TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Mizuho upgraded NVIDIA from Underperform to Neutral on April 17, 2026, raising its price target 34% from $160 to $215, though the new target remains 29% below the current $302.73. The call is a contrarian upgrade from a firm with a 52% accuracy rate on 2,227 calls and a 4.7% average return. Consensus is heavily bullish with 18 Buy ratings (56%) and 24 Hold (75% of total), but the stock trades 7% above the mean target of $283.94. Momentum is strong: 2 upgrades, 0 downgrades in 30 days, and EPS revisions are sharply higher — 29 upward revisions in the last 30 days for the current fiscal year. Insider selling is heavy and concentrated among C-suite executives, including $9.9M from CFO Lizardi and $5.6M from EVP Ilan Haviv, creating a bearish divergence with the analyst upgrade. Short interest at 56.2% of TRF volume is elevated, suggesting significant bearish positioning. The bottom line: Mizuho's upgrade is a notable reversal from its prior bearish stance, but the target is still well below market, and insider selling undermines conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 56% Buy (7 Strong Buy + 11 Buy), 75% Hold (24 Hold), 6% Sell (2 Sell + 1 Strong Sell) across 32 analysts. The consensus is clearly bullish, but the heavy Hold weighting (75%) indicates many analysts are cautious at current levels.
Mean target $283.94, median $287.50, high $340, low $200. Current price $302.73 is 7% above the mean and 5% above the median. Mizuho's $215 target is the second-lowest among all analysts, well below the low of $200. The firm is significantly below consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $295.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Jefferies | maintain | Hold | $260.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $278.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Stifel | maintain | Buy | $290.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 2 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 29 upward revisions in 30 days for the current fiscal year (0 down), and 28 up for next year (0 down). Current-quarter EPS estimates rose 22% from $1.57 to $1.92 in 30 days. Momentum is clearly bullish.
Firm Track Record — Mizuho
Mizuho accuracy: 52% on 2227 calls | avg return: 4.7%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 80% | 4/5 | 10.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 80% | 4/5 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 75% | 3/4 | 9.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 2/3 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 6/9 | 2.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 67% | 6/9 | 3.8% | top tier |
| Stifel | 67% | 4/6 | 10.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 67% | 2/3 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 64% | 7/11 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 8.6% | above average |
Mizuho has a 52% accuracy rate on 2,227 calls with a 4.7% average return — below average among firms covering NVDA. Top-tier firms include Baird (80% on 5 calls, +10.2% avg return), JP Morgan (80% on 5, +8.6%), and Evercore ISI (75% on 4, +9.3%). Mizuho's track record is mediocre, reducing the weight of this upgrade.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $7.67 | $6.54 — $8.29 | $21.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.89 | $7.13 — $12.00 | $23.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.92 | $1.66 — $2.04 | $5.2B | ↑21 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.12 | $1.86 — $2.34 | $5.6B | ↑20 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: CFO Lizardi sold $9.9M, EVP Ilan Haviv sold $5.6M, and three other C-suite executives sold $1.5M-$2.6M each — all in May 2026. This is a strong bearish signal opposing the upgrade. Institutional activity is mixed: Bank of America trimmed 39.4% ($2B position), while Norges Bank opened a $2.5B new position and Renaissance Technologies opened $137M. Short interest at 56.2% of TRF volume is elevated, indicating significant bearish bets. Congressional: Rep. Kevin Hern (R) sold $500K-$1M in March.
Actionable Insight
Mizuho's upgrade is a contrarian reversal but lacks conviction given a target 29% below market and the firm's mediocre track record. Heavy insider selling and elevated short interest suggest caution — traders should not chase this call without additional bullish catalysts.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $208.94 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $290.90 (+39.23%) |
|
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
|
8-K
| $308.04 $304.96 | ▼ −1.00% | ▼ −1.40% | $290.90 (−5.56%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $215.69 $218.93 | ▲ +1.50% | ▲ +1.69% | $290.90 (+34.87%) |
|
May 23, 2026
17d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $281.89 $277.06 | ▼ −1.71% | ▼ −2.50% | $290.90 (+3.20%) |
|
May 23, 2026
17d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $281.89 $277.06 | ▼ −1.71% | ▼ −2.50% | $290.90 (+3.20%) |
|
May 22, 2026
18d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $309.46 $323.83 | ▲ +4.64% | ▲ +4.06% | $290.90 (−6.00%) |
|
May 17, 2026
23d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $229.18 $233.57 | ▲ +1.92% | ▲ +2.11% | $290.90 (+26.93%) |
|
May 15, 2026
25d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $299.77 $302.34 | ▲ +0.86% | ▲ +1.51% | $290.90 (−2.96%) |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $297.62 $294.65 | ▼ −1.00% | ▼ −0.86% | $290.90 (−2.26%) |
|
May 9, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $214.95 $214.54 | ▼ −0.19% | ▼ −0.13% | $290.90 (+35.34%) |
US Market Status
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