vs 0 down in 30 days; for the fiscal year, 27 up vs 0 down. The current quarter EPS estimate rose from $1.56 to $1.92 in 30 days, and the fiscal year estimate jumped from $6.41 to $7.69.

Firm Track Record — B of A Securities

B of A Securities accuracy: 54% on 3282 calls | avg return: 5.1%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Baird 80% 4/5 10.2% top tier
JP Morgan 80% 4/5 8.6% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 75% 3/4 9.3% top tier
Keybanc 67% 2/3 1.6% top tier
Benchmark 67% 6/9 2.8% top tier
Truist Securities 67% 6/9 3.8% top tier
Stifel 67% 4/6 10.9% top tier
Jefferies 67% 2/3 8.6% top tier
Cantor Fitzgerald 64% 7/11 4.1% top tier
Barclays 60% 3/5 8.6% above average

B of A Securities has a 54% accuracy rate on 3,282 analyst calls with an average return of 5.1%. On TXN specifically, they are 50% accurate (2 correct out of 4 calls). Compared to top-tier firms like Baird (80% on 5 calls) and JP Morgan (80% on 5 calls), B of A's track record is below average among covering firms.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
+1q $2.12 $1.86 — $2.34 $5.6B ↑20 ↓0
0y $7.69 $6.54 — $8.29 $21.0B ↑26 ↓0
+1y $8.84 $7.13 — $12.00 $23.1B ↑26 ↓0
0q $1.92 $1.66 — $2.04 $5.2B ↑21 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Kevin Hern (republican) — sell $500,001 - $1,000,000
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-39.4%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — doubled (2707.5%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,785,739 | Exempt: 1,556 | TRF Vol: 3,186,523 | Short Ratio: 56.0% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trading shows heavy selling: 5 executives sold over $10M combined in the week ending April 29. A Republican congressman sold $500k–$1M in March. Institutional moves are mixed: Bank of America Corp trimmed 39.4% ($2B position), while Norges Bank took a new $2.5B stake. Short interest stands at 56.0% of float, signaling persistent bearish sentiment. This diverges sharply from the positive earnings revision trend and analyst upgrade activity.

Actionable Insight

The upgrade removes a bearish outlier, but with the PT below market, heavy insider selling, and high short interest, the stock faces headwinds. Traders should watch for earnings on July 20; the strong revision trend may support the stock, but the price is already above consensus targets.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for TXN
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 4 of 4 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +8.16%Apr 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for TXN — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$208.94 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1$290.90 (+39.23%)
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$308.04 $304.96▼ −1.00%▼ −1.40%$290.90 (−5.56%)
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$215.69 $218.93▲ +1.50%▲ +1.69%$290.90 (+34.87%)
May 23, 2026
17d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$281.89 $277.06▼ −1.71%▼ −2.50%$290.90 (+3.20%)
May 23, 2026
17d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$281.89 $277.06▼ −1.71%▼ −2.50%$290.90 (+3.20%)
May 22, 2026
18d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$309.46 $323.83▲ +4.64%▲ +4.06%$290.90 (−6.00%)
May 17, 2026
23d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$229.18 $233.57▲ +1.92%▲ +2.11%$290.90 (+26.93%)
May 15, 2026
25d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$299.77 $302.34▲ +0.86%▲ +1.51%$290.90 (−2.96%)
May 11, 2026
4w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$297.62 $294.65▼ −1.00%▼ −0.86%$290.90 (−2.26%)
May 9, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 4/10
$214.95 $214.54▼ −0.19%▼ −0.13%$290.90 (+35.34%)
Showing 10 of 20

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