TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Barclays double-upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) from Underweight to Equal-Weight on April 23, 2026, raising its price target to $250 from $175 — a 42.9% increase in target but still implying 19.2% downside from the current $309.21. The call is contrarian: consensus is 56% Buy (18 of 45 analysts), with a mean target of $285.34 and median of $297.50. Barclays has a 60% accuracy rate on 5 TXN calls with an average return of 8.6%, placing it above average among covering firms. The upgrade comes amid strong upward EPS revision momentum — 30-day revisions show 22 up, 0 down for the current quarter and 29 up, 0 down for the current year — and a recent Seaport Global upgrade to Buy with a $400 target. However, insider selling is heavy: CFO Lizardi sold $9.9M on May 14, and four other executives sold $11.2M combined in May. Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of off-exchange volume. Bottom line: a contrarian double upgrade from a mid-accuracy firm, but the massive insider selling and bearish PT relative to consensus temper conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 45 analysts covering TXN, 18 rate it Buy (40%), 24 Hold (53%), and 3 Sell (7%). The consensus leans neutral-to-bullish, with 56% of ratings at Buy or Strong Buy. Barclays' Equal-Weight is in line with the majority Hold view but below the consensus tilt toward Buy.
Current price: $309.21. Mean target: $285.34 (7.7% downside). Median: $297.50 (3.8% downside). High: $340 (10% upside). Low: $200 (35.3% downside). Barclays' $250 target is 12.4% below the mean and 16% below the median, making it one of the most bearish on the Street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Seaport Global | upgrade | Buy | $400.00 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $300.00 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | UBS | maintain | Buy | $295.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $280.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Jefferies | maintain | Hold | $260.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Truist Securities | maintain | Hold | $278.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $300.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | maintain | Neutral | $280.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Barclays), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 22 up, 0 down for the current quarter; 29 up, 0 down for the current year. Estimates have been revised sharply higher over the past 30 days — current quarter EPS estimate rose from $1.57 to $1.92, and full-year from $6.43 to $7.67.
Firm Track Record — Barclays
Barclays accuracy: 54% on 6761 calls | avg return: 3.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 80% | 4/5 | 10.2% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 80% | 4/5 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 75% | 3/4 | 9.3% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 2/3 | 1.6% | top tier |
| Benchmark | 67% | 6/9 | 2.8% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 67% | 6/9 | 3.8% | top tier |
| Stifel | 67% | 4/6 | 10.9% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 67% | 2/3 | 8.6% | top tier |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 64% | 7/11 | 4.1% | top tier |
| Barclays | 60% | 3/5 | 8.6% | above average |
Barclays has a 60% accuracy rate on 5 TXN-rated calls with an average return of 8.6%, ranking above average among covering firms. Top performers on TXN include Baird (80% on 5 calls, avg return 10.2%) and JP Morgan (80% on 5 calls, avg return 8.6%). Weakest: TD Cowen (50% on 4 calls, avg return -0.8%).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 20, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.92 | $1.66 — $2.04 | $5.2B | ↑21 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.12 | $1.86 — $2.34 | $5.6B | ↑20 ↓0 |
| 0y | $7.67 | $6.54 — $8.29 | $21.0B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $8.91 | $7.13 — $12.00 | $23.3B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: CFO Lizardi sold $9.9M on May 14, and four other executives sold $11.2M combined in May. This is a strong bearish signal that diverges from the analyst upgrade. Congressional activity: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK) sold $500K-$1M on March 18. Institutional moves are mixed: Bank of America trimmed 39.4% of its $2B position, while Norges Bank and Renaissance Technologies initiated new positions. Short interest is elevated at 55.2% of off-exchange volume, indicating bearish positioning.
Actionable Insight
The Barclays upgrade removes a bearish outlier but does not signal a bullish turn — the $250 target still implies downside. Heavy insider selling and elevated short interest argue against chasing the upgrade. Wait for either a higher-conviction catalyst (e.g., earnings on July 20) or insider buying before taking a position.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $208.94 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | $290.90 (+39.23%) |
|
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
|
8-K
| $308.04 $304.96 | ▼ −1.00% | ▼ −1.40% | $290.90 (−5.56%) |
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $215.69 $218.93 | ▲ +1.50% | ▲ +1.69% | $290.90 (+34.87%) |
|
May 23, 2026
17d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $281.89 $277.06 | ▼ −1.71% | ▼ −2.50% | $290.90 (+3.20%) |
|
May 23, 2026
17d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $281.89 $277.06 | ▼ −1.71% | ▼ −2.50% | $290.90 (+3.20%) |
|
May 22, 2026
18d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $309.46 $323.83 | ▲ +4.64% | ▲ +4.06% | $290.90 (−6.00%) |
|
May 17, 2026
23d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $229.18 $233.57 | ▲ +1.92% | ▲ +2.11% | $290.90 (+26.93%) |
|
May 15, 2026
25d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $299.77 $302.34 | ▲ +0.86% | ▲ +1.51% | $290.90 (−2.96%) |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $297.62 $294.65 | ▼ −1.00% | ▼ −0.86% | $290.90 (−2.26%) |
|
May 9, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $214.95 $214.54 | ▼ −0.19% | ▼ −0.13% | $290.90 (+35.34%) |
US Market Status
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